Finance Association, August 17 (Editor Shi Zhengcheng) Last night and this morning, as the US stock market narrative maintained a “steady decline in inflation and economic resilience”, the three major indices pulled up after opening low, and eventually closed slightly collectively. Friday was also the seventh consecutive trading day for the S&P 500 index and NASDAQ to strengthen.

After four weeks of continuous decline and shock, the US stock market also experienced the biggest weekly gain this year (after the end of October last year, to be exact) this week. Unwittingly, the S&P 500 is only about 2% away from its all-time high. Driven by Nvidia's 18.93% surge, the NASDAQ has accumulated a cumulative increase of more than 5% this week.

Mark Haefele, head of investment at UBS Global Wealth Management, said on Friday that the economic data for the past week had reached an appropriate balance, neither too cold nor too hot. This should help ease a range of market concerns, including a recession, or that stagnant inflation will hinder the ability of the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates to defend the economy.

On the commodities side, the biggest news last night was the historic rise of spot gold above the 2,500 US dollars/ounce integer mark. Although the market's expectations for the amount of the Fed's interest rate cut in September have returned to 25 basis points, the Fed's entry into the interest rate cut cycle itself is still a major benefit for gold. The crude oil market continues to fluctuate widely along with progress in the peace talks in Gaza and expectations that Iran will exercise restraint at least this week.

Market news

[Harris Announces Economic Agenda: Building a House & Subsidized Down Payment]

US presidential candidate Kamala Harris unveiled her campaign economic agenda for the first time on Friday. At the North Carolina rally, she proposed the concept of building an “opportunity economy,” which includes policies such as cracking down on excessive price increases by retailers, providing tax credits to families with newborns and children, limiting prescription drug spending, increasing the supply of real estate, and providing a $0.025 million down payment subsidy for first-time homebuyers.

[Federal Reserve's “Big Dove” Reminder: High Interest Rates May Have Gone Too Far]

Chicago Federal Reserve Chairman Austin Goolsbee (Austan Goolsbee) said on Friday that the US economy is showing no signs of overheating, and central bank officials should be wary of “whether restrictive policies have been maintained for longer than necessary.”

[Officials from many countries expect “Iran to postpone retaliation plans”]

According to US media reports on Friday, citing US, Iranian and Israeli officials, the current expectation is that Iran will postpone retaliation against Israel, thereby giving the co-ordinators more time for the Gaza cease-fire negotiations.

As a backdrop, senior US, Israel, Egypt, and Qatar officials continued negotiations in the Qatari capital Doha on Friday. The co-ordinator issued a joint statement after the meeting, saying that a “transitional proposal” has been submitted to Israel and Hamas, and the parties are expected to continue to meet until next weekend.

[EU raises alert level for monkeypox outbreak]

The European Center for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) raised the alert level for the monkeypox outbreak on Friday and expects more imported monkeypox cases in the coming weeks. The ECDC said the risk of infection is “moderate” after close contact with imported cases suspected or confirmed to be infected with the new strain of monkeypox. As long as imported cases are diagnosed quickly and control measures are taken, the possibility of continued spread of monkeypox in Europe is very low.

On Friday, US monkeypox concept stocks surged again, boosted by continuous news of the outbreak. Among them, SIGA Technologies rose 9.04%, Emergency Biosolutions rose 24.02%, and GeoVax Labs rose 110.75%. Danish monkeypox vaccine manufacturer Bavaria in Northern Europe surged 17.83% during the European trading session.

[“Black Myths: Goku” Global Media Review Banned]

On Friday evening, Beijing time, “Black Myths: Goku”, which is expected to be the “first 3A masterpiece” in the Chinese game industry, welcomed media reviews and the ban lifted. According to statistics from the well-known game rating site Metacritic, as of Saturday morning, 54 media outlets around the world had an average rating of 82 points. Among them, more than 10 media outlets gave high scores of over 90, and many organizations gave full reviews.

[Former Director of German Intelligence Service: Poland may participate in the “Nord Stream” pipeline explosion]

Former German intelligence director August Hanning said in an interview with the German media “Le Monde” on the 16th that Poland probably participated in the “Nord Stream” gas pipeline explosion in September 2022. Hanning speculates that Polish then-President Duda and Ukrainian President Zelensky may have reached “an agreement” to blow up the gas pipeline, and Poland provided logistical support to the disruptors. He stressed that without the support of the Polish military and intelligence services, the Ukrainian team would not have been able to carry out the explosion. He also claimed that Poland deliberately blocked Germany's investigation into the incident.

[The plane the US Republican vice presidential candidate Vance was on had an emergency and was forced to land]

US Republican vice presidential candidate James Vance, Ohio Senator James Vance, faced an emergency when flying from Milwaukee, Wisconsin to Cincinnati, Ohio on August 16, local time, and was forced to land back in Milwaukee. According to reports, Vance was on a Boeing 737 that day. The cause of the emergency seemed to be that the sealed hatch failed, but the plane was able to land normally, and there were no accidents.

A week ago, while former US President and Republican presidential candidate Trump was on his way to Bozeman, Montana, the plane had a mechanical failure and was temporarily diverted, and eventually landed in Billings near Bozeman.

[Hedge funds turned bullish on yen after arbitrage trading bursts]

After sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market caused a popular Japanese yen transaction to burst out, the attitude of hedge funds about this currency took a 180-degree turn, becoming bullish for the first time since 2021. According to the latest data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) covering the week up to August 13, speculative transactions due to the upward trend in the yen became a net majority. According to CFTC data, leveraged funds hold 86 contracts that bet on the appreciation of the yen, worth about 7 million US dollars.