Q2 降本对冲原材料涨价，Q3 仍有降本空间。24Q2 铝成本环比平均上涨10%+，我们预计对应原材料成本增加3%，对应影响利润近6000 万元，而公司通过内部降本对冲，盈利维持稳定。Q3 结构件行业降价3-5%，但6 月起铝价开始向下，当前电解铝价格1.9 万元/吨左右震荡，较5 月底高点已下跌10%，已跌至24Q1 低点，可降价影响，预计Q3盈利水平仍可维持10%+。长期看，二线厂商已微利，进一步降价空间有限，且公司资本开支放缓，后续产能利用率提升，盈利水平可维持。24H1 results are in line with expectations. The company's 24H1 revenue was 5.4 billion yuan, up 11%; net profit to mother was 0.65 billion yuan, up 27%; gross profit margin was 23.1%, with a net sales margin of 11.9%, up 1.4pct; of these, 24Q2 revenue was 2.9 billion yuan, +13%/+17%, net profit to mother 0.34 billion yuan, +27%/+10% year-on-month, gross profit margin 23.8%, +1.5pct month-on-month. The company previously predicted 24H1 net profit of 0.61-0.68 billion yuan. The performance was in the median forecast, in line with market expectations.
Revenue from 24H1 lithium battery structural components also increased by 12%, and the share was stable. Revenue from 24H1 lithium battery structural components was 5.24 billion yuan, an increase of 11.6%, of which overseas revenue was 0.3 billion yuan, an increase of 11.5%, accounting for 5.4% of revenue.
Industry demand recovered in August, and the company's shipments increased. Q3 revenue is expected to increase 10-15% month-on-month, and annual revenue is 12-13 billion yuan, up about 15% year-on-year. Prices have stabilized in 25 years, and revenue is expected to resume 20% growth.
Q2 cost cuts hedge against rising raw material prices, and there is still room for cost reduction in Q3. 24Q2 aluminum costs increased by an average of 10% + month-on-month. We expect corresponding raw material costs to increase by 3%, which will affect profits by nearly 60 million yuan, while the company's profits remain stable through internal cost reduction hedging. Prices in the Q3 structural parts industry have been reduced by 3-5%, but aluminum prices have begun to decline since June. Currently, the price of electrolytic aluminum has fluctuated around 0.019 million yuan/ton. It has already fallen 10% from the high point at the end of May and has fallen to a low of 24Q1, which can be affected by price cuts. It is expected that the Q3 profit level will still be maintained at 10% +. In the long run, second-tier manufacturers have made marginal profits. There is limited room for further price cuts, and the company's capital expenditure is slowing down, subsequent capacity utilization increases, and profit levels can be maintained.
Expense control was good, and operating cash flow increased in Q2. The cost for the 24H1 period was 0.5 billion yuan, up 7.6%, the cost rate was 9%, and the same decrease was 0.3 pct. Among them, the 24Q2 period cost was 0.27 billion yuan, +6%/+19% compared to the same period, and the cost rate was 9.2%, and -0.6/+0.1 pct compared to the same period. 24H1's net operating cash flow was 1.9 billion yuan, up 235%. Among them, 24Q2 net operating cash flow was 1.69 billion yuan, up 185%/646% year-on-year, and inventory at the end of 24Q2 was 0.9 billion yuan, up 10% from the end of Q1.
Profit forecast and investment rating: Considering the impact of the company's product price reduction, we lowered the company's net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 1.38/1.66/2.02 billion yuan (originally estimated 1.45/1.83/2.24 billion yuan), +15%/20%/21%, corresponding PE was 14/12/10 times. Considering that the company is the leader in structural components, we gave it 20 times PE for 24 years, corresponding to a target price of 102 yuan, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Electric vehicle sales fell short of expectations, and industry competition intensified.
