基金持仓下降至历史低位，剧烈杀估值期已过，估值触底。截止到2024Q2 末，已没有主动基金重仓持股公司，达到历史最少水平，环比减少14 个。公司PE(Forward)自2023 年进入剧烈杀估值期，从2024 年5 月至今，千味央厨 PE(Forward)从22x 下降至15x 左右，估值达到上市以来最低位，高估值风险释放。Key points of investment
Yum China launched a new K-SA product, with marginal improvements on the B-side. In July 2024, KFC launched a new KSA product, a deep-fried pancake base pizza. It is expected that in the second half of the year, Chef Senmiyang will still have new products ready to go on the market, and the pace of new sales will accelerate. Meanwhile, Yum China maintained its target of 1,500-1,700 new stores in 2024, and completed 779 net stores in the first half of the year, with a net increase of 635/192 stores respectively. Thanks to the expansion of store openings, Yum's 2024Q2 revenue continued to grow under a high base (24Q2 Yum revenue +4% year-on-year in terms of constant exchange rate), and West Express was resilient enough. Facing a complex external environment, Yum will launch innovative products in the second half of the year to increase order volume to boost the company's same-store performance. In addition to Yum, Chef Senwei Yang is also speeding up the upgrading of new customers such as Tustin and Haidilao. Thanks to the accelerated pace of upgrading, the B-side will usher in marginal improvements.
The small B end concentrates on the rice and noodle category and actively expands the range of prepared dishes. The company continues to promote new products on the small B-side. This year, the layout in the rice and noodle category focuses on breaking through the full range of morning group meals, fully cooked egg tarts, and breaking the circle with spring rolls. Recently, it has launched new golden crispy products, suitable for banquets, group meals, etc. Pre-prepared dishes have accelerated the expansion of categories, and launched channels and scenarios that match categories such as chicken chops, meat skewers, salted egg yolk, lychee-shaped shrimp balls, etc. In fiscal year 2023, the company sold 11 new product series over 10 million, accounting for 70% of new product sales. The company has strong ability to promote new products, and the products continue to drive the company's growth.
Fund holdings have fallen to an all-time low. The valuation period has passed, and the valuation has bottomed out. By the end of 2024Q2, there were no active fund holding companies with heavy holdings, reaching the lowest level in history, with a decrease of 14 over the previous month. The company PE (Forward) entered a sharp valuation period in 2023. Since May 2024, Qianweiyang Chef PE (Forward) has dropped from 22x to around 15x. The valuation reached its lowest level since listing, and the risk of high valuation has been released.
The chain rate of the restaurant industry continues to rise, and the long-term logic of the catering supply chain to help reduce costs and increase efficiency remains unchanged.
Currently, external demand is relatively weak, but leading catering companies are resilient enough, and there is strong certainty that the restaurant chain rate will increase over a long period of time. According to Chen Zhi's big data, the number of domestic restaurants dropped from 8.78 million at the end of 2019 to 7.703 million at the end of 2023. At the same time, Meituan data shows that the domestic restaurant chain rate increased from 13% to 21% in 2019-2023. Chain companies are more resilient to risks. Catering supply chain companies can meet the standardization requirements of catering chains, and the long-term logic of helping downstream customers reduce costs and increase efficiency remains unchanged.
Profit forecasting and investment rating: The company focuses on serving B-side catering customers, and is optimistic that the company will continue to grow under strong R&D and customer advantage two-wheel drive. Considering the overall downturn in the restaurant sector, we slightly lowered our profit forecast for 2024-2026. We expect the company's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 20.8/23.2/26.3 (2.19/2.61/3.09 billion yuan), with a year-on-year growth rate of +9.6%/11.5%/13.2%, and an estimated net profit of 100 million yuan 0.16/0.19/0.22 billion yuan (the previous forecast was 0.18/0.22/0.26 billion yuan), +17% /+ compared to the same period 21%/+16%, EPS was 1.59/1.92/2.23 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE was 16x, 13x, and 11x, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Food safety risk, raw material price fluctuation risk, risk of increased market competition, risk of unstable performance due to high revenue share of major customers.
