Since Vice President Harris took over from Biden last month as the Democratic Party's nominated presidential candidate, her approval rating has soared rapidly and there has been a trend of surpassing Republican presidential candidate Trump. On Monday local time, the founder of the largest Democratic super political action committee behind Harris said that their own public opinion survey results were not as optimistic as external polls show.
Since Vice President Harris took over from Biden last month as the Democratic Party's nominated presidential candidate, her approval rating has soared rapidly and there has been a trend of surpassing Republican presidential candidate Trump.
However, Chauncey McLean, founder of the largest super political action committee behind Harris, said on Monday that their own public opinion survey results were not as optimistic as external polls show.
He also warned that in key states of the election, Democrats may face much fiercer competition than external polls show.
"Not as optimistic as the polls"
On Monday local time, the US Democratic Party held the National Party Convention in Chicago, and Chauncey McLean, the chairman of the Democratic Party's largest super political action committee, Future Forward, gave a speech at the event.
Super political action committees (SPACs) are a kind of political organizations that emerged in the US in 2010. They are designed to influence election results by raising and spending large amounts of money. In simple terms, they are the main channel for big donors to donate money to candidates in US elections.
Compared with traditional political action committees, super political action committees can accept unlimited donations from all parties, and the only limitation is that they cannot contact candidates or their campaign teams directly. Therefore, they are usually used to fund advertising, propaganda activities, and other political actions to support or oppose specific candidates or policies.
Currently, Future Forward, the largest super political action committee, has raised hundreds of millions of dollars to support Harris in the election on November 5th.
"Our data is not as optimistic as what you see in public," said Chauncey McLean, chairman of Future Forward, who rarely speaks publicly.
Are the poll results wrong?
Multiple polls show that since Harris took over from Biden as the Democratic candidate, Trump's original high victory rate has been greatly weakened, and Harris has a clear trend of catching up and surpassing.
The national poll by FiveThirtyEight shows that Harris is currently leading with a support rate of 46.7%, while Trump's rate is 43.8%. At the same time, in several battleground states, Harris' poll support rate is also leading.
Polls conducted by ABC News, The Washington Post, and Ipsos from August 9th to 13th also show that Harris has a support rate of 49% among registered voters, while Trump's is 45%.
In addition to polling websites, gambling platforms also show similar results. According to the Polymarket website, Harris has a slightly higher chance of winning the election this year with 50%, slightly surpassing Trump, whose chance is 49%.
However, the large-scale poll conducted by Future Forward apparently showed different results. They spoke with about 0.375 million Americans in the weeks after Harris became the Democratic nominee on July 22nd.
Although he did not disclose specific approval rating data, he warned that Harris has not yet fully regained the support of black, Hispanic, and young voters, who sent Biden to the White House in the 2020 election.
McLean also said that after Biden withdrew from the election, Harris' support mainly came from young voters of color. This gives the Democratic Party a chance to win in southern states such as Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina - states that the Democratic Party had basically given up on during the later stages of Biden's campaign.
"She has multiple paths to victory." There are seven states that she can compete for, which is completely different from the situation when Biden ran. In addition to the above four states, he also mentioned Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan.
McClain said in the organization's analysis that Pennsylvania remains the most important state and Harris must win one of the three states of Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia to take over the White House.
McClain also mentioned that public opinion polls showed that the public wants Harris to propose more detailed policy positions.
He said that voters don't want to hear those clichés anymore, but need Harris to offer more specific examples to explain how she may differ from Biden and improve their economic life.
McCain said that the competition in the US election has never been so fierce: "Our competition is very fierce and tense, and almost comprehensive."
Editor/ping