分产品来看： 24H1 珍酒/李渡/湘窖/ 开口笑分别实现营收27.0/6.7/4.5/2.2 亿元，同比+17.2%/+37.9%/+2.4%/+1.6%，其中销量分别+7.9%/+30.2%/+2.5%/-11.9% ， 吨价分别+8.6%/+5.9%/-0.1%/+15.3% ， 毛利率分别+1.2/-2.0/-1.4/+3.1pct。李渡增速持续引领，期内对李渡高粱1955/1975 焕新升级，叠加积极拓展江西以外市场、扩大产品矩阵纳入更多次高端及中端价位产品；珍酒增速平稳，期内推出次高端宴席新品珍宴，近期珍三十单设事业部运作。Brief performance review
On August 21, 2024, the company disclosed 24H1 results, achieving revenue of 4.13 billion yuan, +17.5% year-on-year; adjusted net profit of 1.02 billion yuan, or +26.9% year-on-year, slightly exceeding market expectations.
Management analysis
By product: 24H1 Zhenjiu/ Li Du/ Xiang Jiao/ Kai Kou Shou achieved revenue of 27.0/0.67/0.45/0.22 billion yuan, compared with +17.2%/+37.9%/+2.4%/+1.6%, with sales volume of +7.9%/+30.2%/+2.5%/-11.9%, tonnage ratio +8.6%/+5.9%/-0.1%/+15.3%, gross margin of +1.2/-2.0/-1.4/+3.1 pct, respectively. Li Du continued to lead the growth rate. During the period, Li Du sorghum was renewed and upgraded, and in addition, markets outside Jiangxi were actively expanded and the product matrix was expanded to include more high-end and mid-price products; the growth rate of fine wine was steady, and new high-end banquet products were launched during the period. Recently, Zhen30 set up a separate division.
By price, 24H1 high-end, sub-high-end, and the lower end achieved revenue of 1.09/1.68/1.36 billion yuan, respectively, +18%/+33%/+3%, and gross margin of -0.4/-1.9/+2.0pct to 69.9%/63.3%/44.2%, respectively. In addition, the number of distribution partners/experience stores/retailers at the end of 24H1 was 3107/1061/3192, respectively, and +169/-119/49 during the period, respectively.
Judging from the report quality: 1) 24H1 overall gross margin +0.9pct to 58.8% year over year, sales and distribution expenses accounted for -1.2pct to 21.8% year over year (by improving labor efficiency and marketing cost efficiency ratio), administrative expenses accounted for +0.8pct to 6.6% year over year; income tax burden was about 33% (some expenses cannot be deducted before tax), adjusted net interest rate +1.8pct to 24.6% (equity incentive expenses settled with equity during the period were 0.27 billion yuan); 2) Accrued rebate/advance payment from customers at the end of 24H1 The balance was 0.6/1.79 billion yuan, respectively, -0.03/-0.06 billion yuan month-on-month.
The company's brands collaborated, and Zhenjiu implemented dual-channel growth. Li Du gradually expanded the sales network, and the Xiangjiao and Kaijiao regions were deeply cultivated. From region to outreach, from circle to circulation, the brand momentum is both progressive and steady. We expect a high level of confidence that the annual planning goals will be achieved, and that the product/organizational structure side will continue to focus on marginal improvements in the second half of the year.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's 24-26 revenue to be +19.5%/+16.3%/+15.0%, respectively; net profit without return to mother will be 20.3/ 2.43/2.91 billion yuan, respectively, +25.0%/+19.8%/+19.6% (corresponding to the company's disclosure of net income withheld from non-attributable mother of 1.62 billion yuan in '23, mainly amortization of equity incentive expenses). The current stock price corresponds to PE at 11.4X/9.5X/7.9X, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; sub-high-end competition heightens risks; policy risks.
