下调目标价128.23 元，维持“增持”。公司系隐身材料龙头，下游需求高度确定，叠加渗透率不断提升，业绩有望保持稳定增长。公司规模持续扩张，价格或有阶段性波动，我们下调2024-2026 年EPS为2.56/3.37/4.24 元（前值为2.72/3.59/4.43 元），考虑到公司与航发产业链深度绑定，行业龙头地位稳固，竞争优势明显，我们给予公司2024 年50 倍PE，下调目标价为128.23 元，维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's H1 performance in 2024 is in line with expectations, and revenue and profit have increased steadily. Benefiting from the release of batch models, deeply participating in the development of new models, and continuing to expand new businesses such as aviation parts, the scale of performance is expected to increase steadily.
Key points of investment:
The target price was lowered by 128.23 yuan to maintain the “increase in holdings”. The company is a leader in stealth materials. Downstream demand is highly determined, the superposition penetration rate continues to increase, and performance is expected to maintain steady growth. The size of the company continues to expand, and prices may fluctuate in stages. We lowered the 2024-2026 EPS to 2.56/3.37/4.24 yuan (previous value was 2.72/3.59/4.43 yuan). Considering that the company is deeply tied to the aviation development industry chain, the leading position in the industry is stable, and the competitive advantage is obvious. We gave the company 50 times PE in 2024 and lowered the target price to 128.23 yuan, maintaining the “increase” rating.
H1 production and sales increased steadily in '24, and revenue and profit grew steadily. 1) Benefiting from the continuous increase in mass production model tasks and the steady increase in production and sales volume, the company's 24H1 revenue profit increased year-on-year, achieving revenue of 0.485 billion yuan (+27.04%), net profit to mother 0.216 billion yuan (+17.44%), deducting non-net profit of 0.207 billion yuan (+18.15%). 2) 24Q2 achieved revenue of 0.238 billion yuan (+21.71%), net profit to mother of 0.101 billion yuan (+6.32%), after deducting non-net profit of 0.095 billion yuan (+8.10%). 3) The profitability of 24H1 increased, with an ROE of 5.01% (+0.29pct); due to the expansion in the size of the holding subsidiary, the cost rate and management expense ratio increased during the period, which were 15.75% (+1.54pct) and 6.66% (+1.54pct), respectively.
Benefiting from the continuous batch production and installation of advanced fighter jets and aviation engines, the company is deeply involved in the research and development of various new models, and is actively expanding fields such as aviation parts manufacturing and acoustic materials. The scale of performance and profitability are expected to increase steadily. 1) Compared with the US military, China's aviation equipment still has a lot of room for improvement, and the volume of advanced fighter jets is expected to exceed expectations; 2) Against the backdrop of increased intensity of actual combat training, aviation development and maintenance needs are becoming increasingly urgent. The company lays out the aviation development industry chain, and the back-end business is expected to enter a steady upward channel; 3) Deeply involved in the R&D of new models: the company gives full play to its industry-academia research and development advantages, actively lays out cutting-edge technology in the industry, and participates in multi-model follow-up work. Currently, dozens of models are in the pre-development or small-batch trial production stage; 4) Deeply tied to the aviation development supply chain: the company serves the “big and small core of aviation development” The “collaboration” layout gradually became the aviation development industry The core supplier of the chain, Huaqin Hangfa expanded from parts processing to manufacturing. In the first half of 2024, some production lines began first verification and trial production, and revenue was further increased; Shanghai Ruihuasheng actively developed ceramic-based composite products for aero engines, and project follow-up was progressing smoothly; 5) Expanding civil applications: entering the field of acoustic metamaterials, developing new high-end civilian materials, and striving to open up new market opportunities.
Catalysts: Mass production models continue to stabilize volume, and mass production of next-generation products is accelerated.
Risk warning: New product development progress is lower than expected; fighter mass production progress is lower than expected.