With Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve Chairman, about to give a speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium this weekend, the market's expectations for future monetary policy are drawing widespread attention. Under the recent continuous rising trend on Wall Street, investors are looking forward to a possible interest rate cut signal that Powell may release, while the US stock futures continue to rise. Meanwhile, the acquisition battle of Paramount Global is also intensifying in the media industry, with a bidding proposal of up to 4.3 billion US dollars suggested by media executives bringing a new variable to this field. In the energy market, the progress of the Gaza ceasefire agreement has led to a drop in crude oil prices, and these series of dynamics are reshaping the global market trend.

1. Powell is expected to release a dovish speech at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

As investors prepare for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's expected dovish speech at this weekend's Jackson Hole Symposium, Wall Street's confidence is rising.

Last week, the market achieved the best performance of the year, especially the significant fund inflow of the S&P 500 index. Positive data released in recent times has eased concerns about an economic recession. Evercore ISI analysts predict that Powell may clarify the Fed's interest rate cut strategy in his speech on Friday morning and emphasize his readiness to implement significant interest rate cuts if needed. Evercore ISI believes that"Powell's remarks will be reassuring, expected to be consistent with a gentle benchmark of 25 basis points, but he will convey a open attitude toward a 50 basis points interest rate cut."

Investment banks predict that Powell will confirm the Fed's confidence in returning to the 2% inflation target and indicate that interest rate cuts may start in September. However, Evercore ISI pointed out,"We do not expect a clear indication of whether the first interest rate cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points", and Powell is expected to hint that the decision will depend on the labor data that is about to be released.

Since July of last year, the Federal Reserve has maintained its benchmark overnight interest rate range at 5.25% - 5.50%.

2. Futures market continues to rise.

US stock futures rose slightly on Tuesday (August 20th), continuing the recent upward trend, as investors are confident that the Federal Reserve will soon cut interest rates, which will help boost the world's largest economy.

As of 04:00 EST (08:00 GMT), Dow futures rose 40 points or 0.1%, S&P 500 futures rose 6 points or 0.1%, and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 45 points or 0.2%.

On Monday, major Wall Street indices rose, with the S&P 500 up nearly 1% and the Nasdaq composite index up 1.4%. These two indices have recorded their eighth consecutive positive trading day, with the S&P 500 achieving this win record for the first time since November 2023, and the Nasdaq setting the longest winning record since December 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%.

Tuesday's economic data is relatively blank, and investors will continue to pay attention to the latest minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting and look forward to Powell's speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.

Home improvement retailer Lowe's will announce its financial report, while after Palo Alto Networks announced better-than-expected financial performance for its fiscal fourth quarter, the stock rose nearly 2%.

3. Paramount Global has a new buyer.

Media executive Edgar Bronfman Jr. submitted a bid proposal of about 4.3 billion US dollars to compete with National Amusements for the controlling stake of Paramount Global, as the acquisition battle for this field heats up again.

This move threatens the acquisition plan of David Ellison, founder and CEO of Skydance Media.

According to Reuters, Bronfman's offer includes $2.4 billion in debt and equity, and will inject $1.5 billion into Paramount's balance sheet to pay off debt.

Last month, Skydance reached an agreement to acquire the controlling stake of Paramount Pictures, CBS Broadcasting Network and MTV owned by the Redstone family, and plans to merge with a larger listed company. The agreement includes a 45-day "exploration period", allowing Paramount to seek and evaluate other bids, but if Paramount chooses other buyers, it will have to pay Skydance a termination fee of $400 million.

4. Significant fund inflow of the S&P 500 index.

Investor sentiment has undergone a significant change in the past week, resulting in a substantial increase in the fund inflow of the S&P 500 index. Positive economic data seems to support the recovery of investor confidence.

The data of PPI and CPI in the United States have calmed investors, alleviated concerns about inflation, boosted optimism about the economic outlook, and reduced concerns about long-term inflation.

Citigroup analysts said, "Net positions in major US indexes have risen, and the risk inflows of the S&P 500 have increased significantly. Nominal positions have increased by nearly $18 billion, of which the vast majority (more than $16 billion) come from new long positions."

"Inflows into the Nasdaq and Russell indexes are on the rise, but on a much smaller scale," they added.

This capital inflow comes with a significant reduction in short positions, as the market rally has put all short positions in the red. Citigroup pointed out that although there are risks with these short positions, the risks are mitigated due to their relatively small size.

Especially in the case of the Nasdaq, which had long been suffering losses on its positions, these losses have now significantly eased, relieving pressure on investors and improving the overall profitability of the index.

5. Crude oil prices fell due to progress in Gaza ceasefire

Crude oil prices fell on Tuesday due to progress in the Gaza ceasefire agreement, which eased geopolitical risks.

As of 04:00 Eastern Time, US crude oil futures (WTI) fell 1% to $72.94 per barrel, while Brent crude oil futures fell 1% to $76.88 per barrel.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Monday that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has accepted a US proposal to resolve the differences that have hindered the Gaza ceasefire agreement, and urged Hamas to do the same.

This suggests an increase in the possibility of a ceasefire agreement, and market participants may exclude risks of escalation in the oil-rich region, which could affect the supply in the region.

In the US, the American Petroleum Institute will release its estimate of US crude inventories later in the trading session.