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快手-W(01024.HK)：外循环广告加速 电商增长受竞争影响放缓

Kuaishou-W (01024.HK): External circulation advertising accelerates e-commerce growth and slows down due to competition

廣發證券 ·  Aug 22

Core views:

Kuaishou released its 24Q2 earnings report: 24Q2 revenue was 30.975 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +12%/+5%, vs. Bloomberg's agreed forecast of 30.368 billion yuan (over 2%). 24Q2 net profit was 3.98 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +169%/-3%, vs. consistent expectations of 3.483 billion yuan (over 14%). NongAAP's net profit was 4.679 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +74%/+7%, vs. the agreed forecast of 4.338 billion yuan (over 8%), NongAAP's net profit margin reached 15%, and YOY/QoQ +5.4pct/+0.2pct.

24Q2 advertising performance was strong, and e-commerce GMV growth slowed. (1) 24Q2 advertising revenue was 17.515 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +22%/+5%, vs. the agreed forecast was 17.59 billion yuan. Advertising has benefited from the rapid growth of industries such as skits, driving the growth of external circulation advertising to accelerate. (2) 24Q2 Other revenue (mainly e-commerce commission revenue) was 4.158 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +21%/-1%. Among them, e-commerce GMV was 305.3 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ +15%/+6%. The commission rate for other income/GMV was 1.36%, and 1.3% and 1.45% for 23Q2 and 24Q1, respectively. MPU was 0.131 billion in the quarter, up 14.1% year over year (MPU/MAU was 18.9%). (3) 24Q2 live streaming revenue was 9.3 billion yuan, YOY/QoQ -7%/+8%, vs. the agreed forecast was 8.587 billion yuan.

Profit forecasting and investment advice. The company's 24Q2 external circulation advertising has benefited from the acceleration of industries such as skits, and e-commerce GMV has slowed down due to weak consumption and increased competition. We expect 24Q3 businesses to continue the 24Q2 trend. The overall revenue growth is expected to reach 31.3 billion yuan (YoY +12%), and the 24Q3 adjusted net profit is expected to reach 3.8 billion yuan (YoY +20%). We expect 24-25 revenue of 127.6/140.6 billion yuan, an increase of 12%/10%. 24-25 The adjusted profit is estimated at $18.6/23.7 billion. Referring to comparable companies, Kuaishou's reasonable value is HK$73.86 per share based on 24-year profit corresponding to 16x PE, maintaining a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Risks such as increased competition and lower than expected growth in e-commerce and overseas expansion investment.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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