Thanks to consecutive days of inflation and retail data, plus Walmart's financial report, the US stock market seems to have emerged from the shadow of 'recession trading.' However, some analysts are worried that the full picture of the US economy doesn't seem as sunny or positive.
With the strengthening of Walmart's financial report and official retail data exceeding expectations in the past few days, the US stock market, which had been in the doldrums of 'recession trading,' has surged vigorously. Among them, the S&P 500 index, which rose for seven consecutive days, not only marked the largest weekly increase of the year, but was also only 2% away from an all-time high....
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Just as stock market bulls are celebrating the return of the bull market, some analysts express concerns that the underlying logic driving this round of stock market gains still needs further observation due to the resilience of consumer data. Or more accurately, they don't believe that the US economic data is as bright and positive as it appears.
The reason the US stock market is paying strong attention to consumer data is simple: consumption accounts for two-thirds of US economic growth and directly determines the spirit of the economy.
According to John Zolidis, founder of Quo Vadis Capital, a market research company focused on studying the consumer market, Walmart's customers are not buying in bulk, but rather necessary items and looking for discounts. Therefore, this financial report is not completely positive and does not represent a signal that 'everything is good.'
Zolidis says that from the comments of a large number of companies and economic data, the US is still in an environment of sustained weak consumption capacity. This is also what he hopes to see from retail financial reports.
During the continuous decline that began in early July, many US-listed companies gave another scenario. Airbnb and Expedia, which deal with homestays and travel bookings, stated that consumers are becoming increasingly hesitant about summer travel. Cruise, airfare, and hotel bookings have seen a significant decline, and food manufacturers such as Hershey and Kraft Heinz have lowered their revenue forecasts for this year. Chain restaurants such as KFC and Papa John's have also reported that Americans are eating out less.
McDonald's, which has recently been the focus of attention for US stock market investors, introduced the American version of the 'poor man's set meal' -- a $5 discount meal. Then, almost every large chain restaurant followed suit with its own '$5 meal.'
In response to these reports flooding in, Michael Lantzberg, CEO of private wealth management firm Landsberg Bennett, believes that McDonald's has improved its declining revenue by launching a $5 discount meal. And Walmart has always claimed to have the most affordable prices and has reduced prices on many items. In his view, this has already indicated that US companies are seeing a decline in consumer spending power.
Therefore, a series of retail financial reports will continue to be the focus of attention. Next week, the second-largest US retail department store chain, Target, and Macy's will release their financial reports, followed by Best Buy, Dollar General, and other companies.
Michael Beck, an analyst at investment bank D.A. Davidson, explains that retailers are more likely to lower their guidance for the second half of this year rather than raise it. Therefore, before the release of financial reports, he lowered his earnings forecasts for numerous retailers in the second quarter and second half of the year, including Target and the newly crowned 'Buffett concept stock' Ulta Beauty.
In Beck's view, Walmart's success is more due to its unique advantages -- its focus on discounts and the implementation of e-commerce, which are helping the company seize market share and attract higher-income consumers.
Facing the frequent headwinds in the consumer market, Fed Chair Powell is set to speak at the Jackson Hole Symposium later this week, while many await his updated attitude on interest rate cuts.
Editor/ping