FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning News | Market is focused on this Wednesday's heavyweight revision! Non-farm data may be significantly revised downward; jd.com fell nearly 10% after hours and may be sold off by major shareholder Walmart.

热点要闻

美联储理事鲍曼：如果通胀持续下降，将支持降息

美联储理事鲍曼表示，她仍然认为通胀存在上行风险，但如果物价增长继续放缓，央行开始逐步降低利率将是合适的。鲍曼认为，近几个月来“在降低通胀方面取得了一些进一步进展”，但上行风险仍然存在，原因是“地缘政治紧张局势加剧，额外的财政刺激措施以及移民导致的住房需求增加”。此外她表示，劳动力市场继续放松，有迹象表明，劳动力市场正趋于更好的平衡。

美国一年非农就业人数恐大幅下修百万，就业虚高程度可能是15年来最大

本周三出炉的一项重磅修正可能意味着，美国政府的统计部门严重高估了国内就业人数，就业虚高程度可能是15年来最大。那将令市场担心美联储的降息行动严重滞后，因为劳动力市场并没有之前数据体现的那么有韧性。媒体指出，如果就业人数下修超过50.1万人，将是15年来规模最大的下修调整。下修会引起美联储行动严重落后于形势的担忧，可能影响鲍威尔周五杰克逊霍尔年会讲话的基调。

美银客户上周连续第二周净买入美股，对冲基金和机构领衔，散户抛售

根据美国银行Jill Carey Hall领导的量化策略师团队在周二发布的研究报告，上周截至8月16日，美国银行的客户们在美股中投入了27亿美元资金，这是连续第二周净买入美股，资金流入由所谓的“聪明钱”引领，对冲基金和机构都在买入，但与此同时，散户们在抛售。上周，美银的客户们净买入除了能源和工业以外的所有行业的股票，科技和通信服务领域的资金流入最为明显，买入规模是今年迄今为止最大的。

机构：黄金创纪录的涨势可能会面临短期阻力

周二黄金再创新高，但随后收窄了部分涨幅，因为宏观驱动因素正在为贵金属持续上升的路径做调整。不过，近期金价仍可能面临一些阻力。据道明证券的估计，宏观基金的头寸现在更接近表明衰退即将来临的水平。正如分析师Garfield Reynolds指出的那样，对经济低迷的担忧肯定有助于提振需求。然而，结合商品交易顾问的最大多头头寸，这表明近期金价可能会出现下跌。黄金的相对强弱指数(RSI)也接近70的超买水平，这可能导致潜在的技术回调。

亚洲降息潮要来了？市场紧盯韩国、印尼、泰国

随着高利率逐渐对经济产生负面影响以及美联储将开启降息周期，亚洲国家央行降息的条件正逐渐成熟，分析师预期韩国、泰国以及印尼央行将跟随行动，韩国央行可能会在本周四降息。

美股复盘

美股三大指数小幅收跌，英伟达结束六连涨，猴痘概念股回落

美股三大指数集体收跌，道指跌0.15%，纳指跌0.33%，标普500指数跌0.2%。

大型科技股涨跌不一，英伟达跌超2%，Meta、特斯拉跌幅不足1%，微软、苹果、谷歌涨幅不足1%。

热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数跌近4%。唯品会跌超17%，爱奇艺跌超7%，小鹏汽车跌超5%，阿里巴巴跌超3%。

猴痘概念股回落，GeoVax Labs、Emergent BioSolutions大跌超20%。

京东盘后跌近10%，媒体称大股东沃尔玛寻求抛售1.4亿股

$京东 (JD.US)$ 盘后大跌超9%，有媒体援引知情者消息称，京东最大的企业持股股东沃尔玛要出售1.445亿股京东股票，对这笔大宗交易的报价每股24.85美元至25.85美元，摩根士丹利是接受沃尔玛这笔交易委托的证券经纪商。沃尔玛和京东的公司代表都未对上述消息置评。

特朗普即将可以对特朗普媒体与科技集团持股套现

美国前总统、共和党总统候选人特朗普将可以开始出售他对$特朗普媒体科技集团 (DJT.US)$ 价值26亿美元的持股。特朗普拥有大约60%的股份，料将最早将可以在9月20日开始出售股票，届时禁售期将被解除。据悉，特朗普尚未表示有意出售特朗普媒体与科技集团股份，该公司运营着特朗普的社交媒体平台Truth Social。但该集团的代表曾对此表示，有关特朗普从该公司套现的报道是“毫无依据的”并带有党派性。

AMD买下了英伟达“核心供应商”，AI服务器格局或大变

随着服务器在AI时代愈发重要， $美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$ 砸49亿美元收购“AI服务器龙头”ZT Systems，服务器市场格局或将迎来重塑。摩根大通认为，ZT在设计的强大能力将提升AMD AI服务器在数据中心的部署， $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 可能鼓励超大规模计算公司将英伟达AI服务器外包给除ZT之外的其他ODMs，这可能导致市场竞争格局更加集中。

礼来“减肥神药”效果惊人，糖尿病风险降低94%，体重下降近23%

$礼来 (LLY.US)$ 收涨超3%，盘中一度涨近5%，创历史新高。公司研究表明，替尔泊肽能够显著降低肥胖症患者患上糖尿病的风险。后期试验还发现，接受最高周剂量药物的成年人在176周后平均体重下降了22.9%。

巴菲特再度减持美银，持股比例降至12%

在消停了两周之后，“股神”巴菲特最近几天又恢复了对 $美国银行 (BAC.US)$ 股票的出售。根据周一晚些时候提交给美国证券交易委员会（SEC）的文件，巴菲特执掌的伯克希尔哈撒韦在上周四、上周五以及本周一以39.50美元的均价总计出售了1400万股美国银行股票，价值约5.5亿美元。出售完成后，伯克希尔仍持有9.28亿股美国银行股票，对该银行巨头的持股比例已降至12%，持股价值接近370亿美元。

OpenAI将允许公司个性化其性能最强大的AI模型，对企业客户的争夺加剧

对于OpenAI当前的旗舰模型来说，微调是全新的功能，GPT-4o及其前身GPT-4此前均未提供过微调功能。GPT-4o微调在9月23日之前将每天为每个组织免费提供100万个训练token。而GPT-4o mini的微调将在9月23日之前每天免费提供200万个训练token。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水买入小米2亿港元，卖出中海油近2亿港元

8月20日，南向资金净买入17.94亿港元。

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$、$巨子生物 (02367.HK)$分别获净买入4.83亿港元、2亿港元、1.04亿港元；

$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$、 $建设银行 (00939.HK)$ 、$美团-W (03690.HK)$分别遭净卖出1.75亿港元、1.52亿港元、1.36亿港元。

中国电信上半年营收为2659.73亿元，同比增长2.8%

$中国电信 (00728.HK)$ 公布最新业绩，公司2024年上半年营收为2659.73亿元，同比增长2.8%；归属于上市公司股东的净利润为218.12亿元，同比增长8.2%；归属于上市公司股东的扣非净利润为216.81亿元，同比增长6%；公司拟向全体股东派发每股0.1671元股息（含税）。

快手Q2经调整净利润为46.79亿元，同比增长73.7%

$快手-W (01024.HK)$ 2024年Q2收入为309.75亿元，同比增长11.6%；毛利为171.35亿元，同比增长23%；经调整净利润为46.79亿元，同比增长73.7%。Q2快手应用的平均日活跃用户和平均月活跃用户分别达到了3.95亿及6.92亿，分别同比增长5.1%和2.7%，快手应用的日活跃用户日均使用时长达122分钟。在用户流量端实现加速增长，快手应用用户总使用时长同比增长9.5%。

小鹏汽车二季度营收同比增60%至81.1亿元

$小鹏汽车-W (09868.HK)$ 二季度总收入81.11亿元，同比增加60.22%；净亏损12.85亿元，同比收窄54.19%;毛利率为14.0%，同比上升17.9个百分点。期内汽车总交付量为3.02万辆，同比增加30.2%。

今日关注

关键词：美国至8月16日当周EIA原油库存；2024年FOMC票委博斯蒂克发表讲话；小米、港交所财报

周三，经济数据方面，美国将发布当周API原油库存、当周EIA原油库存、当周EIA战略石油储备库存；日本将发布商品进出口年率。

财经事件方面，2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克发表讲话。

财报方面，$小米集团-W (01810.HK)$、$香港交易所 (00388.HK)$、$吉利汽车 (00175.HK)$、 $药明生物 (02269.HK)$ 将于今日公布财报； $塔吉特 (TGT.US)$将于美股盘前发布业绩；$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$、$Zoom视频通讯 (ZM.US)$将于美股盘后发布业绩。

牛牛晨读：

如果你的思维完全依赖于他人，只要一超出你的领域，就求助专家建议，那么你将遭受很多灾难。

——［美］查理·芒格

编辑/new

Hot news

Federal Reserve Governor Bowman: If inflation continues to decline, we will support interest rate cuts.

Fed director Bowman said that she still believes there is upward inflation risk, but lowering interest rates gradually would be appropriate if price growth continues to slow down. Bowman believes that there has been "further progress in reducing inflation" in recent months, but there is still upward risk due to "geopolitical tensions, additional fiscal stimulus, and increased housing demand due to immigration." In addition, she said that the labor market continued to loosen, with signs that the labor market is tending towards a better balance.

The number of non-farm employment in the United States for the year may be significantly revised down by millions, and the degree of overestimation of employment may be the largest in 15 years.

A heavyweight revision due to be released on Wednesday could mean that the US government's statistical department has severely overestimated the number of domestic employees, and the degree of overestimation may be the largest in 15 years. This will cause concern that the Fed's interest rate reduction action is seriously lagging behind in response to the situation, as the labor market is not as resilient as the previous data indicated. The media pointed out that if the number of employees is revised down by more than 0.501 million, it will be the largest downward adjustment in 15 years. The revision will cause concern that the Fed's interest rate reduction action is seriously lagging behind in response to the situation, and may affect the tone of Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting on Friday.

Bank of America customers bought US stocks for the second consecutive week last week, led by hedge funds and institutions, while retail investors sold.

According to the research report released by Bank of America's quantitative strategy team led by Jill Carey Hall on Tuesday, Bank of America's clients invested $2.7 billion in US stocks in the week ending August 16, marking the second consecutive week of net purchases of US stocks. 'Smart money' led the inflows, with hedge funds and institutions buying, but at the same time, retail investors were selling. Last week, Bank of America's customers bought stocks in all industries except energy and industry. The inflow of funds in the technology and communications services sectors was the most obvious, and the purchase scale was the largest so far this year.

Institutions: The record-breaking rise in gold may face short-term resistance.

Gold hit a new high on Tuesday, but then narrowed some gains as macro drivers adjusted the path for the continuous rise of precious metals. However, the recent gold price may still face some obstacles. According to estimates by Daimon Securities, the position of macro funds now suggests that a recession is imminent. As analyst Garfield Reynolds pointed out, concerns about economic downturns will certainly help boost demand. However, combined with the largest long position of commodity trade advisers, this indicates that the recent gold price may decline. The relative strength index (RSI) of gold is also close to the overbought level of 70, which may cause potential technical adjustments.

Is Asia's rate cut wave coming? Market is closely watching South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand.

As high interest rates gradually have negative impacts on the economy and the Federal Reserve begins an interest rate cut cycle, conditions for central banks in Asian countries to cut interest rates are gradually maturing. Analysts expect that the central banks of South Korea, Thailand, and Indonesia will follow suit. The South Korean central bank may cut interest rates on Thursday of this week.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

The three major US stock indexes fell slightly, Nvidia ended six consecutive gains, and monkeypox concept stocks fell back.

The three major US stock indexes collectively fell, with the Dow down 0.15%, the Nasdaq down 0.33%, and the S&P 500 index down 0.2%.

Large technology stocks were mixed, with Nvidia down more than 2%, Meta and Tesla down less than 1%, and Microsoft, Apple, and Google up less than 1%.

Popular China concept stocks fell across the board, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down nearly 4%. Vipshop fell more than 17%, iQiyi fell more than 7%, Xpeng fell more than 5%, and Alibaba fell more than 3%.

Monkeypox concept stocks fell back, with GeoVax Labs and Emergent BioSolutions both plummeting more than 20%.

JD.com fell nearly 10% after hours. Media reports said the company's largest shareholder, Walmart, is seeking to sell 140 million shares.

$JD.com (JD.US)$ JD.com fell more than 9% after hours. According to sources, Walmart, the largest shareholder of JD.com, will sell 144.5 million shares of JD.com stock at a bid price of $24.85 to $25.85 per share. Morgan Stanley is the securities broker accepting Walmart's request for this transaction. Representatives of Walmart and JD.com have not commented on the above news.

Trump is about to be able to cash out his shares in the Trump media and technology group.

Former US president and Republican presidential candidate Trump will be able to start selling his $2.6 billion worth of shares. Trump owns about 60% of the shares and is expected to start selling his shares as early as September 20, when the lock-up period will be lifted. It is reported that Trump has not expressed his intention to cash out his shares in the Trump Media and Technology Group, which operates Trump's social media platform Truth Social. However, representatives of the group have stated that reports of Trump cashing in on the company are "unfounded" and partisan.$Trump Media & Technology (DJT.US)$ AMD acquires "core supplier" Nvidia for $4.9 billion, and the AI server landscape may undergo a major reshuffle.

The Fed director Bowman said that she still believes there is upward inflation risk, but lowering interest rates gradually would be appropriate if price growth continues to slow down. Bowman believes that there has been "further progress in reducing inflation" in recent months, but there is still upward risk due to "geopolitical tensions, additional fiscal stimulus, and increased housing demand due to immigration." In addition, she said that the labor market continued to loosen, with signs that the labor market is tending towards a better balance.

As servers become increasingly important in the AI era, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ According to the research report released by Bank of America's quantitative strategy team led by Jill Carey Hall on Tuesday, Bank of America's clients invested $2.7 billion in US stocks in the week ending August 16, marking the second consecutive week of net purchases of US stocks. 'Smart money' led the inflows, with hedge funds and institutions buying, but at the same time, retail investors were selling. Last week, Bank of America's customers bought stocks in all industries except energy and industry. The inflow of funds in the technology and communications services sectors was the most obvious, and the purchase scale was the largest so far this year. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ This may encourage large-scale computing companies to outsource NVIDIA AI servers to other ODMs besides ZT, which could lead to a more concentrated market competition.

Eli Lilly & Co.'s 'miracle weight-loss drug' has shown amazing results, reducing the risk of diabetes by 94% and causing weight loss of almost 23%. In terms of product structure, products with operating revenues between 10 and 30 billion yuan have generated revenues of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

$Eli Lilly and Co (LLY.US)$ The stock has closed up more than 3%, at one point up nearly 5% to reach a new historical high. According to the company's research, Tesofensine significantly reduces the risk of obesity patients developing diabetes. In future trials, it was also found that adults taking the highest weekly dose of the drug saw an average weight loss of 22.9% after 176 weeks.

Buffett has further reduced his shareholding in Bank of America to 12%.

After lying low for two weeks, the 'Stock God' Buffett has resumed selling stocks of $Bank of America (BAC.US)$ Bank of America. According to documents filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on Monday evening, Berkshire Hathaway, which is headed by Buffett, sold a total of 14 million shares of Bank of America stock last Thursday, Friday, and Monday at an average price of $39.50, worth about $550 million. After the sale, Berkshire Hathaway still holds 92.8 million shares of Bank of America, reducing its shareholding in the banking giant to 12% and its shareholding value to nearly $37 billion.

OpenAI will allow companies to personalize their most powerful AI models, intensifying the competition for enterprise customers.

Fine-tuning is a new feature for OpenAI's current flagship model, GPT-4o, and its predecessor, GPT-4, did not offer this feature before. GPT-4o fine-tuning will provide 1 million training tokens per organization free of charge by September 23. The fine-tuning of GPT-4o mini will provide 2 million training tokens per day free of charge by September 23.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

Beishui bought Xiaomi for 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, sold approximately 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars of CNOOC.

On August 20th, the southbound capital had a net buy of 1.794 billion Hong Kong dollars.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$GIANT BIOGENE (02367.HK)$They respectively received a net purchase of 0.483 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.2 billion Hong Kong dollars, and 0.104 billion Hong Kong dollars;

$CNOOC (00883.HK)$and$CCB (00939.HK)$N/A.$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$They were sold out for 0.175 billion Hong Kong dollars, 0.152 billion Hong Kong dollars and 0.136 billion Hong Kong dollars respectively.

China Telecom's revenue in the first half of the year was 265.973 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.8%.

$CHINA TELECOM (00728.HK)$ The company's revenue in the first half of 2024 was 265.973 billion yuan, up 2.8% year-on-year; net profit attributable to listed company shareholders was 21.812 billion yuan, up 8.2% year-on-year; non-GAAP net profit attributable to listed company shareholders was 21.681 billion yuan, up 6% year-on-year; the company plans to distribute a dividend of 0.1671 yuan per share (including tax) to all shareholders.

In Q2, the net income of Kuaishou was 4.679 billion yuan after adjustments, a year-on-year increase of 73.7%.

$KUAISHOU-W (01024.HK)$ In Q2 2024, revenue was 30.975 billion yuan, up 11.6% year-on-year; gross profit was 17.135 billion yuan, up 23% year-on-year; adjusted net profit was 4.679 billion yuan, up 73.7% year-on-year. The average daily active users and monthly active users of the Kuaishou app in Q2 reached 395 million and 692 million, respectively, up 5.1% and 2.7% year-on-year. The daily usage time of Kuaishou's app reached 122 minutes, and the total usage time of Kuaishou's app increased by 9.5% year-on-year.

In Q2, Xpeng's revenue increased by 60% year-on-year to 8.11 billion yuan.

$XPENG-W (09868.HK)$ Total revenue in Q2 was 8.111 billion yuan, up 60.22% year-on-year; net loss was 1.285 billion yuan, narrowing by 54.19% year-on-year; gross margin was 14.0%, up 17.9 percentage points year-on-year. The total number of cars delivered in the quarter was 0.0302 million, up 30.2% year-on-year.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: US EIA crude oil inventory until August 16th; 2024 FOMC Voting Member Bostic Speech; Xiaomi and HKEx earnings report.

On Wednesday, economic data: USA will release weekly API crude oil inventory, weekly EIA crude oil inventory, and weekly EIA strategic petroleum reserve inventory; Japan will release commodity import and export annual rate.

In terms of financial events, 2024 FOMC voting member, Atlanta Fed President Bostic will give a speech.

Regarding financial reports,$XIAOMI-W (01810.HK)$,$HKEX (00388.HK)$,$GEELY AUTO (00175.HK)$and$WUXI BIO (02269.HK)$ Will announce earnings today. $Target (TGT.US)$Financial results will be released in pre-market trading;$Snowflake (SNOW.US)$,$Zoom Video Communications (ZM.US)$Financial results will be released in post-market trading.

Futubull Morning News:

If your thinking is entirely dependent on others, and you seek expert advice as soon as you step outside your field, you will suffer many disasters.

-Charlie Munger

Editor/new

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