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艾罗能源(688717):户储赛道具备高成长性 公司加速开拓新市场

Aero Energy (688717): High-growth companies on the household storage circuit accelerate the development of new markets

中泰證券 ·  Aug 19

An internationally renowned supplier of photovoltaic energy storage systems and products. The company mainly provides overseas customers with energy storage inverters, energy storage batteries, and grid-connected inverters, which are used in distributed photovoltaic energy storage and grid-connected fields. In 2019-2022, the company's revenue increased from 0.39 billion yuan to 4.61 billion yuan, and the CAGR was 128%; net profit to mother increased from less than 0.01 billion yuan in 2019 to 1.13 billion yuan in 2022, showing a rapid growth trend. Performance declined slightly in 2023 due to European inventory withdrawals.

Countries in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, South Africa, and Latin America have strong demand drivers for developing household photovoltaic+energy storage.

Most countries in Southeast Asia, South Africa, and Latin America are in the tropics, and the annual lighting time and intensity are significantly higher than in countries and regions such as China, America, and Europe. Judging from the electricity supply and demand situation, most countries in the above regions have problems such as high electricity demand growth, insufficient power grid infrastructure, old power generation equipment, and frequent power outages. Household photovoltaic+energy storage is needed to improve the stability of power supply. Countries in the above regions are all focusing on the transformation of electricity structures to new energy sources, and have introduced policies to facilitate the growth of household photovoltaics and energy storage, including cash subsidies, tax exemptions or tax cuts, and preferential interest rates, to further stimulate demand growth.

It is economical for residents in 100 countries around the world to install household photovoltaic+energy storage. According to global petrol price data, by the end of 2023, electricity prices for residents in 100 countries around the world exceeded 0.60 yuan/kWh, which is higher than our estimated LCOE of household photovoltaic+energy storage. Compared with purchasing electricity from the power grid, configuring household photovoltaic+energy storage can save electricity costs, and is expected to further open up the global household storage market space in the future.

The company is actively expanding markets including South Africa, North America, and Asia. Of the company's total revenue in 2023, the share from Europe was 88.1%, down 6.4 percentage points year on year; in the non-European market, Asia grew faster, accounting for 6.2% of revenue, up 4.2 percentage points year on year. In response to the cost performance characteristics of emerging markets, the company has developed a split low voltage energy storage battery system, which is lower in cost, equipped with a battery management system with better performance, and is easy to install.

First coverage, giving a “buy” rating. We expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 4.56/5.65/7.1 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 2%, 24%, and 26% respectively; in 2024-2026, the company's net profit to mother will be 0.48, 0.8, and 1.09 billion yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of -55%, 68%, and 37% respectively; the corresponding PE valuation is 24, 14, and 10 times, respectively. Among them, the 2025 PE valuation is lower than the average of comparable companies. Combined with the company's rapid net profit growth rate, the energy storage battery market share There is an upward trend in the rate. It was covered for the first time, and the company was given a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Household storage sales fall short of expectations; prices of upstream raw materials have risen above expectations; industry competition has intensified; risk of deviations in industry estimates; risk of untimely update of usage information data.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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