Huazhu Group-S (01179.HK): Expected 24Q3 revenue growth of 2% to 5%, raising the annual store opening guidelines to over 2,200

一、财务表现：24Q2 收入61 亿略超预期，归母净利润达10.67 亿元

24Q2 公司营收61.48 亿元/yoy+11.2%、略超指引（7-11%），较19Q2 增长115%；归母净利润10.67 亿元/yoy+5.1%，较19Q2 增长74%。其中，华住境内酒店营收48 亿元/yoy+11.2%、处于指引上限（7%-11%），实现净利润10 亿元/yoy+1%，主要来自酒店网络扩张；德意志酒店营收13 亿元/yoy+11.6%，实现净利润0.34 亿元、23Q2 净利润0.22 亿元。其中，集团直营收入36.81 亿元/yoy+2.5%，加盟收入23.34 亿元/yoy+25.8%、加盟收入占比38%/yoy+4.4pct。

24Q2 公司经营利润15.72 亿元/yoy+13.5%，经营利润率25.6%/yoy+0.5pct、较19 年增长2.6pct。同期公司销售费用率5.2%/yoy+0.5pct；管理费用率9.8%/yoy+1.2pct。

二、经营表现：24Q2 华住境内RevPAR 恢复度降至118%，境外RevPAR 恢复至116%。

24Q2 华住境内RevPAR 为244 元/yoy-2%，较19Q2 整体恢复度为118%、较24Q1 的121%的恢复度降低3pct。1）ADR 296 元/yoy-3%，OCC82.6%/yoy+0.7pct；2）同店RevPAR 为248 元/yoy-3.6%、同店恢复度为122.8%。其中经济型RevPAR 为190 元/yoy-4.2%、恢复度为111.1%，中高端及以上RevPAR 为299 元/yoy-3%、恢复度为109.9%。

24Q2 德意志RevPAR 为82 欧元/yoy+4.5%、较19Q2 恢复度116%，其中ADR120 欧元/yoy+2.7%、OCC 68.3%/yoy+1.2pct。公司继续专注降低成本和提高效率、提升盈利能力。

三、开店情况：24Q2 集团新开店572 家、净开店数增至469 家。

24Q2 集团新开店572 家/yoy+53%，关店103 家、净开店469 家，pipeline酒店3294 家/yoy+16%、较24Q1 增加122 家、同比增加449 家。（对比24Q1集团新开店574 家/yoy+117%，关店151 家、净开店423 家）

24Q2 华住境内新开店567 家/yoy+52%（加盟563 家/yoy+51%）、关店101家，净开店466 家。截至24Q2 华住共有待开业酒店3294 家，其中境内3266家，境外28 家。（对比24Q1 华住境内新开店569 家、关店148 家、净开店421 家）。

四、24Q3 及全年指引

24Q3 预期收入同比增长2%~5%，其中境内增长1%~4%。

上调24 全年开店指引，预计超2200 家（此前为1800 家）。

盈利预测及投资建议：2024 年酒店行业景气度在高基数下仍具韧性，看好华住具备的龙头规模优势和优异的运营管理效率，预计华住2024-2026年收入为237/264/295 亿元，yoy+8%/+11%/+11%，归母净利润41/48/54 亿元，yoy+1%/+15%/+13%，当前股价对应PE 分别为16/14/12x，维持“推荐”评级。

风险提示：宏观经济波动风险，市场竞争加剧风险，开店进度不及预期风险。

1. Financial performance: 24Q2 revenue of 6.1 billion slightly exceeded expectations, and net profit to mother reached 1.067 billion yuan

24Q2's revenue was 6.148 billion yuan/yoy +11.2%, slightly above the guideline (7-11%), up 115% from 19Q2; net profit to mother was 1.067 billion yuan/yoy +5.1%, up 74% from 19Q2. Among them, Huazhu's domestic hotel revenue was 4.8 billion yuan/yoy +11.2%, at the upper limit of the guideline (7%-11%), achieving net profit of 1 billion yuan/yoy +1%, mainly from the expansion of the hotel network; Deutsche Hotel's revenue was 1.3 billion yuan/yoy +11.6%, achieving net profit of 0.034 billion yuan and 23Q2 net profit of 0.022 billion yuan. Among them, the Group's direct revenue was 3.681 billion yuan/yoy +2.5%, franchise revenue 2.334 billion yuan/yoy +25.8%, and franchise revenue accounted for 38% /yoy+4.4pct.

24Q2 The company's operating profit was 1.572 billion yuan/yoy +13.5%, and the operating profit margin was 25.6% /yoy+0.5pct, an increase of 2.6 pct over 2019. During the same period, the company's sales expense ratio was 5.2% /yoy+0.5pct; management expense ratio was 9.8% /yoy+1.2pct.

2. Operating performance: In 24Q2, Huazhu's domestic RevPAR recovery dropped to 118%, and overseas RevPAR recovered to 116%.

The 24Q2 Huazhu domestic RevPAR was 244 yuan/yoy -2%, which was 118% lower than the overall recovery in 19Q2 and 3pct lower than the 121% recovery in 24Q1. 1) ADR 296 yuan/yoy -3%, OCC 82.6% /yoy+0.7pct; 2) The same-store RevPar was 248 yuan/yoy -3.6%, and the same-store recovery rate was 122.8%. Among them, the economical RevPar is 190 yuan/yoy -4.2%, the recovery rate is 111.1%, the middle and high-end RevPar is 299 yuan/yoy -3%, and the recovery rate is 109.9%.

The 24Q2 German RevPar was 82 EUR/yoy +4.5%, a recovery rate of 116% compared to 19Q2, with ADR120 EUR/YOY +2.7% and OCC 68.3% /yoy+1.2pct. The company continues to focus on reducing costs, improving efficiency, and improving profitability.

3. Store opening situation: 24Q2 Group opened 572 new stores, and the net number of stores opened increased to 469.

24Q2 Group opened 572 new stores +53%, closed 103 stores, opened 469 stores, and Pipeline Hotels 3294 home/yoy +16%, an increase of 122 over 24Q1, an increase of 449 over the previous year. (Compared with 24Q1 Group's 574 new stores, yoy +117%, closed 151 stores, and net opened 423 stores)

In 24Q2, Huazhu opened 567 new stores in China, Yoy +52% (joined 563 homes/yoy +51%), closed 101 stores, and opened 466 net stores. As of 24Q2, Huazhu had a total of 3,294 hotels to open, including 3,266 domestic and 28 overseas. (Compared with 569 new stores, 148 closed stores, and 421 net stores in Huazhu in 24Q1).

IV. Guidelines for 24Q3 and the whole year

24Q3 is expected to increase revenue by 2% to 5% year on year, with domestic growth of 1% to 4%.

The 24 annual store opening guidelines were raised, and the number of stores is expected to exceed 2,200 (previously 1,800).

Profit forecast and investment advice: The hospitality industry is still resilient under a high base. I am optimistic about Huazhu's leading scale advantage and excellent operation and management efficiency. Huazhu's 2024-2026 revenue is expected to be 23.7/26.4/29.5 billion yuan, yoy +8%/+11%/+11%, net profit to mother 4.1/4.8/5.4 billion yuan, yoy +1%/+13%. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 16/14/12x, maintaining the “recommended” rating.

Risk warning: Risk of macroeconomic fluctuations, increased risk of market competition, risk of falling short of expectations when opening a store.

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华住集团-S(01179.HK)：预计24Q3收入增长2%~5% 上调全年开店指引至超2200家

Huazhu Group-S (01179.HK): Expected 24Q3 revenue growth of 2% to 5%, raising the annual store opening guidelines to over 2,200

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