A well-known investor stated that the potential printing of money by the Federal Reserve will lead to stagnation, and after the "misery", gold and csi commodity equity index will once again become real trading opportunities.
Mark Spitznagel, Chief Investment Officer and founder of Universa, believes that the bubble will eventually burst and after an epic collapse, gold and commodities will "once again become true trading opportunities".
In an interview, Spitznagel said: "There is nothing different this time, and anyone who says different hasn't really paid attention, the only difference is the size of this bubble burst is greater than anything we've seen before."
Universa is a 16 billion dollar hedge fund that specializes in mitigating risks from "black swan" events.
Spitznagel, a former trader and a protege of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the 2007 bestseller "The Black Swan".
Spitznagel believes that signs of recent economic cooling and signs of the stock market peaking should not be ignored, including rising unemployment, increasingly wary consumers, and increasing market volatility.
"This is a typical tightening process, peak process, and inversion process, followed by a recession. If we haven't fallen into a recession by the end of this year, I'll be surprised," he said.
Spitznagel is concerned that excessive debt in the global economy and the Fed's "printing money" behavior will lead to a period of low growth and high inflation, i.e. stagflation.
He believes that when the economy and markets collapse, the Fed will be forced to take "heroic" action to save the economy and markets, but it will only be a "pyrrhic victory". Lowering interest rates, restarting quantitative easing, or implementing new, untested stimulus measures will not prevent consumers and investors from suffering major losses. And when the Fed's efforts begin to take effect and help stabilize the economy, stagflation will become a problem.
"It looks like a recovery, but there are limits to what printing money can do, and once it goes beyond that, it weakens economic growth," Spitznagel said. "As Friedman wrote in the late 1960s, once printing money and inflation become expected, all printing money will eventually lead to stagflation."
"Printing money has never created wealth and never will. Therefore, after the next epic collapse, it is expected that gold and commodities will once again become a true trading opportunity."
However, while Spitznagel is indeed concerned that a recession is looming, the stock market bubble is about to burst, and stagflation is a long-term risk, he also provided a qualification for his long-term pessimism.
"I don't think we're going to face the Great Depression. I'm not the kind of person who prophesies the end of the world. I just think we're not going to like the measures we have to take to save this artificial, highly manipulated bubble we're all living in."
Finally, Spitznagel warned that bubbles typically end at the top of extreme optimism, and he believes that the last stage of our current bubble still has room to rise. For investors, this means that shorting the market is not a good idea.
"I want to clarify my position here, I think the market will have a final crazy rise, which will squeeze those who bet against it."