海外收入高增，对冲国内压力。从主营业务来看，2024 上半年公司外销收入约7.9 亿元，同比增长约49%，内销收入约21.1 亿元，同比下降约10%。国内收入具体来看，新能源业务同比下降约19%，但公司积极进取，非新能源业务呈现不同幅度增长，其中重要基础设施收入同比增长约105%，发电及供电收入同比增长约67%，新基建收入同比增长约83%。Description of the event
Jinpan Technology announced its 2024 semi-annual report: during the reporting period, the company's revenue was about 2.92 billion yuan, up about 1% year on year, net profit to mother was about 0.22 billion yuan, up about 16% year on year, and net profit after deducting non-return to mother was about 0.21 billion yuan, up about 13% year on year.
Incident reviews
Overseas revenue has risen sharply to hedge against domestic pressure. Looking at the main business, in the first half of 2024, the company's export revenue was about 0.79 billion yuan, up about 49% year on year, and domestic sales revenue was about 2.11 billion yuan, down about 10% year on year. Looking specifically at domestic revenue, the new energy business declined by about 19% year on year, but the company was aggressive. The non-new energy business showed varying degrees of growth. Among them, revenue from important infrastructure increased by about 105% year on year, revenue from power generation and electricity supply increased by about 67% year on year, and revenue from new infrastructure increased by about 83% year on year.
There are plenty of orders on hand, and two-wheel drive is being developed. As of the end of June 2024, the company's on-hand orders were about 6.56 billion yuan, up about 30% year on year. Among them, domestic sales orders were about 3.71 billion yuan, down about 8% year on year, and export orders were about 2.85 billion yuan, up about 180% year on year. In the future, the company will continue to develop two-wheel drive, strengthen domestic market expansion efforts, and on the other hand, dig deeper into overseas market potential and enhance global competitiveness.
Promote production capacity construction to achieve a global layout. The company's transformer production in 2023 is about 49.84 millionKVA, and the 2024Q1 sales volume is about 7.18 millionKva. The company's export orders from January to June 2024 grew rapidly, speeding up the global production capacity layout. As of the disclosure date of the interim report on August 10, 2024, the company has expanded production capacity in Mexico and is ready to expand production. At the same time, Europe has completed the layout of its factory in Poland. It is expected that production capacity will be ready in Poland in the fourth quarter of 2024, laying the foundation for further market expansion.
Investment advice
We are optimistic about the future medium- to long-term development of Jinpan Technology. The logic is 1) the current new energy consumption problems may be solved through grid construction and energy storage configuration; 2) the company's transformer and energy storage business will directly benefit from industry development; 3) the company upholds a global strategy and develops overseas business rapidly. We expect Jinpan Technology's revenue for 2024-2026 to be 9/11.9/14.4 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 0.78/1.1/1.41 billion yuan, respectively. According to the closing market value on August 13, 2024, the corresponding PE is 21/15/12 times, respectively, maintaining the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Downstream demand falls short of expectations, increased risk of industry competition, risk of rapid price increases for upstream raw materials, risk of company management and operation risk, and risk of overseas business progress falling short of expectations.
