By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But many of us dare to dream of bigger returns, and build a portfolio ourselves. Just take a look at Madison Square Garden Sports Corp. (NYSE:MSGS), which is up 25%, over three years, soundly beating the market return of 15% (not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 13% in the last year.
Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.
In his essay The Superinvestors of Graham-and-Doddsville Warren Buffett described how share prices do not always rationally reflect the value of a business. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.
Madison Square Garden Sports became profitable within the last three years. So we would expect a higher share price over the period.
The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We know that Madison Square Garden Sports has improved its bottom line lately, but is it going to grow revenue? This free report showing analyst revenue forecasts should help you figure out if the EPS growth can be sustained.
What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?
We'd be remiss not to mention the difference between Madison Square Garden Sports' total shareholder return (TSR) and its share price return. Arguably the TSR is a more complete return calculation because it accounts for the value of dividends (as if they were reinvested), along with the hypothetical value of any discounted capital that have been offered to shareholders. We note that Madison Square Garden Sports' TSR, at 31% is higher than its share price return of 25%. When you consider it hasn't been paying a dividend, this data suggests shareholders have benefitted from a spin-off, or had the opportunity to acquire attractively priced shares in a discounted capital raising.
A Different Perspective
Madison Square Garden Sports shareholders are up 13% for the year. Unfortunately this falls short of the market return. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 3% per year over five year. It is possible that returns will improve along with the business fundamentals. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Madison Square Garden Sports better, we need to consider many other factors. Even so, be aware that Madison Square Garden Sports is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those can't be ignored...
We will like Madison Square Garden Sports better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on American exchanges.
Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.