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哈里斯民调支持率领先特朗普、这些类股票”恐变天“

Harris's poll support rate leads Trump, these stocks may change direction.

FX168 ·  Aug 21 21:33

Investors are working hard to cope with the market impacts that Kamala Harris's election as president may bring, which could include putting pressure on corporate profits by increasing taxes, as well as putting pressure on consumer necessities and promoting the development of the solar energy industry.

After President Joe Biden's withdrawal, Harris made the competition with Republican candidate Donald Trump even more fierce, and Harris's nomination became the focus of the Democratic National Convention.

Investors' views on the market are usually influenced by factors such as economic strength and interest rate trends, but the question of how the White House led by Harris will handle policies, regulations, and taxes remains prominent.

Frank Kelly, Senior Political Strategist at investment firm DWS Group, said, 'On many consumer issues directly related to the market, she seems more proactive than the Biden administration.' He cited Harris's recent economic proposals and her track record as a US Senator and California Attorney General.

On Monday, August 20, Harris proposed raising the corporate tax rate from 21% to 28%. Her campaign team described this plan as an effort to 'ensure that billionaires and large corporations pay their fair share.'

This plan is in stark contrast to Trump's policies. During his presidency, Trump significantly reduced the corporate tax rate from 35% to 21% and attempted to make other tax cuts permanent.

The nonpartisan organization Responsible Federal Budget Committee stated that raising the tax rate would help reduce the US budget deficit by $1 trillion over the next decade, addressing some concerns of investors.

Increasing taxes may also erode corporate profits. Goldman Sachs strategists stated that for every one percentage point change in the statutory domestic corporate tax rate, the earnings of companies in the S&P 500 Index would change by slightly less than 1%.

Chase Investment Counsel President Peter Tuz said, "Any measures that reduce returns will have a negative impact on the stock market. However, there may be various offsetting measures before seeing the proposal."

Many proposals put forward by the two candidates require approval from Congress, and the vote margin between the Republican and Democratic parties in Congress is very small. Control of the House of Representatives and Senate will be contested on November 5th.

In the case of a divided Congress or Republican control, Harris' tax proposals may face serious obstacles.

Harris and Trump are locked in a fierce presidential campaign, with the outcome likely to be decided in several key states. Recent polls on the PredictIt political gambling platform show that Harris has been leading in recent weeks.

Food, healthcare, and solar energy stocks

Last month, expectations of Trump defeating Biden have been growing, sparking the so-called "Trump trade" in the US stock market, boosting market sectors seen as benefiting from tax cuts and deregulation, including stocks of US small businesses and cryptos.

Harris proposed a plan last week to ban food and grocery price fraud, and her campaign team said the plan aims to prevent large companies from exploiting consumers.

Harris is also working to reduce healthcare costs, and analysts expect her to expand the prescription drug price negotiation authority established during the Biden administration.

Canadian Royal Bank's capital markets global equity strategy research director Lori Calvasina said in a report this week that these proposals could put pressure on consumer staples and healthcare stocks.

Harris also pledged last week to introduce child tax credits, and Garrett Melson, portfolio strategist at BNP Paribas Investment Solutions, said this could "significantly stimulate consumer spending".

He said such spending could particularly benefit retailers and other sectors related to consumer goods.

King Lip, Chief Strategist at BakerAvenue Wealth Management, expects the clean energy plan introduced by the Biden administration to continue under the Harris administration.

Lip said this could provide some comfort to solar energy companies, which are facing headwinds due to rising interest rates in the United States. The Invesco Solar ETF has fallen more than 20% this year.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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