投资建议：公司持续降本增效，国内投放相对谨慎，经营效率可控。公司加大海外业务投放力度，自主品牌外销收入有望加速增长。ODM/OEM 业务随各主要客户库存的恢复有望持续回升。我们预计2024-2026 年公司收入分别为7.32/8.12/8.98 亿元，同比增长10%/11%/11%，实现归母净利润分别为0.82/0.92/1.03 亿元，同比增长15%/11%/13%，对应 EPS 分别为0.25/0.28/0.32 元，当前股价对应 PE 分别为29/26/23 倍，维持“推荐”评级。Event: On August 15, 2024, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved total revenue of 0.322 billion yuan (+0.2%) and net profit of 0.032 billion yuan (-15.2%) to mother. 2024Q2 achieved total revenue of 0.163 billion yuan (+7.8%) and net profit of 0.009 billion yuan (-53.4%) to mother.
Export sales of independent brands continued to increase, and the OEM business is still booming. 2024H1 achieved total revenue of 0.322 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, of which 24Q2 achieved total revenue of 0.163 billion yuan, an increase of 7.8% over the previous year. By business, 2024Q2's own brands achieved revenue of 0.127 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.6%, and the growth rate improved significantly from month to month. Among them, domestic/export sales revenue was 0.113/0.013 billion yuan respectively, +0.1%/30.6% year-on-year. The domestic sales growth rate of independent brands improved, and export sales expansion progressed steadily. In addition, 24Q2's OEM/ODM business achieved revenue of 0.036 billion yuan, an increase of 31.3% over the previous year, and the OEM business continued to pick up as the inventory of major customers recovered.
Expenses have increased, and profitability is under pressure in the short term. 2024H1 achieved net profit of 0.032 billion yuan (-15.2%), of which 24Q2 achieved net profit of 0.009 billion yuan (-53.4%) to mother, putting pressure on the profit side. The gross margin of 2024Q2 was 48.26%, -1.49pct year on year. We expect mainly that the gross margin of export sales and OEM sales will be lower than domestic sales, and the gross margin will decrease due to structural changes. On the cost side, the 2024Q2 sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratios were 33.18/8.63/6.37/ -1.20%, respectively, compared to +5.36/ -2.16/+0.64/+2.96pcts, respectively. We expect the increase in sales expenses mainly for companies to increase their domestic and overseas sales expenses; the increase in financial expense ratio is mainly due to a decrease in exchange earnings. 2024Q2 net margin was 5.73%, -7.53pct YoY.
Investment advice: The company continues to reduce costs and increase efficiency, is relatively cautious in domestic investment, and has manageable operating efficiency. The company is increasing its overseas business investment, and the export sales revenue of its own brands is expected to grow at an accelerated pace. The ODM/OEM business is expected to continue to pick up as major customer inventories recover. We expect the company's revenue in 2024-2026 to be 0.732/0.812/0.898 billion yuan, up 10%/11% year on year, and realized net profit of 0.082/0.092/0.103 billion yuan, up 15%/11%/13% year on year, corresponding EPS 0.25/0.28/0.32 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 29/26/23 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: increased market competition, fluctuations in raw material costs, exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
