长链二元酸市场改善，癸二酸放量带动业绩增长。2024 年上半年，长链二元酸市场复苏，根据海关数据测算，2024 年上半年国内癸二酸出口量为2.8 万吨，同比增长47.2%。公司紧抓市场机遇，加大产品销售力度，新产品癸二酸产能放量，长链二元酸销售量和销售收入较去年同期大幅上涨。24年上半年公司癸二酸实现营收2.82 亿元（2023 年全年营收3.92 亿元），若以海关披露的24H1 癸二酸出口均价测算（2.62 万元/吨），上半年公司或实现销售1.07 万吨，产能利用率或达到50%。产能利用率的提升推动盈利能力改善，2024 年上半年公司毛利率为31.22%，较2023 年全年提升2.43%。Description of the event
On August 16, 2024, Kaiser Biotech released its 2024 semi-annual report. 24H1 achieved revenue of 1.444 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 40.16%, and achieved net profit of 0.247 billion yuan to mother, an increase of 2.31% year-on-year, after deducting non-net profit of 0.24 billion yuan, an increase of 11.34% year-on-year. Among them, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 0.76 billion yuan, +44.72%/+10.99%, realized net profit to mother of 0.142 billion yuan, -22.90%/+35.08% YoY, deducted 0.137 billion yuan of non-net profit, and -13.13%/+32.74% YoY.
Incident reviews
The long chain binary acid market improved, and the amount of sebacic acid released led to an increase in performance. In the first half of 2024, the long chain binary acid market recovered. According to customs data, domestic sebacic acid exports in the first half of 2024 were 0.028 million tons, an increase of 47.2% over the previous year. The company is seizing market opportunities and increasing product sales. The production capacity of the new product sebacic acid, sales volume and sales revenue of long-chain dibasic acid have risen sharply compared to the same period last year. The company achieved revenue of 0.282 billion yuan for sebacic acid in the first half of '24 (0.392 billion yuan for the full year of 2023). Using the average export price of 24H1 sebacic acid disclosed by customs (0.0262 million/ton), the company may have sold 0.0107 million tons in the first half of the year, and the capacity utilization rate may reach 50%. Increased capacity utilization led to improved profitability. The company's gross margin for the first half of 2024 was 31.22%, up 2.43% from the full year of 2023.
Bio-based polyamide has significant energy saving and emission reduction advantages, and material application cooperation expanded smoothly in the first half of '24.
According to the company's disclosure, each ton of bio-based polyamide can reduce carbon emissions by more than 50% compared to petrochemicals. Currently, downstream applications of bio-based polyamide include fields such as textiles, clothing and engineering plastics. The thermoplastic composites developed by the company can be used in fields such as new energy, transportation and logistics. At present, the company has sold 0.1 million tons of bio-based polyamide, with a production capacity of 0.9 million tons under construction. On May 25, the company held a grand signing ceremony for the tripartite strategic cooperation between the Hefei Municipal Government and China Merchants Innovation and Technology Group to help build a bio-based materials industry cluster and ecosystem in Hefei. On June 18, the company and Fuyang Trading established a strategic cooperation. The two sides will jointly build the world's first bio-based thermoplastic composite photovoltaic frame application demonstration project based on bio-based polyamide materials, replace new materials for aluminum frames, and gradually promote them in other distributed photovoltaic projects and photovoltaic power plant projects.
Investment advice
We predict that from 2024 to 2026, the company will achieve revenue of 2.996/4.825/7.649 billion yuan, respectively, an increase of 41.73%/61.01%/58.54%; achieve net profit to mother of 0.514/0.708/0.859 billion yuan, an increase of 40.27%/37.67%/21.33% year-on-year, corresponding EPS of 0.88/1.21/1.47 yuan, and PE 40.84/29.24.45 times, maintaining” “Accumulated holdings - B” rating.
Risk warning
Risk that fund-raising capacity construction progress falls short of expectations; risk of product development and sales falling short of expectations; risk of market competition.
