3 points to focus on in the afternoon ~ Up more than 1,000 yen based on the rise in US stocks and the depreciation of the yen.

Fisco Japan · Aug 16 11:18

16日の後場の取引では以下の3つのポイントに注目したい。

・日経平均は5日続伸、米株高と円安を材料に1000円超の上げ幅に

・ドル・円は軟調、日本株は大幅続伸も

・値上り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■日経平均は5日続伸、米株高と円安を材料に1000円超の上げ幅に

日経平均は大幅高で5日続伸。前日比1073.78円高（＋2.92％）の37800.42円（出来高概算9億8000万株）で前場の取引を終えている。

15日の米国株式市場は続伸。ダウ平均は554.67ドル高（＋1.39％）の40563.06ドル、ナスダックは401.90ポイント高（＋2.34％）の17594.50、S&P500は88.01ポイント高（＋1.61％）の5543.22で取引を終了した。小売売上高や週次失業保険者数を受けて消費や労働市場の悪化警戒感が後退し、寄り付き後、上昇。ソフトランディング期待が強まり、相場は終日買いが先行した。終盤にかけて、上げ幅を拡大し終了。

米国株の大幅高や、為替の円安ドル高などを材料に、東京市場は買い優勢で取引を開始した。日経平均は8月2日以来となる37000円台を回復した後は、上げ幅をじりじりと拡大し、前日比の上げ幅は1000円超となった。200日移動平均線を上回り、37930円水準で位置する25日移動平均線手前まで上昇。プライム市場の9割近い銘柄が上昇する全面高の展開となった。

日経平均採用銘柄では、米ハイテク株が上昇したことから、ルネサスエレクトロニクス＜6723＞、ディスコ＜6146＞、アドバンテスト＜6857＞、SUMCO＜3436＞など半導体関連銘柄が上昇したほか、フジクラ＜5803＞、古河電工＜5801＞など電線株も買われた。このほか、日立＜6501＞、TDK＜6762＞、太陽誘電＜6976＞、村田製作所＜6981＞が上昇した。

一方、NXホールディングス＜9147＞、バンダイナムコHD＜7832＞、明治ホールディングス＜2269＞、東宝＜9602＞、日野自動車＜7205＞などが下落。日経平均採用銘柄で下落したのは、15銘柄に留まった。

全業種が上昇したなか、石油・石炭製品、電気機器、非鉄金属、鉱業、保険業の上げが目立った。

日経平均VIは26ポイント水準で推移しており、指数が大きく動くことを想定する投資家は減少傾向にある。ボラティリティ低下も本日の大幅高の背景にあるが、大引けで25日移動平均線を上回ることができるか注目だ。25日移動平均線が下向きのため、トレンドが転換するといった意味合いではないが、仮に上回れば7月19日以来となるため、投資家のマインドはより改善しよう。ランチタイムの為替が1ドル148円70銭台と朝方より円安ドル高は一服しており、後場一段高を試すには難しい地合いかもしれないが、日経平均がどの位置で大引けを迎えるか要注目だ。

■ドル・円は軟調、日本株は大幅続伸も

16日午前の東京市場でドル・円は軟調地合いとなり、149円33銭から148円74銭まで値を下げた。日経平均株価の大幅続伸による円売りが先行し、朝方に上昇する場面もあった。ただ、米10年債利回りの低下を受け、ドルは利益確定売りに押された。

ここまでの取引レンジは、ドル・円は148円74銭から149円33銭、ユーロ・円は163円36銭から163円83銭、ユーロ・ドルは1.0971ドルから1.0982ドル。

■後場のチェック銘柄

・シンカ＜149A＞、マリオン＜3494＞など、4銘柄がストップ高

※一時ストップ高（気配値）を含みます

・値上り寄与トップはファーストリテ＜9983＞、同2位は東エレク＜8035＞

■経済指標・要人発言

【経済指標】

・米・7月小売売上高：前月比＋1.0％（予想：+0.4％、6月：－0.2％←0.0％）

・米・7月小売売上高(自動車除く)：前月比＋0.4％（予想：+0.1％、6月：＋0.5％←+0.4％）

・米・先週分新規失業保険申請件数：22.7万件（予想：23.5万件、前回：23.4万件←23.3万件）

・米・失業保険継続受給者数：186.4万人（予想：187.0万人、前回：187.1万人←187.5万人）

【要人発言】

・ムサレム米セントルイス連銀総裁講演（米国経済と金融政策）

「今後数四半期のリセッションを予想しない」

「年内、米国経済1.5％‐2％成長を予想」

「現在は、両方の任務に焦点。リスク均衡」

＜国内＞

・特になし

＜海外＞

・15:00　英・7月小売売上高(自動車燃料含む)（前月比予想：+0.6％、6月：-1.2％）

In the afternoon trading on the 16th, the following three points should be noted:

Nikkei 225 has risen for 5 consecutive days, with an increase of more than 1000 yen, thanks to the rise of US stocks and the depreciation of yen.

The dollar-yen exchange rate is weak, and Japanese stocks have risen significantly.

The top contributors to the rise were First Retail and East Electric.

Nikkei 225 has risen for 5 consecutive days, with an increase of more than 1000 yen, thanks to the rise of US stocks and the depreciation of yen.

The Nikkei average rose significantly and continued to rise for five days. It closed the morning session at 37,800.42 yen, up 1,073.78 yen (+2.92%) from the previous day, with an approximate trading volume of 0.9 billion 80 million shares.

On the 15th, the US stock market continued to rise. The Dow Jones average was 40563.06 yen, up 554.67 yen (+1.39%), the Nasdaq was 17594.50, up 401.90 points (+2.34%), and the S&P500 was 5543.22, up 88.01 points (+1.61%), at the end of trading. After receiving strong retail sales and weekly unemployment insurance claims data, concerns about the deterioration of consumption and the labor market subsided and the market rose from the start. Expectations of a soft landing increased, and buying dominated the market throughout the day. In the final stage, the gains expanded and the market ended higher.

The Tokyo market opened with a buying bias on the back of a significant rise in US stocks and a weakened yen against the dollar. After recovering the 37,000 yen level for the first time since August 2, the Nikkei average gradually expanded its gains and rose by more than 1000 yen compared to the previous day. It rose above its 200-day moving average and approached its 25-day moving average line, which is positioned at the 37,930 yen level. Nearly 90% of the prime market stocks rose, resulting in an overall uptrend. Renesas Electronics (6723), Disco (6146), Advantest (6857), and SUMCO (3436) semiconductor-related stocks rose, as did Fujikura (5803) and Furukawa Electric (5801) wire stocks. Hitachi (6501), TDK (6762), Taiyo Yuden (6976), and Murata Manufacturing (6981) also rose

Among the Nikkei average constituent stocks, semiconductor-related stocks such as Renesas Electronics, Disco, Advantest, and SUMCO rose due to the rise in US high-tech stocks, as did Fujikura and Furukawa Electric wire stocks. Hitachi, TDK, Taiyo Yuden, and Murata Manufacturing also rose.

On the other hand, NX Holdings (9147), Bandai Namco HD (7832), Meiji Holdings (2269), Toho (9602), and Hino Motors (7205) fell. Only 15 of the Nikkei average constituent stocks fell.

All industries rose, with the rise of oil and coal products, electric appliances, nonferrous metals, mining, and insurance industries being particularly noticeable.

Nikkei Average VI is hovering around 26 points, and investors who anticipate that the index will move significantly are decreasing. Low volatility is also behind today's sharp rise, but attention should be paid to whether it can exceed the 25-day moving average at the close. This does not mean that the trend has changed because the 25-day moving average is downward, but if it exceeds it, it will be the first time since July 19, which should improve investors' minds. During lunchtime, the dollar-yen exchange rate is around 148.70 yen per dollar, and the weakening of the yen and the strengthening of the dollar have eased from the morning, but it may be difficult to try for a further increase in the afternoon, so where the Nikkei Average closes is also important to watch.

The dollar-yen exchange rate is weak, and Japanese stocks have risen significantly.

During the morning session of the Tokyo market on the 16th, the dollar-yen exchange rate weakened and fell from 149.33 yen to 148.74 yen. Selling of yen against the background of a sharp rise in the Nikkei Stock Average preceded the rising scene in the morning. However, the dollar was pushed down by profit-taking sales as the yield on US 10-year bonds fell.

So far, the trading range is 148.74-149.33 yen for the dollar-yen exchange rate, 163.36-163.83 yen for the euro-yen exchange rate, and 1.0971-1.0982 dollars for the euro-dollar exchange rate.

Check stocks for the afternoon session

Shinka <149A>, Marion <3494> and 4 other stocks hit the daily limit high.

*Includes temporary stopper (indicated price)

The top contributors to the rise were First Retail and East Electric.

Economic indicators and remarks by important people

[Economic indicators]

US July retail sales: +1.0% from the previous month (expected: +0.4%, June: -0.2% ← 0.0%)

US July retail sales (excluding automobiles): +0.4% from the previous month (expected: +0.1%, June: +0.5% ← +0.4%)

US initial jobless claims for the week ending last week: 0.227 million (expected: 0.235 million, previous week: 0.234 million ← 0.233 million)

US continuing jobless claims: 1.864 million people (expected: 1.87 million people, previous week: 1.871 million people ← 1.875 million people)

[Important Person's Remarks]

Speech by Musalem, St. Louis Fed President (US economy and monetary policy)

"Do not expect a recession in the next few quarters"

"Expect US economy to grow 1.5% -2% this year"

"Currently, focusing on both tasks. Balanced risk"

Not applicable.

15:00 UK July retail sales (including cars and fuels) (expected month-on-month: +0.6%, June: -1.2%)

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

後場に注目すべき3つのポイント～米株高と円安を材料に1000円超の上げ幅に

3 points to focus on in the afternoon ~ Up more than 1,000 yen based on the rise in US stocks and the depreciation of the yen.

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