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US stock market outlook: Market confidence fully restored! Goldman Sachs: US stocks expected to continue to rise in the next four weeks; multiple major banks sing the praises of Nvidia: The AI spending wave is still in its early stages, and Q2 performance

Futu News · Aug 20 20:17

热点要闻

三大股指期货盘前涨跌不一

半导体股多数上扬，Wolfspeed涨超2%，AMD涨近2%

Wedbush、高盛齐声唱多英伟达：AI支出浪潮尚处早期，Q2业绩仍将出色

Wedbush表示，随着人工智能支出热潮的全面展开， $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 必然会带来又一份强劲的季度业绩。该行表示，此前预测的1万亿美元人工智能支出“浪潮”正在进行中，科技公司仍处于投资人工智能硬件的早期阶段。高盛分析师也重申了他对英伟达的“确信买入”评级，以及135美元的目标价格，并表示英伟达的需求情况仍然令人信服。

小鹏汽车二季度营收同比大增60%至81.1亿元，毛利率达14%

$小鹏汽车 (XPEV.US)$ 二季度实现营收81.1亿元，同比增长60.2%，环比增长23.9%；经调整归属于普通股股东的净亏损为12.2亿元，去年同期亏26.7亿元；二季度公司毛利率为14%，较去年同期的-3.9%大幅增长17.9个百分点，环比增长1.1个百分点。汽车毛利率为6.4%，去年同期为-8.6%。截至发稿，小鹏汽车盘前涨近1%。

“AI大牛股”Palo Alto业绩展望超预期，且加码回购规模

$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$营收同比增长12%至22亿美元，Non-GAAP准则下的净利润则为5.22亿美元。对于整个2025财年的预期，Palo Alto 给出的总营收指引区间为91亿美元至91.5 亿美元；Non-GAAP每股收益指引区间则为6.18 美元至6.31 美元，均高于预期。此外，该公司董事会批准额外的5亿美元用于股票回购计划。截至发稿，该公司盘前涨超2%。

台积电首家欧洲晶圆厂破土动工，获德国政府50亿欧元补贴

在欧洲大陆寻求保障其芯片供应之际， $台积电 (TSM.US)$ 在德国东部德累斯顿的首家欧洲工厂破土动工。据悉，这家计划于2027年投产的晶圆厂耗资超100亿欧元(约合110亿美元)，德国政府为该工厂建设提供了50亿欧元的补贴。

AMD买下了英伟达“核心供应商”，AI服务器格局大变？

随着服务器在AI时代愈发重要， $美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$ 砸49亿美元收购“AI服务器龙头”ZT Systems，服务器市场格局或将迎来重塑。摩根大通指出，ZT在设计和服务方面的强大能力可以帮助促进AMD AI服务器在数据中心的部署。英伟达可能鼓励超大规模计算公司将英伟达AI服务器外包给除ZT之外的其他ODMs，这可能导致市场竞争格局更加集中。

全力追击英伟达！AMD多张call单暴赚两倍以上

AI芯片战火升级！ $美国超微公司 (AMD.US)$ 隔夜大涨超4%，期权交易量环比放大40%，看涨比大幅升至72%，call单纷纷遭抢筹，本周五到期，150-157,5美元之间行权的call均交投活跃，部分看涨单的期权金涨幅在两倍以上。

全球宏观

美股巨震后何去何从？高盛：美股未来四周有望继续上涨

高盛集团表示，投资者应该做好准备，迎接未来四周美国股市再创新高，但随后也要做好撤离的准备。美国股市正在进入“一个非常积极的四周股票交易窗口”，并强调在夏季结束的几周内，低波动性市场非常普遍，通常对股价有利。他进一步解释称，9月13日将有大约50%的公司进入禁售期，从现在到那时将会有大量的股票买盘。但该行仍预计股市将出现波动，对9月16日之后是否会进一步上涨不太确定。

“杰克逊霍尔”是股市福音？图解：历年这一盛会前后美股涨多跌少

本周，全球金融市场的一大核心看点便是即将于周四起拉开帷幕的杰克逊霍尔全球央行年会。根据DataTrek的数据，自2010年以来，标普500指数在杰克逊霍尔年会前后两周的平均回报率为0.9%。

金价站上2500美元后，分析师又看到了3000美元

花旗分析师表示，黄金投资者在未来三到六个月内看涨。该银行还表示，他们预计到2025年年中金价将达到每盎司3000美元，并预测今年第四季度平均金价为每盎司2550美元。

“哈里斯经济学”和“特朗普经济学”的共同点：赤字、赤字还是赤字！

RSM US的首席经济学家Joe Brusuelas表示，民主党候选人哈里斯和共和党候选人特朗普的经济计划将会通过增加政府支出和收紧劳动力市场等手段来实现，可能都会增加财政赤字。但是，特朗普提案的通货膨胀和永久性更高通货膨胀的风险更大。

美股盘前成交额TOP20

美股宏观事历提醒

（以下均为北京时间）

20:55 美国至8月17日当周红皮书商业零售销售年率

次日

01:35 2024年FOMC票委、亚特兰大联储主席博斯蒂克发表讲话

02:45 美联储理事巴尔就网络安全发表讲话

04:30 美国至8月16日当周API原油库存

编辑/Somer

Hot news

Mixed performance of the three major equity index futures before market opening.

Most semiconductor stocks are up, with Wolfspeed up more than 2% and AMD up nearly 2%.

Wedbush and Goldman Sachs sing the praises of Nvidia: the AI spending wave is still in its early stages, and Q2 results will still be strong.

Wedbush said that as the AI spending frenzy fully unfolds, it is inevitable that there will be another strong quarter. The bank said that the tidal wave of $1 trillion in AI spending previously forecast is underway, and technology companies are still in the early stages of investing in AI hardware. Goldman Sachs analysts also reiterated their "buy" rating on Nvidia and a target price of $135, and said that Nvidia's demand situation is still convincing. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$

In the second quarter, xpeng's revenue increased significantly by 60% year-on-year to 8.11 billion yuan, with a gross margin of 14%.

$XPeng (XPEV.US)$ Second-quarter revenue was RMB8.11 billion, up 60.2% year on year and 23.9% sequentially; adjusted net loss attributable to ordinary shareholders was RMB1.22 billion, compared with a loss of RMB2.67 billion in the same period last year; the gross profit margin of the company in the second quarter was 14%, an increase of 17.9 percentage points year on year from -3.9%, and an increase of 1.1 percentage points sequentially. Automotive gross margin was 6.4% compared with -8.6% in the same period last year. Xpeng Auto rose nearly 1% in pre-market trading.

The performance outlook of "AI giant" Palo Alto exceeds expectations and is increasing the scale of buybacks.

$Palo Alto Networks (PANW.US)$Revenue rose 12% year on year to $2.2 billion, while non-GAAP net income was $522 million. For the entire 2025 fiscal year, Palo Alto's total revenue guidance range is $9.1 billion to $9.15 billion; the non-GAAP earnings per share guidance range is $6.18 to $6.31, both higher than expected. In addition, the company's board of directors approved an additional $0.5 billion for its share buyback program. As of the time of writing, the company's share price is up more than 2% in pre-market trading.

TSMC's first European wafer fab broke ground and received a €5 billion subsidy from the German government.

$Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ As it seeks to secure its chip supply on the European continent, its first European plant in Dresden, eastern Germany, has broken ground. The wafer fab, which is expected to start production in 2027, costs more than €10 billion (about $11 billion), and the German government is providing a €5 billion subsidy for the construction of the plant.

AMD acquires Nvidia's "core supplier", will the AI server market change significantly?

As servers become increasingly important in the AI era, $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ Spending $4.9 billion to acquire 'AI server leader' ZT Systems, the server market may be reshaped. JPMorgan pointed out that ZT's strong capabilities in design and service can help promote the deployment of AMD AI servers in data centers. Nvidia may encourage ultra-large-scale computing companies to outsource Nvidia AI servers to other ODMs besides ZT, which could lead to a more concentrated market competition.

Fighting Nvidia with all their might! AMD's multiple call options make a profit of more than two times.

The AI chip war is heating up! $Advanced Micro Devices (AMD.US)$ It rose more than 4% overnight, and the trading volume of options trading increased by 40% compared to the previous period. The call ratio has risen sharply to 72%, and call options with exercise prices between 150-157.5 US dollars expiring this Friday are actively traded. The option premiums of some call options have increased by more than double.

Global macro

After the major tremors in the US stock market, where will it go next? Goldman Sachs: The US stock market is expected to continue to rise in the next four weeks.

Goldman Sachs has said investors should prepare for a new round of stock market highs over the next four weeks, but be prepared to withdraw. The US stock market is entering a "very positive four-week trading window," and the low-volatility market is usually favorable for stock prices in the weeks leading up to the end of summer. He further explained that about 50% of companies will enter a lock-up period on September 13, and there will be a lot of stock bids from now until then. However, the bank still expects the stock market to be volatile and uncertain whether it will continue to rise after September 16.

"Jackson Hole" is a blessing for the stock market? Illustration: over the years, the U.S. stock market has risen more than fallen before and after this event.

This week, one of the main focuses of the global financial markets will be the Jackson Hole global central bank annual meeting, which is set to begin on Thursday. According to DataTrek, the S&P 500 index has had an average return of 0.9% in the two weeks before and after the Jackson Hole meeting since 2010.

After the gold price rose above $2,500, analysts are now seeing $3,000.

Citigroup analysts said gold investors are bullish in the next three to six months. The bank also said it expects the average gold price to reach $3,000 per ounce by mid-2025, and predicts an average gold price of $2,550 per ounce for the fourth quarter of this year.

The similarities between 'Harris Economics' and 'Trump Economics': deficits, deficits, and more deficits!

Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM US, said the economic plans of Democratic candidate Harris and Republican candidate Trump would both increase the fiscal deficit by increasing government spending and tightening the labor market, among other measures. However, the risk of inflation and a more persistent inflation in Trump's proposal is greater.

Bilibili rose more than 3% pre-market trading and was upgraded to "buy" by UBS, which raised its EPS estimate per share.

Reminder for US Macro Events

(All in Peking Time)

US commercial retail sales annual rate for the week ending August 17 at 20:55.

Next day

Speech by FOMC voter and Atlanta Fed President Bostic on January 35, 2024.

Speech by Federal Reserve Board Member Barr on cybersecurity at 02:45.

API crude oil inventory for the week ending August 16 in the USA at 04:30.

Editor/Somer

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