The Asia-Pacific market is on a roll! The Nikkei 225 index surged 3%. What happened?

来源：证券时报
作者：胡华雄

对经济前景不确定性的担忧缓解，全球股市迎来反弹。

在隔夜美股大涨后，今天上午日韩股市再度强劲上涨，其中日本$日经225 (.N225.JP)$指数盘中涨超1100点，涨幅超3%。

国内市场方面，港股高开，截至发稿，$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$、$恒生科技指数 (800700.HK)$均涨近2%，“京东系”股票全线大涨，其中京东物流盘中涨超14%。A股三大指数小幅高开，随后窄幅震荡。

日韩股市再上涨，日经225指数暴涨1100点

今天上午，日本股市再度大涨，截至发稿，日经225指数涨近1100点，涨幅近3%。

$藤仓 (5803.JP)$、$住友制药 (4506.JP)$领涨，盘中涨幅超过8%，$瑞萨电子 (6723.JP)$、$日立 (6501.JP)$、$三菱电机 (6503.JP)$、 $TDK电子 (6762.JP)$ 等多股盘中涨幅超过5%。

汽车股表现稳健，$日产汽车 (7201.JP)$盘中涨幅超过4%， $丰田汽车 (7203.JP)$ 、 $本田汽车 (7267.JP)$ 盘中涨幅超过3%，后涨幅均有所收窄。

在8月初暴跌后，日经225指数近日持续收复失地，此前7个交易日中有6个交易日上涨，自低点已经涨超20%。

日本 $TOPIX指数 (.TOPIX.JP)$ 今天上午也继续上行，盘中涨幅超过2%。

除了日本股市外，韩国股市上午也大幅上涨，$韩国综合指数 (.KOSPI.KR)$盘中涨幅一度超过2%，已收复8月5日暴跌产生的失地。此前的8月5日，韩国综合指数收盘暴跌8.77%。

缘何大涨？

对于日韩股市持续反弹，市场分析认为，全球经济环境的改善削弱了市场对于未来不确定性的担忧。当地时间8月15日，美国商务部的数据显示，美国7月零售销售月率录得1%，为2023年1月以来最大增幅，预估为0.4%，前值为0。与6月份相比，这是一个强劲的回升，6月份的销售数据被修正为下降0.2%。接受《华尔街日报》调查的经济学家此前预计，7月份零售额将增长0.3%。

大超预期的零售销售数据极大缓解了市场对于美国经济衰退的担忧情绪，同时也降低了投资者对美联储今年大幅降息的预期。

在今天日韩股市上涨之前，隔夜欧美股市集体大涨，其中纳斯达克指数与标准普尔500指数均实现六连涨。截至收盘， $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ 涨1.39%， $纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$ 涨2.34%， $标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$ 涨1.61%，英国富时100指数涨0.8%，法国CAC40指数涨1.23%，德国DAX指数涨1.66%，意大利富时MIB指数涨1%，欧洲斯托克50指数涨1.7%。

机构观点认为，往前看，暂时性冲击逐步消退，叠加内需修复，日本经济重回扩张区间，再通胀进程有望持续。近期数据显示日本经济动能仍然整体向好。7月日本服务业PMI上升4.5pct至53.9，带动综合PMI反弹至荣枯线以上，制造业PMI小幅回落但整体仍高于一季度。从结构来看，内需未来有望成为增长的重要支撑：居民消费或受益于春斗工资谈判涨薪落地；企业投资也可能受益于2023年企业盈利的大幅增长以及企业投资预期的修复。此外，二季度日本名义GDP环比折年增速大幅反弹至7.4%，升至2023年三季度以来新高，反映日本再通胀周期仍在持续，未来有望提振日元和日本相关资产的表现。

恒指、恒生科技指数涨近2%，“京东系”大涨

港股市场上午也高开，截至发稿，恒生指数、恒生科技指数涨幅均超近2%。

港股市场上，“京东系”股票全线大涨， $京东物流 (02618.HK)$ 盘中涨超14%， $京东集团-SW (09618.HK)$ 盘中涨超8%，$京东健康 (06618.HK)$盘中涨超7%。隔夜 $京东 (JD.US)$ 美股大涨超4%。

昨日，京东集团发布2024年二季度及上半年业绩报告。报告显示，二季度京东集团营收 2914亿元，上半年收入达到5514亿元，同比均增长；二季度净利润145亿元，同比增长69% ，净利润率更是首次突破5%，各项数据均大幅超出市场预期。

花旗称京东二季度利润超出预期，并表示若以旧换新政策实施速度快于预期，将成为公司股价催化剂。花旗分析师Alicia Yap等在报告中称，预计京东电子产品和家电产品势头的改善将延续至下半年，维持对公司的买入评级，基于合理的估值和稳健的利润率趋势，公司ADR目标价为41美元。

Jefferies认为，京东二季度非通用会计准则下的盈利超出预期，同时管理层强调了公司在客户群和购买频率上稳健的增长势头，维持对公司的买入评级。Jefferies分析师Thomas Chong等在报告中指出，京东二季度总营收同比增长1.2%，符合预期，将京东ADR目标价从41美元上调至43美元。

编辑/jayden

Source: Securities Times.
Author: Hu Huaxiong. After the overnight surge in US stocks, the Japanese and Korean stock markets surged again this morning, with the Nikkei Index up over 1,100 points, or more than 3%. In the domestic market, Hong Kong stocks opened high and as of press time, all 'JD.com' stocks rose more than 1%, with JD logistics up over 14%. The three major A-share indices opened slightly higher and then fluctuated narrowly. The Japanese and Korean stock markets continued to rise, with the Nikkei 225 index soaring 1,100 points. This morning, the Japanese stock market surged again, with the Nikkei 225 index rising nearly 1,100 points, or nearly 3% as of press time. Fukusho (5803.JP) and Sumitomo Pharmaceuticals (4506.JP) led the gains, rising more than 8% during trading, while Mitsubishi Electric Corp. unsponsored ADR (6503.JP), TDK Electronics (6762.JP), and other stocks rose more than 5% during trading. Auto stocks performed steadily, with Nissan Motor (7201.JP) rising over 4% and Honda Motor (7267.JP) rising over 3% during trading, and their gains have since narrowed. After a plunge in early August, the Nikkei 225 index has been steadily recovering lost ground, rising more than 20% from its low point in six of the past seven trading days.

Concerns about the uncertainty of the economic outlook have eased, and global stock markets have rebounded.

After the overnight surge in US stocks, the Japanese and Korean stock markets surged again this morning, with the Nikkei Index up over 1,100 points, or more than 3%. $Nikkei 225 (.N225.JP)$During trading today, the Nikkei Index rose more than 1,100 points, or more than 3%.

In the domestic market, Hong Kong stocks opened high and as of press time, all 'JD.com' stocks rose more than 1%, with JD logistics up over 14%. The three major A-share indices opened slightly higher and then fluctuated narrowly.$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$,$Hang Seng TECH Index (800700.HK)$All 'JD.COM' stocks increased by nearly 2%, among which 'JD Logistics' increased by more than 14% during the day. The three major A-share indexes opened slightly higher and then fluctuated narrowly.

During trading today, the Nikkei 225 index skyrocketed 1,100 points again.

This morning, the Japanese stock market surged again, with the Nikkei 225 index rising nearly 1,100 points, or nearly 3% as of press time.

$Fujikura (5803.JP)$,$Sumitomo Pharma (4506.JP)$Fukusho (5803.JP) led the gains, rising more than 8% during trading.$Renesas Electronics (6723.JP)$,$Hitachi (6501.JP)$,$Mitsubishi Electric (6503.JP)$and$TDK (6762.JP)$ Several other stocks rose over 5% during trading.

Auto stocks performed steadily, with Nissan Motor (7201.JP) rising over 4% during trading.$Nissan Motor (7201.JP)$During trading, Honda Motor (7267.JP) rose over 3%. $Toyota Motor (7203.JP)$Please use your Futubull account to access the feature.$Honda Motor (7267.JP)$ During trading, both Nissan Motor and Honda Motor's gains have since narrowed.

After a plunge in early August, the Nikkei 225 index has been steadily recovering lost ground, rising more than 20% from its low point in six of the past seven trading days.

Japan $TOPIX (.TOPIX.JP)$ This morning continued to rise, with an increase of more than 2% during trading hours.

In addition to the Japanese stock market, the South Korean stock market also rose sharply this morning.$Korea Composite Index (.KOSPI.KR)$During trading hours, the increase once exceeded 2%, and the land lost due to the violent fall on August 5 has already been regained. South Korea's composite index plunged 8.77% on August 5th.

Why the big rise?

Market analysis believes that the improvement of the global economic environment has weakened the market's concerns about future uncertainties, which led to the continued rebound of the Japanese and South Korean stock markets. On August 15th local time, data from the US Department of Commerce showed that the month-on-month retail sales rate in the United States increased by 1% in July, the largest increase since January 2023. The estimated value was 0.4%, and the previous value was 0. Compared to June, this is a strong rebound. June's sales data was revised to a 0.2% decline. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal predicted that retail sales in July would increase by 0.3%.

The greatly unexpected retail sales data greatly alleviated the market's concerns about the US economic recession, and also reduced investors' expectations for a sharp interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve this year.

Before the rise of the Japanese and Korean stock markets today, the overnight stock markets in Europe and the United States collectively rose, with both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 index achieving a six-day consecutive rise. As of the close, $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ up 1.39%, $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up 2.34%, $S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$ up 1.61%, UK FTSE100 index up 0.8%, France CAC40 index up 1.23%, Deguodaxzhishu index up 1.66%, Italy FTSE MIB index up 1%, Europe Stoxx 50 index up 1.7%.

Institutional views believe that looking ahead, temporary shocks are gradually receding, combined with the repair of domestic demand, the Japanese economy is returning to the expansion range, and inflation progress is expected to continue. Recent data shows that the momentum of the Japanese economy is still generally good. In July, the Japanese service industry PMI rose by 4.5 percentage points to 53.9, leading to a rebound in the composite PMI above the boom-bust line, and the manufacturing PMI fell slightly but remained higher than the first quarter. In terms of structure, domestic demand is expected to become an important support for growth in the future: residents' consumption may benefit from the wage negotiations in the Spring Labour Offensive; corporate investment may also benefit from the significant increase in corporate profits in 2023 and the recovery of corporate investment expectations. In addition, in the second quarter, Japan's nominal GDP growth rate rebounded sharply by 7.4% on a quarter-on-quarter annualized basis, reaching a new high since the third quarter of 2023, reflecting that Japan's inflation cycle is still continuing, and it is expected to boost the performance of the yen and related Japanese assets in the future.

The Hang Seng Index, the Hang Seng Tech Index, and all 'JD.COM' stocks rose by nearly 2%.

The Hong Kong stock market also opened high in the morning. As of press time, the Hang Seng Index and the Hang Seng Tech Index both rose by nearly 2%.

In the Hong Kong stock market, the "JD.com system" stocks all rose sharply, $JD LOGISTICS (02618.HK)$ up more than 14% during trading hours, $JD-SW (09618.HK)$ up more than 8% during trading hours,$JD HEALTH (06618.HK)$and the US stocks rose sharply by more than 4% overnight. $JD.com (JD.US)$

Yesterday, JD Group released its Q2 and first half of year 2024 performance report. The report shows that JD Group's revenue in Q2 was RMB 291.4 billion, and the first half of the year's revenue was RMB 551.4 billion, both of which increased year-on-year; Q2 net profit was RMB 14.5 billion, an increase of 69% year-on-year, and the net profit margin exceeded 5% for the first time. All data were significantly higher than the market's expectations.

Citigroup stated that JD's Q2 profit exceeded expectations, and stated that if the old-for-new policy is implemented faster than expected, it would become a catalyst for the company's stock price. Citigroup analysts Alicia Yap and others stated in a report that they expected the improvement in JD's sales of electronic and home appliances to continue into the second half of the year, and maintained a buy rating on the company. The target price of the company's ADR is US$41, based on a reasonable valuation and a steady trend of profit margins.

Jefferies believes that jd.com's Q2 profits under non-GAAP exceeded expectations, while management emphasized the steady growth momentum of the company in terms of customer base and purchase frequency, maintaining a buy rating on the company. Jefferies analysts, including Thomas Chong, pointed out in the report that jd.com's Q2 total revenue increased by 1.2% year-on-year, in line with expectations, and raised jd.com's ADR target price from $41 to $43.

Editor / jayden

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亚太市场涨势如虹！日经225指数大涨3%，发生了什么？