氟化工Q2 利润环比向上，电容器和半导体稳健增长。有机氟化工24H1收入7 亿元，同-5%，主要由于含氟冷却液计入半导体化学品中，毛利率62%，同比下降10pct，主要由于海德福投产，一方面产能爬坡，另一方面产品价格低。H1 预计氟化工利润3.4 亿元左右，同比持平，其中Q2 为1.8-1.9 亿元，环比增20%+，Q2 海德福影响0.3 亿元利润，我们预计Q4 海德福将扭亏，全年氟化工我们预计贡献8.5 亿元利润+。24H1电容化学品收入3.7 亿元，同增20%，毛利率40%，同增2pct；半导体化学品收入1.8 亿元，同比增16%；我们预计电容器化学品及半导体化学品24H1 贡献利润近0.7 亿元，其中Q2 贡献利润0.2 亿元，我们预计24 年合计贡献1.5-2 亿元。Key points of investment
24Q2 performance slightly exceeded expectations: 24H1's revenue was 3.6 billion yuan, +4% year over year, net profit to mother 0.42 billion yuan, -20% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.43 billion yuan, or -10% year-on-year. Among them, Q2 revenue was 2.1 billion yuan, +16%/+36%; net profit to mother was 0.25 billion yuan, -8%/+52% month-on-month; gross profit margin was 28.4%, -2/+1pct, net profit margin was 12.4%, and -3/+1pct month-on-month.
Q2 Electrolyte shipments increased by 40%, and annual sales are expected to be close to 0.2 million tons. 1H battery chemicals revenue was 2.3 billion yuan, +4%, gross profit margin of 13.65%, 2pct year on year; electrolyte shipments were 0.079 million tons, up 50% year on year, and the growth rate was better than the industry average. Among them, in Q2, we expect shipments of 0.046 million tons, +50%/40% year over month. We expect Q3 to increase further month-on-month. We expect shipments to be close to 0.2 million tons in 24, up 50% year on year. Looking at profit, we expect 24H1's electrolyte to be marginally profitable. We expect 24Q2 to contribute 0.02-0.03 billion yuan of profit, and expected to contribute 0.1 billion yuan of profit in 24 years. In addition, the company's Polish plant is actively sending samples to local battery factories in the US, and overseas share is expected to increase in 25 years and improve profits.
Fluorine Chemical's Q2 profit increased month-on-month, and capacitors and semiconductors grew steadily. Organic Fluorine Chemical's revenue of 24H1 was 0.7 billion yuan, or -5%, mainly due to the inclusion of fluorine coolants in semiconductor chemicals, with a gross profit margin of 62%, a year-on-year decrease of 10 pct. Mainly due to the commissioning of production by Heidford. On the one hand, production capacity is climbing, and on the other hand, product prices are low. H1 expects the profit of Fluorine Chemical to be around 0.34 billion yuan, the same as the previous year. Among them, Q2 was 0.18-0.19 billion yuan, an increase of 20% + over the previous year. In Q2, Heidford affected 0.03 billion yuan of profit. We expect Heidford to reverse losses in Q4. We expect Heidford to reverse losses in Q4, and we expect to contribute 0.85 billion yuan of profit+ for the whole year. 24H1 Capacitor Chemicals's revenue was 0.37 billion yuan, with a gross profit margin of 40%, and an increase of 2 pct; semiconductor chemicals revenue was 0.18 billion yuan, up 16% year on year; we expect capacitor chemicals and semiconductor chemicals 24H1 to contribute nearly 0.07 billion yuan in profit, of which Q2 contributed 0.02 billion yuan, and we expect a total contribution of 0.15-0.2 billion yuan over 24 years.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the intense competition in the electrolyte industry, we lowered the company's 2024-2026 net profit forecast to 1.065/1.442/2.012 billion yuan (originally expected 1.201/1.642/2.252 billion yuan), compared to +5%/+35%/+40%, corresponding PE is 22/16/12 times. Considering the strong competitiveness of the company's fluorine chemical and high growth rate, and the electrolyte is currently at the bottom, giving PE 24 years 30x, target price of 42 yuan to maintain “buy” “Enter” rating.
Risk warning: Electric vehicle sales fell short of expectations, and industry competition intensified.
