Event Overview:
Recently, Kingdee International announced its 2024 interim results. In the first half of this year, the company achieved operating income of 2.87 billion yuan, an increase of 11.9% over the previous year; equity holders should account for the current loss of about 0.218 billion yuan, and the loss decreased by 23.2% year on year.
Cloud subscriptions to ARR continue to grow, and operate the large enterprise market with high quality
According to the semi-annual report, 1) The cloud service business achieved revenue of 2.389 billion yuan, an increase of about 17.2% over the previous year, accounting for about 83.2% of the group's revenue. The annual recurring revenue (ARR) of Kingdee Cloud subscription services is approximately 3.15 billion yuan (YoY +24.2%), and contract liabilities related to cloud subscription services are 2.708 billion yuan (YoY +28.2%). ① In terms of large enterprises: Kingdee Cloud Cangqiong and Kingdee Cloud Xinghan recorded a total cloud service revenue of about RMB 0.546 billion (YoY +38.9%), with a contract signing of 0.9 billion yuan, an increase of about 63% over the previous year; the ARR of Cangqiu and Xinghan Cloud subscriptions increased 29% year over year, and the net dollar retention (NDR) rate (NDR) was 97%. The ARR of Sky & Star Han has continued to increase, and customer subscriptions over 1 million account for 35% of ARR amounts. ② For medium-sized enterprises: Kingdee Cloud Starry Sky achieved revenue of approximately RMB 1.054 billion (YoY +14.3%); subscription ARR increased 24% year over year, customer net renewal rate was 95%, and operating profit margin reached 20%. The number of customers reached 0.042 million, and 611 new national and provincial specialty enterprises were newly signed. ③ For small and micro enterprises: Xiaowei Finance Cloud achieved revenue of approximately RMB 0.588 billion (YoY +17.3%), and the ARR subscription to Xiaowei Finance Cloud increased 31% year-on-year. Among them, Kingdee Cloud's revenue increased by about 70.8% year-on-year, and the net renewal rate was 92%; Kingdee Cloud's NDR was 87%, and the operating profit margin was as high as 40%. 2) The enterprise resource management plan business and other business revenue of 0.481 billion yuan (YoY -8.8%) is mainly due to the Group's continued deepening cloud transformation, focusing on developing and promoting cloud subscription products, and actively reducing traditional ERP license sales.
The comprehensive gross margin is about 63.2% (YOY+1.3pct), mainly due to the increase in subscription revenue share.
Sales/management/R&D expenses were 42.7%/8.7%/28.1%, respectively, -1.9/-0.6/-0.9pct.
AI empowers innovation in enterprise management scenarios and explores new tracks for Chinese enterprises to go overseas
Kingdee Cloud Sky upgraded to a next-generation enterprise-grade AI platform and launched Cosmic, a super intelligent AI management assistant. Currently, in large enterprises such as Hisense Group, Wen's Co., Ltd., China Jinmao, and C&D Real Estate, the application of financial and human resources AI has been verified, demonstrating the practical application potential of Cosmic in enterprise management. At the same time, Kingdee continues to deepen cooperation with Baidu, Microsoft, AWS, Tencent, etc. in the field of AI models to jointly explore intelligent applications in new scenarios.
Additionally, ISV partners based on the Kingdee Cloud and Sky platform have built more than 150 applications, covering 19 industries.
Kingdee Cloud Starry Sky has strengthened GlobalEase's global capabilities and effectively helped Chinese companies go overseas. 121 new companies were signed during the period, covering countries and regions such as Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, the Philippines, the United States and Europe, including Minglida Precision, Tang Qun Chair, Macesse, and Xiongtao Power. Kingdee, AWS, and Microsoft jointly support compliance operations, data security, and local business strategies for Chinese enterprises to go overseas.
Investment advice
Kingdee International is a leading enterprise in the domestic ERP industry. Considering that it is still in the subscription transition period and is not yet profitable, we believe that successful transformation is expected to lead to loss of performance and rapid growth, so PS valuation is used. The company's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is expected to be 6.527/7.57/8.838 billion yuan, and net profit to mother is -0.091/0.026/0.182 billion yuan, respectively.
For the first time, coverage was given a Buy-A investment rating, with a 6-month target price of HK$8.37, which is equivalent to a dynamic market sales ratio of 5 times in 2024. (Note: The data units related to Kingdee's financial operations in this article are all RMB. The stock price unit is Hong Kong dollars. The reference exchange rate is 1 HKD = 0.92 RMB)
Risk warning:
Order delivery for large enterprise customers falls short of expectations, subscription expansion falls short of expectations, and the risk of macroeconomic fluctuations.