素质教育及高中辅导课程均实现高增长，学习中心持续扩张。（1）分业务看，非学业素质课程/辅导课程（高中）收入分别为3.67/0.33 亿元，同比增长57.8%/70.6%，主要来自量增：非学业素质课程/辅导课程学生人次分别为17.0/1.47 万人，同比增长57.3%/70.1%，非学业素质课程/辅导课程辅导课时数分别为420.3/36.1万，同比增长57.1%/70.2%，非学业素质课程/辅导课程客单价分别为87.2/90.2 元/课时， 同比增长0.5%/0.2%。（2）学习中心看，截至报告期内，公司拥有学习中心超过145 家，同比增长57.6%。（3）公司持续发展新业务，自2023 年7 月起推出教育旅游业务及国际课程，为公司发展提供第二增长曲线。（4）公司校长及教师储备丰富，截至报告期内，公司员工2603 人，较年初增加12%、同比增长48.2%，拥有超100 人校长及储备校长。Incident Overview
In the first half of 2024, the company's revenue/net profit to mother/ adjusted net profit to mother was 0.399/0.083/0.094 billion yuan, up 58.8%/92.5%/101.1% year-on-year, in line with the profit forecast. The increase in adjusted net profit to mother was significantly higher than revenue, mainly due to the increase in the company's gross margin and the decline in the expense ratio due to the scale effect. The adjustments are mainly 0.011 billion yuan for employee equity incentives. Looking at forward-looking indicators, 2024H1's contract debt was 0.249 billion yuan, an increase of 93.2% over the previous year.
Analytical judgment:
Both quality education and high school tutoring programs have achieved high growth, and learning centers have continued to expand. (1) By business, revenue from non-academic quality courses/ tutoring courses (high school) was 0.367/0.033 billion yuan respectively, up 57.8%/70.6% year on year, mainly from volume increase: the number of students in non-academic quality courses/ tutoring courses was 0.17/0.0147 million, up 57.3%/70.1% year on year, and the number of tutoring hours for non-academic quality courses/ tutoring courses was 4.203/0.361 million, up 57.1%/70.2% year on year, and non-academic quality The unit price of the course/tutoring course was 87.2/90.2 yuan/lesson hour, respectively, an increase of 0.5%/0.2% over the previous year. (2) Looking at learning centers, as of the reporting period, the company had more than 145 learning centers, an increase of 57.6% over the previous year. (3) The company continues to develop new businesses. Since July 2023, it has launched educational tourism business and international courses, providing a second growth curve for the company's development. (4) The company has rich reserves of principals and teachers. As of the reporting period, the company had 2,603 employees, an increase of 12% over the beginning of the year and an increase of 48.2% over the previous year, with over 100 principals and reserve principals.
We analyzed that the increase in gross margin mainly benefited from the increase in teachers' capacity utilization. The increase in 2024H1 OPM was higher than gross margin mainly due to lower expenses, and the lower increase in net interest rate than OPM was mainly due to the increase in income tax rates. 2024H1's gross margin/OPM/adjusted net profit margin was 44.4%/28.5%/23.4%, respectively, up 3.0/8.8/4.9PCT year-on-year, and 4.1PCT compared to 23H2. The increase in OPM was higher than gross margin mainly due to a decrease of 6PCT in the administrative expenses rate, but the adjusted net interest rate increase was lower than that of OPM mainly due to the increase in income tax rates. The 24-year sales expenses/ administrative expenses/ R&D expenses/ financial expense ratios were 1.6%/14.1%/2.6%/1.2%, respectively, up -0.4/-6.0/ -0.8/0.1PCT; income tax/revenue increased 4.95PCT, and the income tax rate increased 24.5%, up 15PCT year-on-year.
Advance payments for training have increased dramatically, providing a guarantee for the education business in the second half of the year. As of 2024H1, the company's contract debt was 0.249 billion yuan, an increase of 93.2% over the previous year. Our analysis mainly focused on the increase in advance payments for the quality education and counseling course business to provide a definitive guarantee for the operation of the education business in the second half of 2024.
Investment advice
According to our analysis, (1) in the short term, the company's network is expanding rapidly. We believe that the company's contract liabilities guarantee a high increase in quality education and counseling and training business; (2) teachers and talent reserves are growing rapidly. In the future, the company will further strengthen cooperative recruitment in colleges and universities to pave the way for local share and offsite expansion in Shenzhen; (3) In the long run, we believe that Guangzhou is the next growth point for the company, and we are expected to restart the expansion of Guangzhou and other surrounding regions in the future. We raised the company's profit forecast, increasing the company's 24-26 revenue of 0.809/1.108/1.463 billion yuan to 0.84/1.19/1.57 billion yuan, and increasing 24-26 net profit to mother of 0.144/0.204/0.284 billion yuan to 0.17/0.24/0.326 billion yuan, corresponding to an increase in 24-26 EPS of 0.26/0.37/0.51 yuan to 0.31/0.43/0.59 yuan. The closing price of HK$5.13 on August 15, 2024 was 15/11/8X (corresponding 1 HKD = RMB 0.92) for 24-26 PE, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Market competition risk; risk of network expansion falling short of expectations; risk of tuition fee increases and student enrollment falling short of expectations; risk of loss of management team and teaching staff; systemic risk.
