报告期内，公司纯碱业务实现对外销售营业收入11.9 亿元，同比减少12.2%，毛利率25.7%，同比下降6.0pct。2024H1 纯碱价格波动下行,行业均价同比下降17%，系影响整体盈利的主要原因。重质纯碱下游需求主要来自浮法玻璃、光伏玻璃，2024H1 国内房屋竣工面积同比下降22%，影响浮法玻璃需求；近期光伏玻璃部分产线冷修减产需求走低，我们预计纯碱价格短期内或仍将承压，但下行空间有限。occurrences
On August 19, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. During the reporting period, it achieved operating income of 3.55 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.4%, and realized a net profit of 0.27 billion yuan, an increase of 5.2% over the previous year; of these, 2024Q2 achieved operating income of 1.77 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.0% year-on-year, and remained basically flat month-on-month, achieving a net profit of 0.1 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 39.8% and a year-on-year decrease of 38.8%.
The decline in soda ash prices affects the company's profit margin
During the reporting period, the company's soda ash business achieved foreign sales revenue of 1.19 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.2%, gross profit margin of 25.7%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.0 pcts. The price of 2024H1 soda ash fluctuated and declined, and the average price in the industry fell 17% year on year, which is the main reason affecting overall profit. Downstream demand for heavy soda ash mainly comes from float glass and photovoltaic glass. 2024H1 domestic housing completion area fell 22% year on year, affecting demand for float glass. Recently, demand for cold repair and production reduction in some photovoltaic glass production lines has declined. We expect soda ash prices to remain under pressure in the short term, but there is limited room for decline.
Increased demand for overseas film modules is driving glass performance
The company's glass sector mainly includes construction, energy-saving glass, photovoltaic glass and other products. During the reporting period, the company's glass business achieved revenue of 2.31 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 2.0%, a gross profit margin of 16.3%, an increase of 8.0 pcts over the previous year, and the profit level rebounded. 2024H1 Jinjing Malaysia achieved net profit of 0.04 billion yuan, an increase of 53.2% over the previous year. The Malaysian base mainly supplies thin-film module front and back glass to overseas customers, which is expected to benefit from the US policy support trend for the local photovoltaic manufacturing industry; Tengzhou Jinjing's loss improved significantly.
Crystalline silicon and thin-film module glass layouts advance in multiple lines
The company's photovoltaic glass products can be equipped with crystalline silicon and thin-film photovoltaic modules. Among them, rolled glass has a production capacity of 650 t/d, and the next 2 1200t/d kiln production lines have passed the Ningxia hearing, all of which are used for crystalline silicon components; Malaysian Gold Crystal continues to improve its major customer strategy; the quality of Tengzhou second-line TCO glass products has gradually improved, establishing good cooperative relationships with many domestic thin-film battery companies, and actively promoting business progress with overseas customers.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 8.02/9.09/10.44 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 0.6%/13.3%/14.9%, respectively; net profit to mother of 0.5/0.6/0.78 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 8.8%/18.5%/30.1%, respectively. EPS was 0.35/0.42/0.54 yuan respectively. Prices of soda ash and glass products are in a downward cycle of fluctuation, which has had a great impact on the company's performance in the short term. In the medium to long term, the photovoltaic glass project has already been heard, and the certainty of implementation is high. The TCO field has high growth potential and maintains a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Changes in glass industry policies and regulations; product prices fluctuate greatly; capacity construction is slower than expected.