FUTU Morning Post

Futu Morning Briefing | S&P, NASDAQ have risen for six consecutive days, recovering all the losses from the 'August Panic'! Strong economic data hits recession expectations; individual investors succeeded in bottom fishing in August? Technology stocks lik

热点要闻

美国经济数据强劲打击降息预期，缓解经济衰退担忧

素有“恐怖数据”之称的美国7月零售销售月率录得1%，远超预期；上周初请人数略低于预期，降至7月以来最低水平；交易员削减美联储降息预期，利率期货定价美联储今年降息幅度减少到93个基点，9月降息50个基点的概率跌至27%。

美国住宅建筑商信心指数连续第四个月下滑

数据显示，8月建筑商信心指数较7月修正后的水平下降2点，至39。接受调查的经济学家的预期中值为43。数据显示对当前形势的看法偏悲观，但对前景的看法更为乐观。潜在买家流量和当前销售指标双双跌至年内新低，而衡量未来六个月销售预期的指标上升1点至49。NAHB首席经济学家Robert Dietz表示，这可能反映了对抵押贷款利率势将下降的预期。

美联储穆萨勒姆：美联储适度降息的时机即将到来

美联储穆萨勒姆表示，他相信适宜美联储降息的时机正在临近。穆萨勒姆称，他现在认为通胀回到了向美联储2%目标回归的轨道，劳动力市场不再对通胀构成风险。在他看来，使命两个方向上面临的风险似乎更加平衡，因此随着未来的会议临近，适宜向温和限制性的政策调整的时机可能正在来临。

鲍威尔将在下周五迎来定调9月降息的窗口

美联储主席鲍威尔定于北京时间下周五晚10:00就经济前景发表讲话，这是堪萨斯城联储在怀俄明州杰克森霍尔举行的年度经济研讨会的第一个全天会议日。这一全球央行年度会议为鲍威尔提供了一个机会，在美联储7月和9月决策会议之间对美国经济轨迹和货币政策前景作出最新评估。上个月他曾表示，如果通胀和劳动力市场继续降温，美联储下次会议可能会考虑降息。

美国大选辩论定档：特朗普与哈里斯约战两次，副手对决敲定10月初

经过双方竞争阵营确认，哈里斯-沃尔兹组合将与特朗普-万斯搭档大战三回合。其中，除了此前已经定下的9月10日总统候选人辩论外，两名副手沃尔兹和万斯将于当地时间10月1日参加哥伦比亚广播公司（CBS）主办的辩论。哈里斯阵营也宣布，双方同意到10月再办一场哈里斯与特朗普的辩论。

美国货币市场基金资产规模创下新高

上周全球风险资产抛售导致投资者纷纷套现后，美国货币市场基金的资产规模创下新高，原因是资金进一步涌向优质资产。据美国投资公司协会的数据，截至8月14日的一周，约有284亿美元流入美国货币市场基金，使总资产升至6.22万亿美元的历史最高水平录。

个人投资者8月抄底成功？英伟达等科技股受益

Vanda Research在周三发布的数据表明，散户投资者在8月初的市场混乱中积极买入，这种买入力度打破了散户投资者在第二季度参与较为平淡的趋势，也显示了当股票下跌时“逢低买入”的强烈愿望。Vanda Research还指出，下半年通常是散户投资者活动较为平淡的时期，这使得此次买入行为更加引人注目。

美股复盘

标普、纳指连涨六日，收复“8月惊魂”全部跌幅

随着美国零售数据超出预期、初请失业金人数跌至7月初以来最低水平，一扫衰退阴霾的美股又回到了携手上涨的状态。截至收盘，$标普500指数 (.SPX.US)$涨1.61%，报5543.22点； $纳斯达克综合指数 (.IXIC.US)$ 涨2.34%，报17594.5点； $道琼斯指数 (.DJI.US)$ 涨1.39%，报40563.06点。连续第六个交易日上涨后，纳指、标普500指数均已收复8月1日开始的“连跌惊魂”。

科技巨头领涨，苹果涨1.35%、微软涨1.18%、亚马逊涨4.4%、META涨2.01%、谷歌-A涨0.58%、特斯拉涨6.34%、英伟达涨4.05%、英特尔涨3.87%、AMD涨4.7%。

中概股也活跃走高，纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨1.72%。阿里巴巴发布财报后收涨0.09%、百度涨2.61%、拼多多涨2.18%、京东涨4.25%、网易涨2.7%、蔚来涨2.96%、理想汽车涨2.13%、小鹏汽车涨2.40%。

获伯克希尔建仓，美国最大美妆零售商大涨

截至周四收盘，美国最大美妆零售商 $Ulta美容 (ULTA.US)$ 上涨11.17%。昨日盘后，伯克希尔公布的美股持仓报告显示，在今年二季度建仓该公司69万股。

“世界500强榜首”沃尔玛股价创历史新高

当地时间周四，连续11年蝉联《财富》杂志世界500强榜首的美国零售巨头 $沃尔玛 (WMT.US)$ 跳涨6.58%，创历史新高。早些时候公司发布财报，在截至7月26日的13周中，公司总营收录得1693亿美元，同比增长4.8%；调整后每股收益0.67美元，同比上升9.8%；并预计后一季度营收增长3.25％至4.25％。管理层同时预测，接下来美国经济并不会出现全面衰退。

英媒：软银与英特尔的AI芯片合作谈判失败告终，目标转向台积电

据英媒报道， $软银集团 (9984.JP)$ 曾与 $英特尔 (INTC.US)$ 就生产一款人工智能芯片与 $英伟达 (NVDA.US)$ 竞争进行谈判，但由于这家美国芯片制造商难以满足软银的要求，该计划以失败告终。软银目前正专注于与 $台积电 (TSM.US)$ 进行谈判。

苹果将允许第三方使用iPhone的支付芯片来处理交易

在包括欧盟委员会在内的监管机构多年施加压力之后，苹果选择了向监管机构妥协，将允许第三方使用iPhone的支付芯片来处理交易。当地时间8月14日晚间， $苹果 (AAPL.US)$ 发布公告称，将面向开发者开放iPhone的NFC芯片，使用安全元件在各App中进行非接触式数据交换功能。

亚马逊将在英国测试Prime Air送货无人机超视距飞行

英国监管机构宣布， $亚马逊 (AMZN.US)$ Prime Air送货无人机已获准在英国测试超视距飞行(BVLOS)。这些测试项目包括亚马逊的无人机送货服务Prime Air，对海上风电场进行检查的Airspection，以及旨在运送医疗用品的Project Lifeline。截至周四收盘，在大盘涨势如虹的推动下，亚马逊收涨4.4%。

聚焦AI+裁员，思科股价走强

在周三盘后发布好于预期的财报后，大型计算机网络设备制造商 $思科 (CSCO.US)$ 宣布，将把90400名员工的数量减少约7%，即削减逾6300个工作岗位，并将业务焦点聚焦于AI、网络安全等增长更快的领域。受此影响，思科周四收涨6.8%。

美股成交额TOP20

港市前瞻

北水加仓腾讯超8亿港元，卖出美团超2亿港元

8月15日（周四），南下资金净买入港股66.35亿港元。

$盈富基金 (02800.HK)$、$腾讯控股 (00700.HK)$、$中国移动 (00941.HK)$分别获净买入25.59亿港元、8.37亿港元、6.12亿港元；

$美团-W (03690.HK)$、$中国海洋石油 (00883.HK)$、$建设银行 (601939.SH)$分别遭净卖出2.11亿港元、1.61亿港元、8,667万港元。

$阿里巴巴 (BABA.US)$：调整可转换优先票据转换率

$阿里巴巴-SW (09988.HK)$ 港交所公告，因2024年股息宣布，将有关今年5月23日、24日和30日公告的可转换优先票据的初始转换率由每1,000美元本金额的票据转换为9.5202股美国存托股份，调整为每1,000美元本金额的票据转换为9.7271股美国存托股份。最大转换率则由每1,000美元本金额的票据转换为12.3762股美国存托股份，调整为每1,000美元本金额的票据转换为12.6452股美国存托股份。

今日关注

关键词：通胀率预期初值；密歇根大学消费者信心指数初值；恒指季检

财经数据方面，美国8月一年期&五至十年期通胀率预期初值将公布，美国7月新屋开工总数年化以及美国7月营建许可总数将出炉。

财经事件方面，$恒生指数 (800000.HK)$公司将宣布2024年第二季度恒生指数系列检讨结果，2026年FOMC票委、费城联储主席哈克将发表讲话，国新办将举行“推动高质量发展”系列主题新闻发布会，国家市场监督管理总局副局长、国家认证认可监督管理委员会主任蒲淳出席介绍情况，并答记者问。

财报方面， $中兴通讯 (00763.HK)$ 将于港股盘后发布财报。

牛牛晨读：

投资的成功是建立在已有的知识和经验基础上的！

——［美］罗伊·纽伯格

编辑/emily

Hot news

Strong US economic data has hit rate cut expectations and eased concerns about an economic recession.

The US July retail sales rate, known as the "terror data," recorded 1%, far exceeding expectations; initial jobless claims for last week were slightly lower than expected, dropping to the lowest level since July; traders have reduced Fed rate cut expectations, with interest rate futures pricing a 93 basis point reduction in Fed rate cuts this year, and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September falling to 27%.

The US National Association of Home Builders' confidence index for home builders has fallen for the fourth consecutive month.

Data shows that the August home builder confidence index fell by 2 points from the revised July level to 39. The median expected value among surveyed economists is 43. The data shows a pessimistic view of the current situation, but a more optimistic view of the future. The potential buyer traffic and current sales indicators both plunged to new lows for the year, while the index measuring sales expectations over the next six months rose 1 point to 49. NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz said this may reflect expectations that mortgage rates will decline.

Fed's Mester: Appropriate time for moderate Fed rate cuts is coming soon.

Fed's Mester said she believes that the appropriate time for rate cuts is coming soon. Mester said she now believes that inflation has returned to the path of returning to the Fed's 2% target, and the labor market is no longer a risk to inflation. In her view, the risks facing the mission seem more balanced in both directions, so the appropriate time to adjust to a moderately restrictive policy may be approaching as future meetings approach.

Powell will face the window of setting the tone for a rate cut in September next Friday.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak about the economic outlook at 10:00 pm Beijing time next Friday. This is the first full day of the annual economic symposium hosted by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This global central bank annual meeting provides Powell with an opportunity to make the latest evaluation of the US economic trajectory and monetary policy prospects between the Fed's July and September policy meetings. He said last month that if inflation and labor market cooling continue, the Fed may consider cutting interest rates at the next meeting.

The schedule for the US election debate is set: Trump will face off against Harris twice, and the vice presidential debate will be held in early October.

After confirmation from both sides, the Harris-Valves combination will face off against the Trump-Pence duo in three rounds of debates. In addition to the presidential candidate debate scheduled for September 10th, the two vice presidential candidates, Valves and Pence, will participate in a debate hosted by CBS on October 1st. The Harris camp also announced that the two sides have agreed to another Harris-Trump debate in October.

USA MMF assets hit a record high in the fund market.

After a global risk asset sell-off last week, the assets of US money market funds have reached a new high due to funds further flowing into high-quality assets. According to data from the Investment Company Institute, in the week ending August 14th, about $28.4 billion flowed into US money market funds, pushing total assets to a historical high of $6.22 trillion.

Did individual investors successfully bottom out in August? Technology stocks such as Nvidia have benefited.

According to data released by Vanda Research on Wednesday, retail investors actively bought in during the market chaos in early August. This kind of buying broke the relatively flat trend of retail investors participating in the second quarter and showed a strong desire to "buy on dips". Vanda Research also pointed out that the second half of the year is usually a period of low activity for retail investors, making this buying behavior more eye-catching.

Gamestop's surge has dramatically narrowed, with the trading platform considering unplugging the internet of US retail investors.

S&P and Nasdaq both rose for six consecutive days, recovering all the losses from the 'August Panic'.

With US retail data exceeding expectations and initial jobless claims falling to the lowest level since early July, the US stock market has returned to the situation of rising together. As of the close,$S&P 500 Index (.SPX.US)$up 1.61%, at 5543.22 points; $Nasdaq Composite Index (.IXIC.US)$ up 2.34%, at 17594.5 points; $Dow Jones Industrial Average (.DJI.US)$ up 1.39%, at 40563.06 points. After rising for six consecutive trading days, the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indexes have both regained the fear of continuous decline since August 1st.

Technology Giants Lead, with Apple up 1.35%, Microsoft up 1.18%, Amazon up 4.4%, META up 2.01%, Google-A up 0.58%, Tesla up 6.34%, Nvidia up 4.05%, Intel up 3.87%, and AMD up 4.7%.

Chinese concept stocks are also active and rising, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index up 1.72%. After the release of its financial report, Alibaba rose 0.09%, Baidu rose 2.61%, Pinduoduo rose 2.18%, JD.com rose 4.25%, NetEase rose 2.7%, NIO rose 2.96%, Li Auto rose 2.13%, and Xpeng rose2.40%.

Largest US Beauty Retailer Surges on Berkshire Hathaway's Holdings.

At the close on Thursday, the largest US beauty retailer rose 11.17%. Yesterday, the US stock holdings report released by Berkshire Hathaway showed that the company bought 0.69 million shares in the second quarter of this year. $Ulta Beauty (ULTA.US)$

Walmart, the "World's 500 Strongest", sets a new historical high for its stock price.

The US retail giant, which has been ranked the world's top 500 by Fortune magazine for 11 consecutive years, $Walmart (WMT.US)$ jumped 6.58% to a new historical high. Earlier, the company released a financial report showing that in the 13 weeks ending on July 26th, the company's total revenue was $169.3 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%; adjusted earnings per share were $0.67, a year-on-year increase of 9.8%; and revenue growth in the next quarter is expected to be between 3.25% and 4.25%. Management also predicted that there would not be a general economic recession in the United States from now on.

UK media: Softbank's AI chip partnership negotiations with Intel have failed, turning to Taiwan Semiconductor as the target.

According to British media reports, Softbank negotiate with [2] on the production of an artificial intelligence chip. However, the plan failed because the US chip manufacturer could not meet Softbank's requirements. Softbank is currently focusing on negotiations with [4]. $SoftBank Group (9984.JP)$ Apple will allow third parties to use the payment chip on the iPhone to process transactions. After years of pressure from regulatory authorities, including the European Commission, Apple has chosen to compromise with regulators and will allow third parties to use the iPhone's NFC chip for contactless data exchange in various apps. $Intel (INTC.US)$ Please use your Futubull account to access the feature. $NVIDIA (NVDA.US)$ Softbank is currently focusing on negotiations with [4], after negotiations with [2] on the production of an artificial intelligence chip failed due to the US chip manufacturer's inability to meet Softbank's requirements. $Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM.US)$ Amazon's Prime Air delivery drone has been approved for beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) testing in the UK, including for delivery of medical supplies. As of Thursday's close, Amazon surged 4.4% driven by a booming stock market.

Apple will allow third parties to use the payment chip on the iPhone to process transactions.

After years of pressure from regulatory authorities, including the European Commission, Apple has chosen to compromise with regulators and will allow third parties to use the iPhone's NFC chip for contactless data exchange in various apps. On the evening of August 14th, [7] announced in a statement that it will open up the iPhone's NFC chip to developers and use secure elements for contactless data exchange in various apps. $Apple (AAPL.US)$ On the evening of August 14th, [7] announced in a statement that it will open up the iPhone's NFC chip to developers and use secure elements for contactless data exchange in various apps.

Amazon will test Prime Air delivery drones beyond visual line of sight in the United Kingdom.

UK regulators have announced that Prime Air delivery drones have been approved for beyond-visual-line-of-sight (BVLOS) testing in the UK, including for delivery of medical supplies. As of Thursday's close, Amazon surged 4.4% driven by a booming stock market. $Amazon (AMZN.US)$ Cisco, a large manufacturer of computer network devices, announced after Wednesday's close that it would reduce its workforce by approximately 7% or more than 6,300 jobs and focus on AI, cybersecurity and other faster-growing fields. Affected by this, Cisco rose 6.8% on Thursday.

After Cisco, a large manufacturer of computer network devices, announced that it would reduce its workforce by approximately 7%, or more than 6,300 jobs, and focus on AI, cybersecurity and other faster-growing fields, its stock price rose on Thursday.

After Cisco, a large manufacturer of computer network devices, announced that it would reduce its workforce by approximately 7%, or more than 6,300 jobs, and focus on AI, cybersecurity and other faster-growing fields, its stock price rose on Thursday. $Cisco (CSCO.US)$ On Thursday, Northbound funds net bought 6.635 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks. [13] was respectively bought for a net amount of HK $2.559 billion, HK $0.837 billion and HK $0.612 billion, while [14] was respectively sold for a net amount of HK $0.211 billion, HK $0.161 billion and HK $86.67 million.

If you want to play this game, you must believe in yourself and your judgment.

BeiShui crazily bought China Mobile for nearly HKD 1.8 billion and sold Tencent for about HKD 200 million. On Monday (June 3rd), Southbound funds net purchased HKD 3.4 billion of Hong Kong stocks.

On Thursday, Northbound funds net bought 6.635 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks. [13] was respectively bought for a net amount of HK $2.559 billion, HK $0.837 billion and HK $0.612 billion, while [14] was respectively sold for a net amount of HK $0.211 billion, HK $0.161 billion and HK $86.67 million.

On Thursday, Northbound funds net bought 6.635 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks. [13] was respectively bought for a net amount of HK $2.559 billion, HK $0.837 billion and HK $0.612 billion, while [14] was respectively sold for a net amount of HK $0.211 billion, HK $0.161 billion and HK $86.67 million.

$TRACKER FUND OF HONG KONG (02800.HK)$,$TENCENT (00700.HK)$,$CHINA MOBILE (00941.HK)$On Thursday, Northbound funds net bought 6.635 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks. [13] was respectively bought for a net amount of HK $2.559 billion, HK $0.837 billion and HK $0.612 billion, while [14] was respectively sold for a net amount of HK $0.211 billion, HK $0.161 billion and HK $86.67 million.

$MEITUAN-W (03690.HK)$,$CNOOC (00883.HK)$,$China Construction Bank Corporation (601939.SH)$On Thursday, Northbound funds net bought 6.635 billion Hong Kong dollars in Hong Kong stocks. [13] was respectively bought for a net amount of HK $2.559 billion, HK $0.837 billion and HK $0.612 billion, while [14] was respectively sold for a net amount of HK $0.211 billion, HK $0.161 billion and HK $86.67 million.

$Alibaba (BABA.US)$: Adjustment of convertible preferred notes conversion ratio

$BABA-SW (09988.HK)$ The Hong Kong Stock Exchange announced that due to the declaration of a dividend for 2024, the initial conversion rate for the convertible preference notes announced on May 23, 24 and 30 this year will be adjusted from 9.5202 shares of American depositary shares per $1,000 principal amount of notes to 9.7271 shares of American depositary shares per $1,000 principal amount of notes. The maximum conversion rate will be adjusted from 12.3762 shares of American depositary shares per $1,000 principal amount of notes to 12.6452 shares of American depositary shares per $1,000 principal amount of notes.

The company's overall sales volume in 2023 was 18,000 kiloliters, with a year-on-year increase of 28.10%, indicating significant growth. In terms of product structure, the operating income of products worth 10-30 billion yuan were 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.

Keywords: Initial value of inflation rate expectations; Preliminary value of University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index; Hang Seng Index quarterly review.

In terms of financial data, the initial values of one-year and five-to-ten-year inflation rate expectations for August will be released in the US, and the annualized total number of new home starts and total building permits for July in the US will be announced.

In terms of financial events,$Hang Seng Index (800000.HK)$The company will announce the results of the Hang Seng Index series review in the second quarter of 2024. In 2026, FOMC voter and Philadelphia Fed President Harker will give a speech. The State Council Information Office will hold a series of themed press conferences on promoting high-quality development, at which Vice Director of the State Administration of Market Regulation and Director of the National Accreditation Commission for Conformity Assessment Pu Chun will attend and answer questions.

In terms of financial reports, $ZTE (00763.HK)$ will release its financial report after the close of trading on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange.

Futubull Morning News:

The success of investment is built on existing knowledge and experience! -[US] Roy Newburg

Editor/Emily

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