When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 17x, you may consider American States Water Company (NYSE:AWR) as a stock to avoid entirely with its 28.9x P/E ratio. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.
Recent times haven't been advantageous for American States Water as its earnings have been falling quicker than most other companies. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will turn things around completely and accelerate past most others in the market. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.
How Is American States Water's Growth Trending?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, American States Water would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.
Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 9.0%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 14% in total. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 8.0% per year as estimated by the two analysts watching the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 10% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's alarming that American States Water's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of American States Water's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 2 warning signs for American States Water you should be aware of, and 1 of them can't be ignored.
If you're unsure about the strength of American States Water's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
