燃油两轮：内外销均呈现高景气，>250CC 摩托车销量登顶行业第一燃油两轮：H1 收入32 亿元，同比+42%，销量15 万辆，同比+56%，均价2.1 万元，同比-9%。其中，H1 两轮内销收入14.46 亿元，同比增长38.25%，内销量6.8 万台，同比+42%，均价同比-3%，>250CC 摩托车销量登顶行业第一。H1 两轮外销收入18.02 亿元，同比+45%，销量8.58 万台，同比+69%，均价同比-14%，均价下降预计系产品结构变动。Incident: The company released 24H1 results and achieved revenue of 7.529 billion yuan in the first half of the year, +15.73%; net profit to mother was 0.709 billion yuan, +28.49% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.687 billion yuan, +32.05% year over year. Looking at a single quarter, 24Q2 achieved revenue of 4.468 billion yuan, +23.20% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.431 billion yuan, +26.35% year over year; net profit without return to mother was 0.415 billion yuan, +28.02% year over year.
Four-wheelers: fundamentals reached an inflection point, and shipments improved year-on-year
Four-wheelers: H1 earned 3.5 billion yuan, -1.55% year over year, sold 0.08 million units, +3% year over year, average price 0.043 million yuan, -4% year over year. It is expected that Q2 overseas warehousing will come to an end, and the shipping side will improve year on year. Against the backdrop of a downturn in the industry, a steady development trend will be maintained. All-terrain vehicle exports account for 71.75% of domestic exports. With a low base in the second half of the year, all-terrain vehicles are expected to continue the Q2 trend.
Two fuel wheels: Both domestic and foreign sales are booming. >250CC motorcycle sales are at the top of the industry. The two fuel wheels: H1 revenue is 3.2 billion yuan, +42% year over year, sales volume 0.15 million vehicles, +56% year over year, average price 0.021 million yuan, and -9% year over year. Among them, H1's two rounds of domestic sales revenue was 1.446 billion yuan, up 38.25% year on year. Domestic sales volume was 0.068 million units, +42% year over year, average price -3% year over year, and >250CC motorcycle sales topped the industry. H1's two-round export revenue was 1.802 billion yuan, +45% year over year, sales volume 0.0858 million units, +69% year over year, average price -14% year over year. The average price decline is expected to be due to changes in product structure.
Electric two wheels: the growth curve is gradually clear
Electric two-wheeled vehicles: 0.0204 million H1 extremely nuclear electric vehicles, revenue 0.116 billion yuan. Currently, extreme core brands are focusing on core markets such as Jiangsu and Guangdong in the domestic market, and the channel has grown by 81.03%. Actively expand international channels. Our products cover more than 30 countries and regions including Europe, Asia and South America, and the channel growth is 181.25%.
Q2 Net profit margin improved year on month
The 24H1 gross profit margin is 31.5%, or -1 pct year on year. The decline is mainly due to two rounds of increase. Q2 gross profit margin is 30.8%, year-on-year -0.5pct, Q2 sales/management/R&D/finance expenses ratio -1.8/+0.3/+1.4pct year on year, total +0.5pct. Q2 overseas four-wheelers end up in storage, promotion expenses have decreased, and sales expenses have decreased significantly. It is expected that the year-on-year decrease in exchange earnings will lead to an increase in financial expenses. Furthermore, income tax was reduced by about 0.04 billion yuan year over year. Taken together, the net profit margin on H1 sales was 9.85%, +1pct year on year, and the net profit margin on Q2 was 10.09%, +0.17pct year on year. Operating cash flow has improved significantly. H1's operating cash flow was 1.49 billion yuan, or +91% year over year, of which 1.39 billion yuan in the Q2 quarter was +111% year over year, mainly due to an increase in sales scale.
Profit forecasting and investment advice
In view of the company's Q2 performance exceeding expectations, the dual-wheel drive logic continues to be implemented, and the growth curve of the extreme core electric brand has been raised. The net profit forecast for 2024-2026 is 1.33, 1.639, and 1.945 billion yuan (previous values were 1.23, 1.48, 1.72 billion yuan), +32%, +23%, and the corresponding EPS is 8.78, 10.83, and 12.85 yuan, corresponding to 2024-2026 PE 15x, 13x, 11x, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Macroeconomic fluctuations, adverse changes in trade policies, changes in exchange rates, intensification of market competition
