原料药毛利率显著提升，千牧打造肝素长期优势。报告期内，公司原料药营收2.69亿元，同比下降41.34%，毛利率33.70%，同比提升20.31pp。肝素原料药行业已有回暖迹象，截至2024年6月，肝素出口价格为5477美元/kg，处于肝素周期底部区间，2024H1肝素累计出口75.22吨，同比增长20.13%，供需关系持续改善，2024H2有望开启新一轮肝素价格上行周期。公司与牧原股份合作成立河南千牧，打造高端肝素原料药，河南千牧建立从养殖到屠宰到加工的现代化一条龙生产线，预计2024年底投产，为公司提供充足的肝素上游原材料，保证产业链高质量溯源能力，有望进入原研产业链，不断提升利润空间。Key points of investment
Net profit increased significantly. 2023H1 achieved operating income of 0.856 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 19.04%, net profit of 0.183 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 53.57%, after deducting non-return net profit of 0.179 billion yuan, an increase of 60.64% year-on-year. In terms of period expenses, the sales expenses ratio was 18.41%, a year-on-year decrease of 2.16pp, and the R&D expenses ratio was 3.73%, a year-on-year decrease of 0.15pp. The company's revenue for the Q2 quarter of 2024 was 0.394 billion yuan, down 12.05% year on year, and net profit to mother was 0.079 billion yuan, up 137.87% year on year.
The significant profit side increase in the first half of 2024 was mainly due to a reduction in the cost of upstream raw materials for heparin APIs, a sharp increase in gross margin, and a gradual decline in the company's sales expenses ratio. The company's performance was basically in line with expectations.
The gross margin of APIs increased significantly, and Qianmu created a long-term advantage in heparin. During the reporting period, the company's API revenue was 0.269 billion yuan, down 41.34% year on year, and gross profit margin was 33.70%, up 20.31 pp year on year. The heparin API industry has shown signs of recovery. As of June 2024, the export price of heparin was 5,477 US dollars/kg, at the bottom of the heparin cycle. In 2024H1, heparin exports totaled 75.22 tons, an increase of 20.13% over the previous year. The supply and demand relationship continues to improve. 2024H2 is expected to start a new heparin price upward cycle. The company cooperated with Muyuan Co., Ltd. to establish Henan Qianmu to build a high-end heparin API. Henan Qianmu established a modern one-stop production line from breeding to slaughter to processing. It is expected to be put into operation by the end of 2024, providing the company with sufficient upstream heparin raw materials to ensure high-quality traceability of the industrial chain. It is expected to enter the original research industry chain and continuously improve profit margins.
Innovative R&D is progressing smoothly, accelerating the transformation of innovative pharmaceutical companies. The company has 4 innovative drugs in phase II clinical trials. Among them, QHRD107 (CDK9 inhibitor) is an innovative drug independently developed by the company to treat AML. The oral dosage form is safe, the domestic target progress is leading, and phase II clinical expansion is smooth. It is expected that phased progress will be achieved by the end of 2024, and the future is expected to be marketed with conditions based on good clinical data. QHRD106 (Indication is acute ischemic stroke). Phase II clinical protocol discussions have been held and approved by the CDE without reservation. QHRD110 (CDK4/6 inhibitor) has completed phase I clinical trials in Australia, and clinical bridging tests are being carried out domestically. The company differentiates the indications for glioma. QHRD211 (indicated for slow growth in children lacking growth hormone) has also completed phase I clinical trials and entered phase II clinical trials. In addition, the company has other innovative pharmaceutical products that are steadily advancing, laying the foundation for the company's innovation and transformation.
Investment advice: We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to be 2.05/2.422/2.732 billion yuan, respectively, net profit to mother of 0.322/0.394/0.462 billion yuan, corresponding EPS 0.25/0.31/0.36 yuan, and corresponding PE 22.48/18.34/15.64 respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: risk of heparin price fluctuations; risk of drug sales falling short of expectations; risk of R&D progress falling short of expectations.
