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十宗罪:新手炒股常犯的可怕错误

The Ten Deadly Sins: Horrible Mistakes Newbies Make in Stock Trading

小散躺赢 ·  Dec 19, 2019 18:34  · 发现

Charlie Munger, one of the smartest people in the world, tells us:

Always thinking the other way around.

For investment, it is:If you want to make money, you have to think about what will make you lose money.

And then don't do those things.

Today, we will carry this idea to the end and count in detail the major mistakes often made by those novice speculators in the stock market.

I have been investing for more than 5 years, and I have made a lot of mistakes and seen a lot of people make mistakes.

Although there are all kinds of mistakes, generally speaking, they can be divided into the following categories, which we will talk about one by one.

1 error 1: excessive marking

This is a thing that newcomers to the stock market often do.

Computers, mobile phones and tablets are filled with all kinds of market software. As long as it is trading time, always open, staring at the fluctuation of the time-sharing line.

The mood also fluctuated up and down with that curve, a rocket launch was excited to go to heaven, a small diving could not help but pat the table and scold his mother.

Sometimes I get caught up in extremely obscene thoughts, thinking that it goes up and up, and it really goes up, and it feels like I can control the rise and fall of the stock price.

Including myself, when I first started investing in stocks, I was in a similar state because I was in a bull market.

The most ridiculous thing about this kind of behavior is that the rise and fall of stocks has nothing to do with whether you look at the market or not, except for a very small number of high-frequency traders, most people actually do not need to look at the market all the time.

Not only useless but also waste a good time, the mood is also extremely affected, the most terrible thing is that we often make irrational decisions because of intraday fluctuations.

The ratio of stock speculation is not the length of trading time.But the quality of information, the depth of research and thinking, and so on.

So turn off the market software and embrace the whole world.

Error 2: over-research

Novice investors always want to grasp the law behind the operation of the stock market.

In-depth research is necessary before buying a stock. But if you pay too much attention to details and invest too much time and energy, you will fall intoThe "diminishing marginal utility" of the study.

I have a friend who knows all about his listed company. Every subject in the financial report is stingy, and the management pays close attention to every move.

However, in fact, these information did not bring him more benefits, but wasted a lot of time and mood in all kinds of unimportant information.

3 error 3: lack of research

Contrary to the above point, many people seem to look at the name of the stock market and buy it without even knowing what the company does.

Trump was elected to win in Sichuan University, Quantum Communications won the prize and bought Quantum Hi-Tech.

There are also many novices who like to follow suit and hype some concepts:

Xiongan New area buys Xiongan concept stocks when it becomes popular, new energy stocks buy new energy stocks when new energy gets hot, and 5G buys after 5G becomes popular.

Due to the lack of understanding of the industrial chain and the company, I don't know the specific value of the company, and I don't know when to buy and when to sell. In the end, we can only see the rise and catch up, become the catcher, or be shaken out and fall in the darkness before dawn.

Error 4: no summary, no review

I never look for a reason from myself when I am wrong.

The weakness of human nature is to distort one's own memory.

Beginners always forget the reasons for buying and selling at the beginning. When they go up, they feel that they are the god of the stock, while when they fall, they blame the government and the management of the company.

Never think about why it goes up, why it goes down, what is right and what is wrong with the reasons for buying and selling, and how to improve it.

Therefore, Li Shengjun advises everyone to get into the habit of writing a fixed investment diary, a trading diary and a regular review.

5 error 5: frequent transactions

In the short term, the stock market is a more effective market, short-term trading is often difficult to obtain income, while frequent trading will lose a lot of transaction costs.

Many people worked hard for a long time and ended up working for brokerages and tax bureaus.

I always meet people who think it's easy to earn 1% a day and will be rich in a few years. Little do they realize that this is completely impossible.

Buffett's annualized income is only 20%. You earn 1% a day, and soon your assets will surpass that of Buffett.

Error 6: always compare with others, always pursue high returns and ignore risks

At the beginning of stock speculation, it is usually a bull market. At this time, almost everyone around us is speculating in stocks and making money.

You can often hear how many times an uneducated grandmother bought a stock, where an aunt got the news, and how many millions she earned. It seems that everyone around her is a stock god, but your stock does not rise.

At such times, it is always easy to get out of balance, thinking that others don't seem to be better than themselves, why do they easily earn so much more than themselves, and then begin to increase leverage to catch up and fall.

And often when you lose your mind and do so, you will not be able to make money, and then the mentality will be more unbalanced, more irrational operation, vicious circle.

Many students will also question me and say, if you buy these funds, you might as well buy those funds, and your investment level is not as good as that. When you ask them why, it will always be, your rate of return is too low.

In fact, many high yields in the short term are unsustainable. The stock market is always seven losses, two draws and one profit. Everyone makes money in a bull market, and we don't know who is swimming naked until the tide goes out.

Only long-term (ten years may not be enough) to maintain profitability can reflect a person's level of investment. Buffett's annualized compound income over the years is only 20%, and no one can beat it.

So keep your mind at easeGive up the illusion of getting rich overnight. If you maintain a stable income of 8% to 12% a year and outperform ordinary wealth management products, you will already beat most people.Happiness comes from contentment and ends with comparison.

7 error 7: superstition of inside information and various investment gods

This mistake is made by many beginners and even some old leeks.

Books about Buffett's thoughts are all over the house. Every day, I went to various news websites and stock bars to find out the news, racking my brains to get some secrets about the rise and fall of the stock market.

The mistake of this kind of behavior is to always want to find a shortcut once and for all, to find a quick and easy way to make money.

But unfortunately, this method is impossible, investment ultimately depends on your long-term accumulated vision and ability, including business vision, trading strategy, emotional management.

However, none of these can be formed overnight, all through one or two rounds of bulls and bears and long-term efforts.

The market is complex and there is no simple way to make a lot of money lying around once and for all.

Those who claim to have this method and charge high fees must be liars.

I also said that before you think for yourself, everything others say is wrong, including what I said.

8 error 8: not doing a good job in asset allocation and cash flow management

This is the most serious mistake a novice can make.

The biggest fear of investing is having to sell when it should be held.

Full position of a stock, resulting in a black swan, the stock price fell 80%

All the assets were bet on stocks, so they couldn't stand the volatility to sell, and then the bull market came.

Did not leave enough cash, as a result, need money, had to sell stocks with good prospects

The stock price rebounded sharply after being overleveraged and unwound in the collapse.

……

Investment is nothing more than three things, asset allocation, stock selection, timing, and for beginners, asset allocation is the top priority.

Because asset allocation determines more than 90% of portfolio volatility.

It seems to keep the volatility within its limits before it can wait until dawn and a bull market.

9 error 9: can't control your emotions and make irrational decisions

This is mainly due to the fact that we did not do a good job at all. If the asset allocation is done well, the mentality will be much better.

Of course, it may be that you have bought stocks that you do not understand, or that you are a person who is averse to volatility and risk.

If you see it right and don't do it right because of emotional problems, you will have a heart that really wants to die.

The essence of investment is a process of constantly learning to get along with yourself. There are no shortcuts to this road.

You can only practice constantly and learn to get along with yourself.

At the same time, allocate your assets according to the first principle of "getting a good night's sleep".

Error 10: all kinds of cognitive errors and irrationality

People are not completely rational animals. They are easily affected by emotions and have a lot of cognitive biases.

So investment is an inhumane thing.

The rise of behavioral finance in recent years is precisely because of these weaknesses of human nature, such as loss aversion, psychological account, short-term effect, herding effect, anchoring effect, overreaction.

Let's not talk about it in detail here. Interested students can buy a book on behavioral finance.

What I particularly want to say here is that, in fact, the theory of behavioral finance interprets human behavior a little too much. In the past two years, many studies have shown thatBehavioral finance has a bias of "finding bias".

In fact, most of the time, our behavior is more rational, otherwise the market will not always be more efficient.

After seeing that I have made so many mistakes, many students will feel that it is too difficult to invest, but they dare not invest.

In fact, this is not necessary, as long as adhere to the correct investment concept and method, the stock market is actually not so terrible.

We always make mistakes, and the important thing is not to make big mistakes.

That's why you need to learn from your own and others' mistakes, and you need asset allocation, margin of safety, and trading discipline to protect yourself.

Finally, let's talk about my own mistakes. The most impressive mistake I made was the circuit breaker at the beginning of 2016.

At that time, stocks were at a high of 3700 points, because they did not come out in the atmosphere just after the bull market, and the various rescue measures of the country made me forget the horrors of the stock market crash.

Then I quickly experienced a circuit breaker. I thought the stock I bought was very good and the price was reasonable. I could ignore the market and leave the big deal to my son.

As a result, there was no stop loss, and the total assets of the stock market fell 26% in three days. Although it was still profitable that year, it wasted a year.

And I am lucky, in case the stock I bought is not good and does not rise back, it will cause irreparable losses.

This experience led me to sum up four lessons:

Don't put too much weight on one or two stocks.

It is difficult for individual stocks to break away from the market and get out of the independent market. We must not think that the stocks we have chosen are very good and ignore the fluctuations in the market.

The valuation of the market is very important and is the core factor of the rise and fall of stocks. The national bailout is at best a strong disturbing factor, not the most fundamental thing. Decisions must be based on the most fundamental factors. No matter how strong ZF is, it is impossible to fight against the whole market and cannot violate economic laws.

For most stocks and positions, resolutely stop losses.

Don't buy things that you don't understand and can't sleep. If you can't choose good stocks, it's also a good choice to allocate some index funds.

After saying so many mistakes, if you think you are talking about you, then congratulations, it is not too late to change.

If you think it's funny, congratulations. You've grown into a brilliant leek flower.

Edit / emily

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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