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Hedge funds have increased their shareholding for the fourth consecutive week! Is it an investment opportunity for energy stocks?

Futu News · Aug 20 16:14

数据显示，对冲基金连续第四周增持了能源股，目前持有的能源股比例达到了今年的最高水平。此外，从已披露的13F报告显示，部分知名投资机构对能源股也进行了不同程度的买入动作。市场分析认为，“美联储降息”及“特朗普交易”均对能源股形成利好。

对冲基金增持能源股

高盛周一最新报告显示，对冲基金上周以自去年12月以来最快的速度减持工业股，同时连续第四周增持能源股，具体包括石油、天然气及可消耗燃料，以及能源设备和供应公司的股票。而且，他们目前持有的能源股比例创今年来新高。

高盛上周五的报告显示，对冲基金上周抛售的工业股数量达到五年来的最高水平，尽管在空运和国防股中有一定程度的买入，但对冲基金集中押注于提供专业服务、地面交通、机械制造以及客运航空业务的公司股票。

13F显示部分知名机构加仓能源股

据近期披露的13F数据显示，部分知名机构也在加仓能源股：

黑石集团Q2前五大重仓股中有四只均为能源股，分别为 $Cheniere Energy Partners LP (CQP.US)$ 、 $Energy Transfer (ET.US)$ 、 $第一能源 (FE.US)$ 以及 $切萨皮克能源 (CHK.US)$ 。此外，其前五大买入标的均为能源股，分别为 $威廉姆斯 (WMB.US)$ 、 $阿帕奇石油 (APA.US)$ 、 $Western Midstream (WES.US)$ 、 $Plains All American Pipeline (PAA.US)$ 以及 $Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$ 。
挪威主权财富基金在Q2增持了三大能源股—— $埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$ 、 $壳牌 (SHEL.US)$ 和 $英国石油 (BP.US)$ 。
桥水基金Q2建仓了包含 $美国联合能源 (LNT.US)$ 、 $Uranium Energy (UEC.US)$ 、 $雪佛龙 (CVX.US)$ 在内的多家能源与资源板块公司。

“美联储降息”及“特朗普交易”对能源股构成利好

分析认为，一方面对冲基金预测美国的利率可能会下降，降息通常会刺激经济增长，能源行业可能会因为经济的复苏而受益，所以自然成为了对冲基金的宠儿。财富管理公司Bentley Reid的首席投资官Paul O'Neill认为：

“如果美联储成功实现软着陆，全球经济增长将好于预期，这可能就是这些交易员转变策略的原因。”

目前市场预期美联储将于9月100%降息：据CME“美联储观察”，美联储9月降息25个基点的概率为77%，降息50个基点的概率为23%。美联储到11月累计降息50个基点的概率为60.1%，累计降息75个基点的概率为34.8%，累计降息100个基点的概率为5.0%。

因此考虑到降息前景，交易员正紧盯美联储主席鲍威尔周五在杰克逊霍尔发表讲话，以寻找未来几个月降息规模的线索。

另一方面，对冲基金押注于“特朗普交易”。有投资者在7月下旬透露称，这些对冲基金相信，如果特朗普当选，能源行业的监管可能会放松，从而有利于能源公司的发展。

自美国副总统哈里斯在上个月接替拜登，成为民主党预定提名的总统候选人之后，其支持率快速飙升，并已经出现了赶超共和党总统候选人特朗普的势头。

然而，当地时间周一，哈里斯背后最大的超级政治行动委员会创始人昌西·麦克莱恩（Chauncey McLean）表示，他们自己的民意调查结果并不像外部民意调查显示的那样“乐观”。

他还警告称，在此次大选的关键州中，民主党人所要面临的竞争可能要远比外部民调显示的更为激烈。

因此，特朗普或哈里斯谁能获胜并未有明显定论。若最终特朗普胜出，将对能源板块构成利好。

如何把握能源股的投资机会？

如果关注能源股个股的投资机会，可留意前文所述机构的13F买入个股，如 $埃克森美孚 (XOM.US)$ 、 $雪佛龙 (CVX.US)$ 、 $英国石油 (BP.US)$ 等。

而由于ETF投资简单，只需重点判断相应板块的方向即可，无需对个股业绩进行深入分析即可获得行业平均回报，因此投资者可通过投资ETF把握能源股的投资机会。具体可关注 $能源指数ETF-Vanguard (VDE.US)$ 、 $能源指数ETF-SPDR (XLE.US)$ 、 $美国原油基金ETF (USO.US)$ 等标的。

除了以上提及的ETF，市场上仍有其他能源ETF可供投资者选择，牛友们可以通过点击市场>ETF>主题ETF>能源ETF查看~

编辑/Jeffy

According to data, hedge funds have been increasing their holdings in energy stocks for the fourth consecutive week, with the proportion of energy stocks they currently hold reaching the highest level this year. In addition, some well-known investment institutions have also made varying degrees of buy actions on energy stocks, according to the 13F report already disclosed. Market analysts believe that "Fed rate cut" and "Trump trade" have formed a bullish trend for energy stocks.

Hedge funds increased their holdings in energy stocks.

Goldman Sachs's latest report on Monday showed that hedge funds reduced industrial stocks at the fastest rate since December last year, while continuously increasing energy stocks for the fourth week, including oil, natural gas and consumable fuels, as well as stocks of energy equipment and supply companies. Moreover, the proportion of energy stocks they currently hold has reached a new high this year.

Goldman Sachs's report last Friday showed that hedge funds sold the highest amount of industrial stocks in the past five years last week, despite a certain degree of buying in air transportation and defense stocks, but hedge funds focused on stocks of companies providing professional services, ground transportation, industrial machinery and passenger air transportation business.

13F shows some well-known institutions have increased their holdings in energy stocks.

According to recently disclosed 13F data, some well-known institutions are also increasing their holdings in energy stocks:

Four out of the top five holdings of Blackstone Group in Q2 are energy stocks, namely $Cheniere Energy Partners LP (CQP.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Energy Transfer (ET.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$FirstEnergy (FE.US)$ and $Chesapeake Energy (CHK.US)$ In addition, the top five buying targets are all energy stocks, namely $Williams (WMB.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Apache (APA.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Western Midstream (WES.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Plains All American Pipeline (PAA.US)$ and $Cheniere Energy (LNG.US)$.
Norway's sovereign wealth fund increased its holdings in three major energy stocks in Q2, namely $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Shell (SHEL.US)$ and $BP PLC (BP.US)$.
Bridgewater Associates established positions in multiple energy and resources sector companies in Q2, including $Alliant Energy (LNT.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Uranium Energy (UEC.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Chevron (CVX.US)$ .

"Fed rate cut" and "Trump trade" are favorable for energy stocks.

Analysts believe that, on the one hand, hedge funds predict that the US interest rate may fall, and rate cuts usually stimulate economic growth, the energy industry may benefit from the recovery of the economy, thus naturally becoming the darling of hedge funds. Paul O'Neill, chief investment officer of wealth management firm Bentley Reid, believes that:

Therefore, considering the prospects of interest rate cuts, traders are closely watching Fed Chairman Powell's speech on Friday at Jackson Hole for clues about the scale of interest rate cuts in the next few months.

At present, the market expects the Fed to cut interest rates by 100% in September: according to CME "FedWatch", the probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by 25 basis points in September is 77%, the probability of cutting 50 basis points is 23%. The probability of the Fed cutting interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points by November is 60.1%, the probability of a cumulative 75 basis points is 34.8%, and the probability of a cumulative 100 basis points is 5.0%.

On the other hand, hedge funds are betting on the "Trump trade". Some media reported in late July that these hedge funds believe that if Trump wins, the regulation of the energy industry may be relaxed, which will be beneficial to the development of energy companies. However, on the other hand, the stock prices of some European auto manufacturers have been negatively affected due to the expectation that Trump may be re-elected, as they may face US tariffs on imported cars.

On the other hand, hedge funds are betting on the "Trump trade". Some investors revealed in late July that these hedge funds believe that if Trump is elected, the regulation of the energy industry may be relaxed, which will be beneficial to the development of energy companies.

Since Vice President Harris took over from Biden last month as the Democratic Party's nominated presidential candidate, her approval rating has soared rapidly and there has been a trend of surpassing Republican presidential candidate Trump.

However, on Monday local time, Chauncey McLean, the founder of Harris' largest super political action committee, said that their own opinion polling results were not as "optimistic" as external opinion polls showed.

He also warned that in key states of the election, Democrats may face much fiercer competition than external polls show.

Therefore, it is not clear whether Trump or Harris will win. If Trump wins, it will be bullish for the energy sector.

How to seize investment opportunities in energy stocks?

If you are interested in investing in energy stocks, you can pay attention to the institutions' 13F buy-in stocks, such as $Exxon Mobil (XOM.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Chevron (CVX.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$BP PLC (BP.US)$ According to documents filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), some of the most prominent actions Third Point took in the second quarter, respectively, were to establish positions, shareholding of and more.

As ETF investment is simple, you only need to determine the direction of the corresponding sector and can obtain the average industry return without in-depth analysis of individual stock performance. Therefore, investors can seize investment opportunities in energy stocks by investing in ETFs. Specifically, you can pay attention to $Vanguard Energy Index Fund ETF (VDE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE.US)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$United States Oil Fund LP (USO.US)$ and other symbols.

In addition to the mentioned ETFs above, there are other energy ETFs available for investors to choose. Mooers can check by clicking on Market>ETF>Theme ETF>Energy ETF~

Editor/Jeffy

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