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Jackson Hole 路线图:一文读懂“下周最关键的一场会议”

Jackson Hole Roadmap: Understand "The Most Important Meeting Next Week" in One Article

wallstreetcn ·  12:01

Chairman Powell of the Federal Reserve and Governor Bailey of the Bank of England will give speeches one after another. The media will also interview officials of all sizes about policy prospects. Goldman Sachs believes that Powell will send signals of "rate cut confidence" and "data dependence".

Next week, central bankers and economists from around the world will gather for the annual Jackson Hole Global Central Bank conference, which is one of the most important global central bank events. The market will closely monitor to determine the trend of monetary policy for the remainder of the year. In terms of product structure, 100-300 billion yuan products recorded operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively, with the company's overall sales volume totaling 18,000 kiloliters, a +28.10% YoY growth rate, indicating significant growth.

Goldman Sachs detailed the agenda for this year's annual meeting in its report this week. The most anticipated speech is that of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell, who will deliver the keynote speech at 10:00 AM EDT on August 23 (Friday, 22:00 Beijing time). The speech will be broadcasted live, but there will be no Q&A afterwards. In addition, following each speech, there will be a Q&A session.

The Bank of England has also announced that Governor Bailey will deliver a lunchtime speech at 15:00 EDT on Friday, and European Central Bank Chief Economist Lane will participate in a summary panel discussion on Saturday. In addition to Chairman Powell's keynote speech, there will be a Q&A session after each speech.

Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may receive signals of 'lowering interest rate confidence' and 'data dependence', expecting that Powell's information and subsequent interviews will be similar to what we have heard in the past few weeks, namely that the Fed is now close to lowering interest rates, but the degree of ease will depend on the upcoming data.

The theme of this year's annual meeting is 'Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy', which is an important topic in the recent hiking cycle with many possible research areas. Although the conference theme typically determines the direction of the policymaker group discussion, Powell's keynote speech focuses more on current policy issues.

When will the schedule be released? What are the main events?

As for the detailed schedule:

The complete schedule will be released at 8 PM EST on Thursday, August 22nd. The conference will take place in Wyoming and all times are Mountain Time (MT), which is two hours behind Eastern Time and 14 hours behind Beijing Time.

There will be one keynote speech on Friday morning, as well as two fixed segments, lunchtime speeches on Friday afternoon and the closing summary panel discussion on Saturday. Each year's schedule varies slightly, but the group discussions typically include central bankers from around the world, officials from international organizations such as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) or the Bank for International Settlements (BIS).

So far, the confirmed attendees include Powell, Bailey, and Lane.

Powell will deliver an economic outlook speech via webcast, which is typically regarded as the keynote speech. Bailey will deliver a lunchtime speech, while Lane from the European Central Bank will participate in the summary panel discussion on Saturday, potentially joining a group discussion with central bankers from emerging markets and leaders of international organizations. Although Bank of Japan Governor Kuroda participated in the group discussion last year, he has been called to attend the parliamentary meeting on August 23rd to discuss recent interest rate decisions, so he may not attend.

In addition to a series of speeches, it is worth paying attention to media interviews, especially those related to recent policies. These interviews typically begin when people start arriving on Thursday and continue throughout Friday. Some Fed officials will participate, as well as central bankers and scholars from international central banks.

What is the theme of the conference? What signals will central bank officials convey?

More importantly, what message will policymakers convey? Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may receive signals of 'lowering interest rate confidence' and 'data dependence', expecting that Powell's information and subsequent interviews will be similar to what we have heard in the past few weeks, namely that the Fed is now close to lowering interest rates, but the degree of ease will depend on the upcoming data.

Goldman Sachs economists expect the Fed to lower interest rates by 25 basis points for three consecutive months from September, and believe that the market was too ahead of itself in pricing in a 50 basis point rate cut at the next meeting after weak July employment data.

The market may hear more comments like those made in early August, indicating that the Fed does not respond to single data points, and that key data including personal consumption expenditure (PCE) and August non-farm payroll reports will be released shortly after the Jackson Hole Symposium. The importance of waiting for these data to come out before deciding on the extent of easing may be emphasized.

At the same time, we may also hear some assurances that if the economy undergoes a more serious downturn, the Fed is prepared to act quickly. Overall, this information should allow risk sentiment to continue to recover, with slightly higher yields following last week's positive activities and inflation data.

In addition, key information includes the discussion of this year's conference theme and what we can expect from policymakers. Goldman Sachs pointed out that the market may receive signals of 'lowering interest rate confidence' and 'data dependence', expecting that Powell's information and subsequent interviews will be similar to what we have heard in the past few weeks, namely that the Fed is now close to lowering interest rates, but the degree of ease will depend on the upcoming data.

In addition, the discussion on the conference theme is a key information, according to Goldman Sachs.

The theme of this year's conference is "Reassessing the Effectiveness and Transmission Mechanism of Monetary Policy". The transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy have been an important topic in recent interest rate cycles, with many possible areas of study. Some recent studies have focused on the impact of different mortgage market structures, inequality, increasing public debt, the popularity of online banking business, and special considerations for emerging markets.

Usually, the conference theme determines the direction of discussion for the group of policy makers, but the Fed chairman's keynote speech focuses more on current policy issues. Powell recently said in his speech at Jackson Hole, "It doesn't have to have anything to do with the theme of the conference," he pointed out that he would typically try to give a speech focused on the current economic outlook and provide some higher-level points, such as what we've learned recently.

Editor/ping

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