According to TrendForce, the popularity of AR devices is increasing year by year. In addition to international brands like Apple and Meta having related product plans in the future, Chinese manufacturers are also quite active in the LED and optoelectronics fields.
According to the latest survey by TrendForce, due to the product planning of AR equipment brand manufacturers and the development of AI technology and application ecosystems, it is estimated that the shipment volume of AR devices will reach 25.5 million units by 2030, with a compound annual growth rate of 67% from 2023 to 2030. By then, the penetration rate of LED and optoelectronics in this field is expected to gradually increase to 44%, becoming the mainstream technology in the market.
According to TrendForce, the popularity of AR devices is increasing year by year. In addition to international brands like Apple and Meta having related product plans in the future, Chinese manufacturers are also quite active in the LED and optoelectronics fields. AR device requirements include strict standards for optical module volume, penetration effect under high environmental light, and brightness of the display system. It includes two core systems: the optical engine determines the refresh rate, color and brightness limit, while the optical system controls imaging characteristics. These two systems jointly affect device key performance indicators such as pixel density (PPD), viewing angle (FOV) and optical efficiency.
The market penetration rate of LED and optoelectronics is expected to reach 44%, surpassing the penetration rate of OLED and optoelectronics.
Due to its characteristics of meeting the high brightness, small size, and low power consumption requirements of AR devices, LED and optoelectronics technology is considered an important technical reserve. In the short term, this technology has gained support from brand merchants due to its advantages in AR display applications. For example, Porotech's cooperation with Foxconn is expanding its application scenarios. Currently, LED and optoelectronics still face the challenge of improving the efficiency of miniaturized LED luminescence and achieving full-colorization in extremely limited space. However, in the next few years, with the maturity of chip vertical stacking and color conversion technology, the penetration rate of LED and optoelectronics will continue to increase. TrendForce predicts that by 2024, LED and optoelectronics will have a market share of 18% in AR devices, and by 2030, it will rise to 44%.
According to TrendForce, from the analysis of existing cost structure, market and technological maturity, OLED and optoelectronics are currently the only technologies that can be used in VR/MR and AR devices at the same time. OLED and optoelectronics combined with BirdBath's solution are currently the most cost-effective and display-effective solution. Although the resolution of OLED and optoelectronics has improved rapidly, in AR application scenarios, the balanced brightness and color display of this technology are still somewhat limited. In addition, its market share will be affected by the development of LED and optoelectronics. The estimated technical proportion of OLED and optoelectronics in AR devices will decrease from 54% in 2024 to 25% in 2030.
Compared with LED and optoelectronics or OLED and optoelectronics, LCoS technology has high resolution and high brightness characteristics, and it has advantages in process yield and cost. However, due to the design and architecture of polarizing beam splitter, the LCoS suffers from limitations in shrinking machine size. For LED and optoelectronics, It faces the risk of being gradually replaced in the high-end market. However, as technology advances and with the participation of Meta and other brands, LCoS will maintain a certain market share in AR devices. TrendForce predicts that in 2024, LCoS's market share will be around 12%, and it will rise to around 18% by 2030.
Compared with LED and optoelectronics or OLED and optoelectronics, LCoS technology has high resolution and high brightness characteristics, and it has advantages in process yield and cost. However, due to the design and architecture of polarizing beam splitter, the LCoS suffers from limitations in shrinking machine size. For LED and optoelectronics, It faces the risk of being gradually replaced in the high-end market. However, as technology advances and with the participation of Meta and other brands, LCoS will maintain a certain market share in AR devices. TrendForce predicts that in 2024, LCoS's market share will be around 12%, and it will rise to around 18% by 2030.
According to TrendForce, LBS uses laser light source reflecting fast reaction speed, but since it realizes continuous image display through fast lattice scanning, refresh rate and resolution are still limited. Therefore, TrendForce predicts that its market share will remain at around 10% to 12% from 2024 to 2030. However, DLP technology still faces challenges in meeting the high resolution requirements of AR and has insufficient brand promotion. Therefore, the estimated technical market share of DLP in AR devices will be reduced to 1% by 2030.