After experiencing two weeks of extremely volatile trading, the price of gold soared to a historic high. Inflation is continuing to slow down, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next month, officially opening a period of monetary easing.
On August 16, China Securities News (Editor: Niuzhanlin) reported that due to weakened US dollar, expectations of a US Federal Reserve interest rate cut in September, and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, the spot price of gold broke through the $2,500 per ounce mark on Friday, once again hitting an all-time high.
During Friday's US trading session, the spot price of gold briefly broke through the $2,500 mark, but the latest increase has since narrowed; US gold futures rose 1.1% to $2,520.8 per ounce.
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Due to the increasing optimism among investors about the monetary easing policies and large-scale gold purchases by central banks around the world, the price of gold has risen more than 20% this year. In addition, geopolitical risks are on the rise, including tensions in the Middle East and conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, and the demand for gold as a safe haven asset has also increased.
New York independent metal trader Tai Wong said that after experiencing two weeks of extremely volatile trading, the price of gold soared to a historic high, and the bulls finally achieved their wish. "After breaking through the $2,500 mark, the price of gold may soon fall. Investors' attention will shift to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at Jackson Hole in a week, where he will provide more detailed policy guidance for the upcoming interest rate cuts."
From Thursday to Saturday next week, the annual Jackson Hole Symposium will be held at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park, Wyoming, USA. In the midst of global economic recession concerns and central banks around the world at a turning point in policy, this conference is highly anticipated.
The US producer price index (PPI) and consumer price index (CPI) for July, released this week, showed that inflation is continuing to slow down, which may prompt the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by 25 basis points next month, officially opening a period of monetary easing.
Bob Haberkorn, senior market strategist at RJO Futures, believes that disappointing data in the US real estate market has strengthened expectations of further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is also a reason for the rise in gold prices. "Weak real estate data is another indicator of an impending economic recession. The Federal Reserve will cut interest rates soon and by a larger margin than previously anticipated."
Geopolitically, negotiations for a Gaza ceasefire were suspended after meeting in Doha on Friday, with negotiators scheduled to meet again next week seeking to reach an agreement to end the conflict between Israel and Hamas and release remaining hostages. In a joint statement, the United States, Qatar, and Egypt said that a new proposal had been put forward on the basis of the consensus reached in the past week, which would bridge the differences between the two sides in a way that facilitates the rapid implementation of the agreement.
Israel and mediators began intermittent talks on Thursday to end the Gaza war. Hamas did not participate directly in the talks but received briefings on progress. Currently, the deadlock between the two sides is that Israel insists that peace can only be achieved by destroying Hamas, while Hamas says it will only accept a permanent ceasefire, not a temporary one. Senior Hamas official Hussain Badran said Israel's ongoing actions are an obstacle to the ceasefire process.
In addition, according to sources, the Iranian government is still debating internally about the possibility of launching a large-scale attack on Israel, while also considering the possibility of secret intelligence operations. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah does not want to take action without Iran's consent but also does not seek a larger-scale conflict with Israel.