Goldman Sachs has lowered the possibility of the United States falling into an economic recession next year from 25% to 20%, and if the non-farm payroll in early September is good, it will be further lowered to 15%.
After the release of US retail sales and initial jobless claims data this week, Goldman Sachs lowered the risk of a US economic recession.
Goldman Sachs economist Jan Hatzius lowered the likelihood of a recession next year from 25% to 20% in a report to clients on Saturday.
Hatzius further noted that if the August non-farm payrolls report, scheduled for release on September 6, looks pretty good, we may lower the possibility of a recession to 15%, a level that has persisted for nearly a year.
US July retail sales posted the biggest increase since early 2023, while US government data showed the lowest number of initial jobless claims since early July. A series of data showing the resilience of the US economy has pushed US stocks to their best week of the year, prompting investors to buy into the market after the recent plunge.
Regarding the prospect of interest rate cuts, Goldman Sachs economists said they are more confident that the Fed will cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its policy meeting in September, but the risk of a 50 basis point cut remains possible if there is another unexpected decline in August non-farm payrolls.
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