There wouldn't be many who think Eagle Materials Inc.'s (NYSE:EXP) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 17.2x is worth a mention when the median P/E in the United States is similar at about 18x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/E without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.
With its earnings growth in positive territory compared to the declining earnings of most other companies, Eagle Materials has been doing quite well of late. One possibility is that the P/E is moderate because investors think the company's earnings will be less resilient moving forward. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?
In order to justify its P/E ratio, Eagle Materials would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.
If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 7.8%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 83% in aggregate from three years ago, partly thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 11% during the coming year according to the eleven analysts following the company. With the market predicted to deliver 14% growth , the company is positioned for a weaker earnings result.
In light of this, it's curious that Eagle Materials' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.
Our examination of Eagle Materials' analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its P/E as much as we would have predicted. When we see a weak earnings outlook with slower than market growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. This places shareholders' investments at risk and potential investors in danger of paying an unnecessary premium.
It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 1 warning sign with Eagle Materials, and understanding should be part of your investment process.
You might be able to find a better investment than Eagle Materials. If you want a selection of possible candidates, check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.