特种电源和通信电源市场短期均承压，规模效应导致盈利能力下滑明显。1）1H24 公司电源及电机驱动主业实现营业收入4.55 亿元，YoY-44.67%。其中主要承担特种电源业务的母公司实现收入2.69 亿元，YoY-48.27%；主要承担通信电源业务的深圳雷能子公司实现收入1.33 亿元，YoY-51.46%。特种行业下单节奏波动及通信与数据中心下游市场需求不足对公司经营影响明显。2）1H24 公司毛利率/净利率分别同比-7.19/-35.80ppt 至42.88%/-14.59%，营收规模下降导致固定成本及费用影响凸显，盈利能力短期承压。1H24 results fall short of market expectations
The company announced 1H24 results: 1H24 achieved operating income of 0.489 billion yuan, YoY -44.93%; realized net profit to mother of -0.068 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.258 billion yuan. Looking at a single quarter, 2Q24 achieved operating income of 0.289 billion yuan, YoY -25.90%, and QoQ +44.62%; realized net profit to mother of -0.029 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.106 billion yuan, and an increase of 0.01 billion yuan over the previous year. The company's 1H24 performance fell short of market expectations, mainly due to the influence of adjustments in the pace of downstream demand for Internet power supplies.
Development trends
The specialty power supply and communication power supply markets are under pressure in the short term, and profitability declined significantly due to scale effects. 1) 1H24's main power supply and motor drive business achieved revenue of 0.455 billion yuan, YoY -44.67%. Among them, the parent company, which mainly undertakes the specialty power supply business, achieved revenue of 0.269 billion yuan, YoY -48.27%; the Shenzhen Leineng subsidiary, which mainly undertakes communication power supply business, achieved revenue of 0.133 billion yuan, or YoY -51.46%. Fluctuations in the pace of orders placed in special industries and insufficient demand in the downstream markets for communications and data centers have had an obvious impact on the company's operations. 2) 1H24's gross margin/net margin was -7.19/-35.80ppt to 42.88%/-14.59%, respectively. The decline in revenue scale led to a prominent impact on fixed costs and expenses, and short-term pressure on profitability.
1H24 R&D investment remained high, and operating cash flow was positive year over year. 1) The 1H24 company's expense ratio increased by 31.17ppt to 57.40% year on year, mainly affected by the reduction in revenue scale; among them, R&D investment increased 20.97% year over year to 0.197 billion yuan, and R&D expenses increased by 12.12ppt to 39.22% year on year. The company focuses on its main business and continues to expand multiple categories of business, and continues to invest in R&D in integrated circuits, electric drives, and data centers. 2) The net cash flow from 1H24's operating activities was 0.032 billion yuan, which was corrected year on year. Against the backdrop of a decrease in the scale of revenue, the company's procurement of materials decreased, and the cash flow was relatively healthy.
Production capacity construction is progressing steadily, and attention is being paid to the long-term growth space of special power supply leaders. 1) 1H24, construction of the company's special power supply expansion project and high-reliability SiP power microsystem product industrialization project is progressing steadily, and the company expects to be completed and put into operation in 2025. We believe that capacity building is expected to improve the company's production efficiency and further enhance its core competitiveness. 2) The company is a leading domestic special power supply. We believe that the company actively lays out fields such as server power supplies, motor drives, integrated circuits, etc., and is expected to inject new volume into the company, and long-term growth can be expected in the context of a stable leading position in the industry.
Profit forecasting and valuation
Considering the impact of fluctuations in the pace of downstream demand for specialty power supplies, we lowered our 2024/2025 net profit forecast by 168.4%/41.7% to -0.082/0.107 billion yuan. The current stock price corresponds to 2025 47.4x P/E. Considering that the company maintains a leading position in the field of special power supplies and continues to increase R&D investment to expand the category, we have maintained an outperforming industry rating and lowered the target price by 8.4% to 10.83 yuan, corresponding to 55.0 x P/E in 2025, with a potential increase of 16.1%.
risks
1) Macroenvironmental and policy risks; 2) Risks that orders and deliveries fall short of expectations.
