Intelligent Finances & Economics learns that gtja released research reports indicating that the growth rate of social retail and wholesale rose on a month-on-month basis, while that of social retail above the quota decreased on a year-on-year basis. The competitive pattern of vertical O2O companies has significantly improved as internet dragons shift their focus from pursuing scale to placing a higher value on profitability. In the future, service industries are expected to see both price and volume rise. Education hits bottom and reverses, recommending undervalued stocks which have the potential for sustainable performance. The retail trade at a fair price while expanding overseas maintains high prosperity. Tourism continues to be hot, and attention should be paid to travel. Against the backdrop of the rise of national style in the consumption market, the long-term logic of gold jewelry is still worth looking forward to.

GTJA's main opinions include:

In July 2024, the growth rate of social retail and wholesale increased by 2.7% year-on-year (2.0% in June) and 0.7% month-on-month, excluding autos, the growth rate was 3.6% year-on-year (3.0% in June) and 0.6% month-on-month, while that of social retail above the quota decreased by 0.1% year-on-year (0.6% in June) and increased by 0.5% month-on-month according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Gold jewelry sales are under pressure, and the growth rate of dining is decreasing month-on-month. Necessary items are preferred to optional items. Basic vs. optional: gold, silver and jewelry (down 10.4%/down 6.7%) , cosmetics (down 6.1%/up 8.5%), cultural and office supplies (down 2.4%/up 6.1%); food (up 9.9%/down 0.9%), tobacco and alcohol (down 0.1%/down 5.3%), drinks (up 6.1%/up 4.4%); home appliances (down 2.4%/up 5.2%), furniture (down 1.1%/down 2.2%). The suction effect of 618 has weakened, cosmetics, and home appliances have improved month-on-month. With the high gold price, consumers still hold a wait-and-see attitude towards the price of gold, and the year-on-year decline in gold jewelry sales has further expanded. Goods vs. services: in July, the year-on-year growth rate of commodity retail was +2.7%/+1.2pct, and that of commodity retail above the quota was 0.0%/+1.0pct. The revenue of the dining industry increased by 3.0% month-on-month but decreased by 2.4% year-on-year, and that of dining industry above the quota decreased by 0.7% month-on-month and 4.7% year-on-year. The growth rate of physical goods increased on a month-on-month basis in July, while the growth rate of dining industry revenue decreased. The quota below both were superior to those above.

The cumulative growth rate of online physical retail has slightly decreased, while the penetration rate of e-commerce has continued to rise on a month-on-month basis. According to the retail formats, from January to July, among the retail enterprises above the quota, the growth rate of retail sales of convenience stores, specialty stores and supermarkets increased by 5.2%, 4.5% and 2.0% respectively on a year-on-year basis, while the retail sales of department stores and brand exclusive stores decreased by 3.8% and 1.6% respectively. Online vs. offline: (1) the cumulative growth rate of online physical commodity sales increased month-on-month: from January to July, the national online retail sales reached 8378.4 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.5%. Among them, the online retail sales of physical commodities reached 7009.3 billion yuan, an increase of 8.7%, and the growth rate decreased by 0.1pct on a month-on-month basis. Among the online retail sales of physical commodities, the sales of food, clothing and daily necessities increased by 19.7%, 6.3% and 7.5% respectively. (2) The penetration rate of e-commerce has increased month-on-month: in July, the online sales of physical goods accounted for 25.6% of the total retail sales of consumer goods, an increase of 0.3pct month-on-month.