On the evening of the 16th Beijing time, the U.S. stock market opened slightly lower before rebounding. The three major U.S. stock indexes will all have gains this week. U.S. new home construction in July fell sharply. Market focus shifts to Fed Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole central bank meeting next week, as well as the minutes of the Fed meeting.

As of press time, the Dow Jones fell 0.12%; Nasdaq rose 0.08%; S&P 500 index fell 0.03%.

As of the close on Thursday, the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq both recorded their sixth consecutive trading day of gains, with gains of more than 3% and 5%, respectively, for the week, and both are expected to record their largest weekly gains since November. The Dow rose more than 2% this week, making it the best week of the year.

Retail sales data released on Thursday much exceeded economists' expectations, and the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits fell last week, both proving that investors' concerns about an economic downturn have been exaggerated. Earlier this month, concerns about an economic slowdown caused U.S. stocks to be sold off.

Before these statistical data were released, inflation data released earlier this week strengthened people's confidence in a soft landing of the economy. These data points also support expectations that the Fed will start cutting interest rates at its policy meeting in September.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, said:"Investors have been looking for more reasons to continue on the road to recovery. With recent economic and employment data better than expected, investors are now stepping up their pace."

Slowing inflation but strong retail spending in the United States has dramatically improved market sentiment. These data helped the market sentiment change from concerns about an economic downturn triggered by weak U.S. employment reports in early August to confidence that the economy could continue to grow in the face of easing price pressures. Mild inflation data further strengthened market expectations that the Fed will cut interest rates in September.

David Chao, global market strategist for Invesco Asia Pacific (excluding Japan), said:"Overall, the data show that inflation is continuing to weaken and the Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September." But he also said that the July inflation report reduced the possibility of a sharp rate cut.

Salman Ahmed, global head of macro and strategic asset allocation at Fidelity International, said:"We believe economic growth is slowing and inflation is also easing, and the Fed will begin to cut interest rates, but there will be no panic, as there was two or three weeks ago. We still believe that we will see two to three rate cuts, probably two, unless we see a sustained rise in unemployment rates in our previous employment report."

Sotirios Nakos, multi-asset portfolio manager at Aviva Investors, warns that this soft landing scenario may not last. He doubts that the market will continue to fluctuate with each new piece of economic data.

The Fed's policy direction remains the focus of the market.

Fed Chairman Powell will speak on economic outlook at the Jackson Hole economic symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed at 10 a.m. Eastern Time on Friday, August 23. The theme of this meeting is:"Reassessing the effectiveness and transmission of monetary policy."

The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is one of the longest-running central bank conferences in the world. Participants from 70 countries gather annually to share different perspectives and experiences. It is definitely the "annual feast" of central banks around the world. The Jackson Hole Economic Symposium is hosted by the Kansas City Fed and is one of the most watched conferences other than the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting of the Federal Reserve.

This year's Jackson Hole conference is held at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Grand Teton National Park from August 22 to 24.

With the Fed expected to cut rates soon, it is widely anticipated that the next meeting on September 17-18 will begin easing. However, there is much disagreement about the magnitude of the rate cut. Although most economists expect the Fed to cut interest rates by 25 basis points in September, some insiders from Wall Street banks such as Citigroup and JPMorgan predict a larger rate cut of 50 basis points.

Wells Fargo believes that after the Fed cuts interest rates, the U.S. stock market will see its biggest rise in 30 years.

Christopher, global investment strategist at Wells Fargo, said:"The stock market is about to see a rise like never before in 30 years. He pointed out that the current market is similar to 1995, when the stock market was booming and the S&P 500 index reached 77 historic highs.

Christopher said investors may face a similar environment, as inflation is falling, the economy is not collapsing, and the Department of Commerce estimates second-quarter GDP growth of 2.8% year-on-year.

Christopher said in an interview on Thursday that the Fed is "well-positioned if it can be proactive enough."

He suggested that central bank officials would cut interest rates by 50 basis points in September and then cut them several times before the end of the year, adding:"We still have a good chance of achieving a soft landing."

On Friday's economic front, the US Department of Commerce reported that new home construction in July fell sharply, indicating fragile housing demand as mortgage rates remain high.

Data showed that the annualized monthly rate of new home construction in the United States fell 6.8% to 1.238 million units in July, seasonally adjusted, below the market's widely expected 1.33 million units. The start-up rate was down 16% from the same period last year. A survey released earlier on Thursday showed that US home builders' confidence fell for the fourth consecutive month in August.

Focus stocks

• Mixed gains for growth tech with Tesla up more than 1%, Amazon and Google up nearly 1%.

• Most of China concept stocks are up with JD.com rising more than 5% and Alibaba up more than 4%.

• $Alibaba (BABA.US)$Rose more than 4% in pre-market and will complete dual primary listing at the end of August.

• $JD.com (JD.US)$Rose more than 5%, Q2 results exceeded expectations, Citigroup maintained a buy rating.

• $Tesla (TSLA.US)$Up more than 1%, according to reports, Tesla Cybertruck is the best-selling car in July 2024 in the U.S. with a price over $100,000.

• Variants of monkeypox have led to an increase in cases, vaccine developers$Emergent BioSolutions (EBS.US)$up nearly 25%, $GeoVax Labs (GOVX.US)$up more than 20%.

• The first space satellite stock in the U.S.$AST SpaceMobile (ASTS.US)$Up more than 9%, AST announced that its first batch of five commercial satellites will enter orbit in early September.

• $Coinbase (COIN.US)$Up more than 3%, hedge funds continued to bet on bitcoin ETF, with 701 funds entering the market in Q2.

• The spot gold price has once broke through 2500 US dollars. $Barrick Gold (GOLD.US)$ The TOPIX index rose more than 2%.

• Biopharmaceutical Company$Cingulate (CING.US)$Up more than doubled, the company's treatment for ADHD drugs received a European patent.

Editor/ping