Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu, Long Yue, Li Xiaoyin.
Data confirms confidence in a soft landing, S&P and Nasdaq have risen for seven consecutive days, while monkeypox concept stocks have soared, and the chip stock index has risen nearly 10% for the week, with Nvidia up nearly 19% for over a year. The weekly U.S. bond yield and dollar both fell, while the price of gold rose and broke through $2500 for three consecutive weeks. On Friday, the yen rose more than 1%, offshore renminbi jumped 220 points and rose for the week, and crude oil fell 3% and turned lower for the week. The pound rose 1.4% for the week, hitting a more than one-month high. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Data confirms confidence in a soft landing, S&P and Nasdaq have risen for seven consecutive days, while monkeypox concept stocks have soared, and the chip stock index has risen nearly 10%, with Nvidia up nearly 19% for over a year. The weekly U.S. bond yield and dollar both fell, while the price of gold rose and broke through $2500 for three consecutive weeks. On Friday, the yen rose more than 1%, offshore renminbi jumped 220 points and rose for the week, and crude oil fell 3% and turned lower for the week. The pound rose 1.4% for the week, hitting a more than one-month high.
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According to analysis, economic data pushed up market expectations of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve on Friday. Investors believe more strongly that a recession can be avoided and that the Fed will begin to cut rates in September. Today's market is a continuation of the recovery and a calming of earlier concerns about a recession. After the data was released, U.S. stocks rose across the board, U.S. bond yields fell across the board, and a weak dollar pushed up precious metals. Spot gold broke through the $2500 mark for the first time, reaching a new record high. Next week, the focus will turn to the minutes of the Fed's July meeting and Fed Chair Powell's speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Symposium, as investors seek more clues on rate cuts. In addition, CFTC data shows that hedge funds' positions in the yen have turned net long for the first time since 2021, and the yen rose more than 1% on Friday.
During the week, the U.S. stock market surged, marking its best performance so far this year, with the Nasdaq leading the way, up over 5% and rising 12% from its low point last Monday.
![](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238569883649280387577.png)
Jobless claims, CPI, and retail sales data are all ‘soft’, and rate cut expectations have returned to the level before the job data was released. (It is expected that rate cuts will be less than 200 basis points by the end of 2025.)
The three major U.S. stock indexes had their best single-week performance since 2024, and the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 9.8% for the week.
The three major U.S. stock indexes opened lower and closed higher, up 0.2% collectively. They had their best single-week performance so far this year, while the China concept stock index rose nearly 2% on Friday, significantly outperforming the market. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose about 9.8% for the week.
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both rose for seven consecutive days, their best single-week performance since October last year. The Dow had its best single-week gain since December last year: the S&P 500 closed up 0.20% at 5554.25 points on Friday, up 3.93% for the week. The Dow closed up 0.24%, or 96.70 points, at 17631.72 points, up 2.94% for the week. The Nasdaq closed up 0.21% at 17631.72 points, up 5.29% for the week. The Nasdaq 100 was up 0.09% and rose 5.38% for the week. The Nasdaq Technology Market Value Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of technology stocks in the Nasdaq 100, rose 0.09% for the week, up 6.44%. The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.30% and was up 2.93% for the week. The VIX fell 2.82% to 14.80, down 27.34% for the week, its lowest level in more than three weeks since July 23, falling below 15.
![During the week, the U.S. stock market surged, marking its best performance so far this year, with the Nasdaq leading the way, up over 5% and rising 12% from its low point last Monday.](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238575909516023826031.png)
Most U.S. industry ETFs closed up. Regional bank ETFs and bank ETFs were up about 1.5% each. The financial industry ETF was up 0.74%, the utilities ETF was up 0.45%, and global technology stocks were up 0.37%. However, the global aviation industry ETF fell 0.39%.
![](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238575785234298256357.png)
Most of the 11 sectors of the S&P 500 rose on Friday. On Friday, financials were up 0.62%, information technology/tech, telecommunications rose more than 0.2%, consumer discretionary rose more than 0.1%, real estate, energy, and the industrial sector fell less than 0.2%.
This week, the technology sector rose by 7.51%, consumer discretionary rose by 5.21%, financial sector rose by 3.21%, raw materials sector rose by 2.23%, industrial sector rose by 2.12%, healthcare sector rose by 1.92%, daily consumer goods sector rose by 1.60%, telecommunications sector rose by 1%, public utilities sector rose by 0.97%, energy sector rose by 0.85%, and real estate sector fell by 0.01%.
"Tech Seven Sisters" saw mixed performances. Nvidia rose 1.4%, with a weekly rise of 18.93%. It fell 8.75%, 4.13%, 5.12%, and 2.35% in the previous four weeks. Google A rose 1.03%, with a weekly drop of 0.43%. It fell 2.9%, 4%, 6%, 0.2%, and 1.79% in the previous five weeks. Tesla rose 0.92%, with a weekly rise of 8.06%. It fell 1.31%, 3.64%, 8.11%, 5.52%, and 3.69% in the previous five weeks. Apple rose 0.59%, with a weekly rise of 4.66%. Amazon, on the other hand, fell 0.3%, with a rebound of 6.06% this week after six consecutive weeks of decline. Microsoft fell 0.61%, with a rebound of 3.25% this week after five consecutive weeks of decline. Meta fell 1.84%, with a weekly rise of 1.86%. It rose 4.82% and 6.07% in the previous two weeks.
Nvidia rose for five consecutive days and its weekly gain reached nearly 19%, leading the tech stocks. It achieved the best performance in over a year and ended four weeks of consecutive decline. Among the "Tech Seven Sisters", only Google saw a weekly decline, while Apple and Microsoft gained about 4% and 3%, respectively.
Chip stocks mostly fell. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell 0.06%, nearly erasing its 1.4% intraday drop and rising 9.78% this week. The SOXX ETF fell 0.21%, while the Nvidia two-times long ETF rose 2.6%. On Semiconductor fell 0.05%, AMD rose 0.81%, Qualcomm fell 0.67%, ASML ADR fell 1.03%, KLA Corp fell 1.99%, Arm Holdings fell 0.11%, Broadcom fell 0.25%, Applied Materials fell 1.86%, and Taiwan Semiconductor ADR rose 0.33%. Intel rose 1.4%, and S&P lowered its rating on Intel to BBB+ with a negative outlook. Micron Technology rose 0.97%.
AI concept stocks rose and fell. Super Micro Computer, known as the "AI demon stock," rose 0.34%. Dell Technologies rose 0.99%, Oracle rose 0.39%, CrowdStrike rose 0.79%, Palantir rose 2.75%, Snowflake rose 0.78%, SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, rose 0.4%. However, BullFrog AI fell 10.45%, C3.ai fell 0.66%, BigBear.ai fell 2.33%, and Serve Robotics, an AI robot delivery company owned by Nvidia, fell 2.45%.
China concept stocks outperformed the US market. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.92% on Friday, up 2.78% this week. In the ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.64% and rose 2.17% this week, ending the previous four weeks of decline. The Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 2.12% and rose 2.43% this week, continuing last week's rebound of 2.81%.
Among the popular China concept stocks, JD.com rose 8.48%, Li Auto rose about 6.93%, Alibaba rose 4.58%, Bilibili rose 3.36%, Baidu rose 3.23%, Nio rose 3.13%, Pinduoduo rose 2.9%, New Oriental rose 2.45%, XPeng rose 1.46%, Ke Holdings rose 1.16%, and Tencent ADR rose 1.05%.
Smallpox epidemic concept stocks generally rose. In the US market, GeoVax Labs (GOVX) rose 110.75%, Emergent BioSolutions (EBS) rose 24.02%, and SIGA Technologies (SIGA) rose 9.04%. In Europe, Bavarian Nordic (BAVA.DC), a Danish pharmaceutical company, rose 17.83%, while Orphan Biovitrum AB (SOBI.SS), a Swedish biopharmaceutical and biotechnology company, rose 1.84%.
Spot gold hit a new record high, driving up gold and silver mining stocks. Avino Silver & Gold rose 11.93%, Harmony Gold Mining rose more than 5.1%, and B2Gold, Gold Fields, Barrick Gold, Gold Mining ETF GDX, and Coeur Mining all rose more than 3.8% at most.
In addition, Walmart, the largest retailer in the United States, hit a new high for two consecutive days and rose 8% this week, its best performance in four years, which has strongly boosted the performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
Most European stock indexes rose, and the STOXX 50 index in the euro zone rose more than 3% this week.
Although the pan-European Stoxx 600 index is still below its level at the beginning of this month, this week's stable rise has erased the recent sharp decline, with the STOXX 50 index in the euro zone rising more than 3%, the best weekly performance since the end of January.
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 0.31% and rose 2.46% this week. The STOXX 50 index in the euro zone rose 0.68% and rose 3.53% this week. Automotive stocks rose 1.06% on Friday, while oil and gas stocks fell 0.15% this week.
European stock indexes except for the UK FTSE fell, with the German DAX up 0.77% for the week up 3.38%. The French CAC rose 0.35% and rose 2.49% for the week. The FTSE 100 fell 0.43% and rose 1.75% for the week. Italy's stock index rose 2.20% and rose 3.96% for the week (trading on Friday only, and closed on Thursday).
![](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/1723857433558288094096.png)
![](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238574482475507291854.png)
On Friday, US bond yields fell, with the 10-year benchmark yield falling below 3.90%.
On Friday, US bond yields fell, with the two-year short-term yield, which is more sensitive to interest rates, dropping more than 7 basis points at one point, and the 10-year benchmark yield dropping more than 6 basis points and falling below 3.90%, with a total weekly decline of about 5 basis points:
US bonds: At the end of the day, the two-year yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, fell 4.53 basis points to 4.0560%, up 0.29 basis points for the week, and refreshed the week's low of 3.8685% when the US CPI data was released on August 14, showing an overall U-turn. The 10-year benchmark Treasury yield fell 2.67 basis points to 3.8864%, down 5.15 basis points for the week. It refreshed the week's high of 3.9647% on August 12 and then fluctuated downward. When the US CPI data was released on August 14, it refreshed the week's low of 3.8031%, and rose above 3.94% after the US retail sales data was released on August 15.
Driven by US CPI data and retail sales data, German and British bond yields rebounded in a 'V' shape, showing significant gains this week: the 10-year German bonnyielde dropped by 1.5 basis points and rose 2.2 basis points this week. The two-year German bond yields fell 2.6 basis points, up 4.6 basis points for the week. The 10-year Italian Treasury yield rose 0.1 basis point and fell 1.0 basis point this week. The two-year British bond yields rose 2.7 basis points, up 2.7 basis points for the week. The 10-year British Treasury yield rose 0.3 basis points and fell 1.9 basis points this week.
![](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238573652496015758408.png)
This week, the US bond yield curve weakened slightly (+1bps) on the short end, but fell 7bps on the long end. The obvious change is the rise of yields after the release of US CPI data, due to the cooling of rate cut expectations.
The US dollar index fell for three consecutive weeks, the longest since March. Bitcoin rebounded to close to 0.06 million USD.
The US dollar index fell 0.7% this week and fell for three consecutive weeks, the longest since March. The yen rose more than 1% against the dollar on Friday, but fell 0.7% this week. Offshore RMB rose 220 points on Friday and rose for the whole week. The pound rose by 1.4% this week, hitting its highest level in more than a month.
USD: The DXY index, which measures the US dollar against six major currencies, fell 0.63%, to 102.403, showing a smooth downward trend throughout the day. After the release of the US inflation expectations survey report at 22:00 Beijing time, the decline narrowed slightly. It fell by 0.71% this week, approaching the bottom of this week of 102.270 points, which was reached after the release of US CPI inflation data on August 14.
Bloomberg's US dollar index fell 0.50% to 1238.47 points, down 0.60% for the week, and refreshed this week's low to 1238.28 points near the US stock market close.
![Bloomberg's US dollar index fell to a five-month low.](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238573014845238266771.png)
Most non-US currencies rose. The euro rose 0.51% against the US dollar and rose 1.05% this week, close to the high of this week set after the release of US CPI data on August 14. The pound rose 0.69% against the US dollar, hitting a weekly high of 1.2946 this week, up 1.48% for the week. The USD/CHF fell 0.75% and rose 0.12% for the week.
JPY: The yen rose 1.12% against the US dollar, to 147.61 yen, breaking through the 148 mark, but fell 0.69% this week. After the release of US retail sales data on August 15, it fell to 149.39. The euro fell 0.64% against the yen, to 162.80 yen, rose about 1.70% this week; the pound fell 0.48% against the yen, to 191.075 yen, rose 2.17% this week.
Offshore RMB: Offshore RMB (CNH) rose 165 points at the end of the day against the US dollar, to 7.1631 yuan, and trading was generally between 7.1838-7.1604 yuan. It rose more than 0.1% this week and showed an overall trend of rising and falling, and rose to 7.1309 yuan when the US CPI inflation data was released on August 14.
Most cryptocurrencies fell. Bitcoin, the largest market cap leader, rose 4.12% to 59580.00 USD, down 2.31% for the week, and traded between 62200.00-56295.00 USD during the week. Ethereum, the second-largest, rose 3.17% to 2622.00 USD, up 0.77% for the week, and traded between 2519.50-2782.50 USD during the week.
![Bitcoin rebounded to close to 0.06 million USD, almost unchanged at the end of the week.](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238572773866623856929.png)
Weak demand dragged down oil prices, with US crude oil falling more than 3% in intraday trading on Friday.
Truce negotiations in Gaza and weak global oil demand dragged down oil prices, with US crude oil falling more than 3% in intraday trading on Friday and turning downward for the week. Brent crude oil rose slightly this week.
WTI crude oil futures for September fell from yesterday's $78.16 per barrel to $76.65 per barrel, down over 1.93% or $1.51, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.25%. US oil maintained its downward trend throughout the day, with European stocks hitting a daily low and falling nearly 3.4% and falling below $76. Brent crude oil futures for October fell from yesterday's $81.04 per barrel to $79.68 per barrel, down nearly 1.68% or $1.36, with a cumulative weekly increase of 0.03%. Brent crude oil maintained its downward trend throughout the day, hitting a daily low during European stocks and falling nearly 3%, falling below $79.
Natural gas: US natural gas futures for September fell 3.37% to $2.1230 per million British thermal units. It fell by 0.93% this week.
On the news front, according to Xinhua News Agency, the governments of Qatar, the United States and Egypt issued a joint statement on the 16th, stating that the new round of Gaza ceasefire negotiations held in the Qatari capital, Doha, was "constructive" and the atmosphere was positive. Senior government officials from the three countries will hold talks in the Egyptian capital, Cairo, before next weekend with the goal of finalizing the agreement. According to CCTV news, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in Gaza has basically ended, but the Israeli army can re-enter the Gaza Strip after "obtaining new intelligence".
During post-market trading, COMEX December gold futures rose 2.13% to $2545.60 per ounce, setting a new historical high. The highest price during post-market trading hit $2548.30. It rose by 2.94% this week, with significant increases on Monday and Friday and oscillations during other times. Spot gold continued to rise throughout the day, hitting a daily high at 04:12 Beijing time, rising more than 2.1% to $2509.75 per ounce, again hitting a historical high, and finally up 2.08% to $2508.01 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 3.19% this week, with significant increases on Monday and Friday and oscillations from Tuesday to Thursday.
![On the news front, the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) data showed that in the week of August 13th, speculation in gold hit a four-week high.](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238572178753575425530.png)
London's industrial basic metals are mixed. The "Copper Doctor" fell by $33 to $9116 per ton, with a cumulative increase of nearly 2.82% this week. London Zinc fell by $20, and London Tin rose by $65 this week, with a cumulative increase of over 1.91%. London Aluminium rose by $2, London Nickel rose by $54 this week, with a cumulative increase of 1.38%, and London Cobalt fell by more than 4.2% on Friday this week and fell more than 6% this week.
The gold price soared to a new historical high, breaking through the $2500 mark for the first time.
US oil: WTI September crude oil futures fell from yesterday's $78.16 per barrel to $76.65 per barrel, down over 1.93% or $1.51, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.25%. US oil maintained its downward trend throughout the day, with European stocks hitting a daily low and falling nearly 3.4% and falling below $76. Brent crude oil futures for October fell from yesterday's $81.04 per barrel to $79.68 per barrel, down nearly 1.68% or $1.36, with a cumulative weekly increase of 0.03%. Brent crude oil maintained its downward trend throughout the day, hitting a daily low during European stocks and falling nearly 3%, falling below $79.
On the news front, US natural gas futures fell 3.37% to $2.1230 per million British thermal units during post-market trading this week, with a cumulative weekly decline of 0.93%.
Gold: During post-market trading, COMEX December gold futures rose 2.13% to $2545.60 per ounce, setting a new historical high. The highest price during post-market trading hit $2548.30. It rose by 2.94% this week, with significant increases on Monday and Friday and oscillations during other times. Spot gold continued to rise throughout the day, hitting a daily high at 04:12 Beijing time, rising more than 2.1% to $2509.75 per ounce, again hitting a historical high, and finally up 2.08% to $2508.01 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 3.19% this week, with significant increases on Monday and Friday and oscillations from Tuesday to Thursday.
Silver: COMEX September silver futures rose 2.13% to $29.030 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 5.23% this week and significant increases on Thursday and Friday. Spot silver continued to fall slightly earlier, falling over 1.1% during European stocks and approaching the whole number of 28 US dollars. It continued to rise afterwards. At the end of the day, it hit a daily high, rising nearly 2.2% and approaching the whole number of 29 US dollars. It finally rose 2.20% to $28.9793 per ounce, with a cumulative increase of 5.54% this week and significant increases on Thursday and Friday.
![Gold prices soared to a new historical high, breaking through the $2500 mark for the first time.](https://postimg.futunn.com/news-editor-imgs/20240817/public/17238572000656145535763.png)
Editor / jayden