AI 浪潮不止，AI 服务器需求强劲。2024 年上半年，云计算收入同比增长 60%，其中云服务商收入占比 47%，较去年同期提升 5 个百分点；AI 服务器占整体服务器营收比重提升至 43%，收入同比增长超230%。2024 年第二季度单季公司云计算收入占总体收入达 55%，云计算收入同比增长超 70%，环比增长超 30%；AI 服务器收入同比增长超 270%，环比增长超 60%，占整体服务器营收比重提升为 46%。Incident: On August 13, the company released its 2024 semi-annual report. 2024H1 achieved operating income of 266.091 billion yuan, yoy +28.69%; net profit to mother of 8.739 billion yuan, yoy +22.04%.
Among them, Q2 achieved revenue of 147.403 billion yuan in a single quarter, yoy +46.11%; net profit to mother of 4.554 billion yuan, yoy +12.93%. Q2 After deducting non-net profit for a single quarter after deducting the full impact of exchange gains and losses, total profit for the second quarter increased 25% year-on-year.
Comment:
The wave of AI continues, and demand for AI servers is strong. In the first half of 2024, cloud computing revenue increased 60% year over year, with cloud service providers accounting for 47% of revenue, an increase of 5 percentage points over the same period last year; AI servers accounted for 43% of overall server revenue, and revenue increased by more than 230% year over year. In the second quarter of 2024, the company's cloud computing revenue accounted for 55% of total revenue. Cloud computing revenue increased by more than 70% year over year and more than 30% month over month; AI server revenue increased by more than 270% year on year and more than 60% month on month, accounting for 46% of total server revenue.
In response to the demand for servers and boards caused by AI, the company has prepared sufficient production capacity, and order visibility is high. In 2024, North American cloud service vendors scrambled to release big models, and demand for computing power continued to rise. In addition to servers, the company is also expanding advanced cooling and other businesses.
Revenue from the communications and mobile network equipment business is rising steadily, and 800G is expected to contribute significantly in the second half of the year. Benefiting from data center AI and network upgrades, the business sector achieved high year-on-year unit growth in the first half of the year, up 20% year-on-year in the second quarter, and 400G and 800G high-speed switch revenue related to AI servers increased 70% year over year. Overall 400/800G high-speed switch revenue increased 30% per year in the first half of 2024. With its advantages in intelligent manufacturing and response speed, the company's market share continues to increase, boosting related businesses to achieve rapid growth.
Among them, 800G high-speed switches have begun to be shipped one after another, and the company expects to start increasing volume and contribute significant revenue in the second half of 2024.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's 2024E/2025E/2026E net profit to be 25.242/32.218/37.192 billion yuan, yoy +20%/+28%/+15%, respectively. The company is a core individual stock in the computing power industry chain. We are optimistic about the company's development prospects in this field and maintain a “buy” rating for the company.
Risk factors: Risk of AI development falling short of expectations; risk of macroeconomic fluctuations; risk of short-term stock price fluctuations.
