投资建议：维 持增持评级。公司近期新设珍三十事业部，单品聚焦叠加组织赋能有望打开增长空间，维持2024-26 年经调整EPS 0.59元、0.73 元、0.89 元，考虑公司成长势能较强，参考可比公司给予公司2024 年20X PE，维持目标价12.6 港元。Introduction to this report:
The company recently established a new Zhen 30 division. After the independent operation of Zhen 30, it will focus resources on terminal construction and services, further improve the channel layout, and superimpose the company's organizational efficiency capabilities, which is expected to open up room for growth.
Key points of investment:
Investment advice: Maintain an increase in holdings rating. The company recently established a new Zhen30 division. The single product focuses on superposition organization and is expected to open up room for growth, maintaining adjusted EPS of 0.59 yuan, 0.73 yuan, and 0.89 yuan in 2024-26. Considering the company's strong growth potential, refer to the comparable company giving the company 20X PE in 2024, maintaining a target price of HK$12.6.
The Zhenjiu brand strategy was upgraded, and the Zhen30 division was added. Recently, the company adjusted the strategic layout of the Zhenjiu brand and established a new Zhen30 division. Previously, Zhen30 moved from the Premium Liquor Division to the Zhenjiu Division, focusing on developing distribution channels and improving the channel layout. Currently, the transformation and sorting from the original group purchase channel to the distribution channel has basically been completed, and 24H1 has achieved relatively rapid growth. After the establishment of the Zhen 30 Division, it will empower partners and accelerate terminal construction around “service+experience” through profit sharing through control panels.
Empowering efficiency is expected to open up room for single product growth. In 2023, the Zhenjiu brand achieved revenue of about 4.6 billion yuan, contributing about 2/3 of the company's revenue. According to channel research, we expect the revenue of Zhen 30 to be about 1 billion yuan, which has a strong market foundation. At the same time, since 2023, the company has continuously optimized human efficiency and unleashed the effectiveness of the sales team. The Mid-Autumn Festival sales season of Zhenjiu 24 began in mid-August. As Zhen30 focuses and combines organizational empowerment, it is expected to boost the brand and open up room for growth. It is expected that the results of the 24H2 channel construction will be further demonstrated, and the volume of Zhenjiu is expected to rise to the next level.
Channel intensive cultivation, market exploration, and steady progress in operations. Since 2024, the Zhenjiu brand has vigorously promoted a dual-channel growth strategy, actively expanded outlets and added banquet scenarios. The first half of the year is expected to operate smoothly. Currently, the company's channel operations are steadily moving towards refinement, and the core market continues to gain strength. In the second half of the year, with the upgrading and implementation of the core products, Zhen 15 and Zhen30 products, in line with the immersive experiential marketing style, it is expected to consolidate quality, enhance brand awareness, and build energy for future growth.
Risk warning: large macroeconomic fluctuations, increased industry competition, food safety risks, etc.
