Futures Morning Peak - Audio Version
Macro News
On August 15, 2024, the People's Bank of China carried out a 577.7 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation by means of fixed rate and quantity bidding. The MLF that expires on the 15th will be renewed on August 26.
Liu Aihua, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in July, some real estate-related indicators in China continued to narrow in decline, but at the same time, we should also see that most real estate indicators are still declining, and the real estate market is still in the process of adjustment. In the next stage, we will persist in combining digestion of stock with optimization of increment, and actively support the acquisition of existing commodity housing for use as affordable housing. Overall, PPI is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline during the second half of the year, but there may still be some uncertain new factors and fluctuations in some months.
In July, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 3,775.7 billion yuan, up 2.7% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 3,395.9 billion yuan, up 3.6%. From January to July, the total retail sales of consumer goods in China was 27,372.6 billion yuan, up 3.5% year-on-year. Among them, the retail sales of consumer goods excluding automobiles reached 24,699 billion yuan, up 4.0%.
In July, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 5.1% year-on-year (the growth rate of the added value is the actual growth rate excluding price factors). From a month-on-month perspective, the added value of industries above designated size in July increased by 0.35% compared with the previous month. From January to July, the added value of industries above designated size in China increased by 5.9% year-on-year.
In response to a reporter's inquiry about the export control policy of antimony and other items, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce stated that the implementation of the export control of antimony, superhard materials and other related items is an international practice. China has learned from international practices and implemented export controls on relevant items according to its own needs, with the aim of better safeguarding national security and fulfilling international obligations such as non-proliferation. The relevant policies are not targeted at any specific country or region. If the export meets relevant regulations, it will be approved.
A reporter asked how monetary policy will continue to support stable growth. Pan Gongsheng, governor of the People's Bank of China, said that since this year, the People's Bank of China has carried out three relatively large adjustments to monetary and financial policies. First, we need to increase implementation efforts to make it effective. Second, we will further plan new incremental policies in accordance with the requirements of the central government and the State Council.
Fed's Mester said she believes it is appropriate for the Fed to cut interest rates soon. Mester said she now believes inflation has returned to a path toward the Fed's 2% target, and the labor market is no longer posing a threat to inflation.
Fed Chairman Powell is scheduled to speak about the economic outlook on Friday night Beijing time. This is the first full-day session of the annual economic symposium held by the Kansas City Fed in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. This global central bank annual meeting provides Powell with an opportunity to make the latest evaluation of the trajectory of the US economy and monetary policy between the Fed's July and September policy meetings. Last month, he said that if inflation and the labor market continued to cool, the Fed's next meeting might consider a rate cut.
Global futures market dynamics
Domestic commodity futures night session generally rose, energy and chemical products rose across the board, Soda ash rose 2.85%, Rbob gasoline rose 1.73%, Low sulfur fuel oil rose 1.61%, Pta rose 1.6%, Rubbers rose 1.57%, Styrene rose 1.47%, Crude oil rose 1.12%. Most of the black series rose, Coking coal rose 1.98%, Iron ore rose 1.56%. Agricultural products rose across the board, Soybean No. 2 rose 1.5%, Palm oil rose 1.45%, Rapeseed meal rose 1.29%, Rapeseed oil rose 1.15%, Soybean meal rose 1.02%. Basic metals rose across the board, Shanghai tin rose 2.92%, Aluminium oxide rose 2.87%, Shanghai copper rose 1.92%, Shanghai zinc rose 1.77%, Shanghai lead rose 1.49%, Shanghai aluminum rose 1.26%, Stainless steel rose 0.55%, Shanghai nickel rose 0.32%. Shanghai gold rose 0.74%, Shanghai silver rose 3.4%.
International oil prices rose across the board, with the September contract for US oil up 1.44% to $78.09 per barrel. The October contract for Brent crude rose 1.42% to $80.89 per barrel.
The international precious metals futures rose generally, with COMEX gold futures up 0.6% to $2,494.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures up 3.95% to $28.42 per ounce.
London's basic metals rose across the board, with LME copper futures up 1.89% to $9,138 per tonne, LME zinc futures up 2.54% to $2,784 per tonne, LME nickel futures rose 0.24% to $16,315 per tonne, LME aluminum futures up 0.88% to $2,356 per tonne, LME tin futures up 2.05% to $32,075 per tonne, LME lead futures up 1.34% to $2,036 per tonne.
CBOT agricultural futures main contracts fell across the board, with soybean futures down 0.08% to 967.75 cents/bushel, corn futures down 1% to 396.75 cents/bushel, and wheat futures down 1.4% to 527.25 cents/bushel.
Black series Hot News
According to data from the Port of Hedland Authority (PPA) in Australia, iron ore exports from the Port of Hedland in July were 43.1574 million tons, down from 54.1872 million tons in June. Manganese ore exports were 0.1541 million tons, up from 0.1032 million tons in June. Of this, 34.1013 million tons of iron ore were exported to China from the Port of Hedland in July, down from 48.4611 million tons in June, and 0.0612 million tons of manganese ore were exported to China in July, down from 0.1032 million tons in June.
According to Mysteel, as of the week ending on August 15th, the production of rebar at 30 independent coking plants nationwide has continued to decline for the seventh consecutive week, with steel mills' inventory decreasing for the third consecutive week, and social inventory decreasing for the sixth consecutive week, indicating that demand is likely to shift from decrease to increase. The social inventory of rebar was 5.0905 million tons, down 0.2608 million tons from the previous week, a decrease of 4.87%; and the demand for rebar was 1.9596 million tons, up 0.052 million tons from the previous week, an increase of 2.73%.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to July, investment in real estate development in China was 6,087.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.2% year-on-year, of which investment in residential buildings was 4,623 billion yuan, a decrease of 10.6%. From January to July, the sales area of newly built commercial buildings was 541.49 million square meters, down 18.6% year-on-year, of which the sales area of residential buildings was down 21.1%. The sales volume of newly built commercial buildings was 5,333 billion yuan, down 24.3%, of which the sales volume of residential buildings was down 25.9%. As of the end of July, the area of commercial buildings for sale was 739.26 million square meters, up 14.5% year-on-year, of which the area of residential buildings for sale was up 22.5%.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in July, the sales prices of commercial residential buildings decreased month-on-month, and the overall decline was slightly expanded year-on-year, while the year-on-year decline of second-hand residential sales prices in first-tier cities continued to narrow.
According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, coal production has steadily increased. In July, the output of raw coal in industrial enterprises above designated size was 0.39 billion tons, an increase of 2.8% year-on-year, a decrease of 0.8 percentage points from June. The daily output was 12.592 million tons. Coal imports were 46.21 million tons, up 17.7% year-on-year.
On August 15th, steel mills in Hebei, China cut their purchase prices for coke by RMB 50-55/tonne. After the adjustment, the prices are: level one moist quenched coke (A≤12.5, S≤0.7, CSR≥65, MT≤7), priced at RMB 1910/tonne; level one dry quenched coke (A≤12.5, S≤0.7, CSR≥65, MT=0), priced at RMB 2175/tonne; middle sulfur moist quenched coke (A≤13, S≤1, CSR≥60, MT≤7), priced at RMB 1710/tonne. All prices are including tax and acceptance at the factory, and are effective from 00:00 on the 15th.
According to Mysteel, due to the increase in production costs of building steel products under the new national standard, many steel mills such as Shaogang, Xianggang (Yangchun Xinxing Iron and Steel), Zhuhai Yuegang, Shenzhen Huamei, Guangdong Jinshilan, Heyuan Derun, and Shengli Qingyuan have successively implemented a price increase of RMB 50/tonne on new national standard resources for building steel products.
This week, Mysteel's Coal and Coke Division surveyed the ton coke profitability of 30 independent coking plants nationwide, and the average ton coke profitability was -37 RMB/ton. The average profitability of quasi first-class coke in Shanxi was -2 RMB/ton, and that in Shandong was -1 RMB/ton, while that of second-class coke in Inner Mongolia was -105 RMB/ton, and that of quasi first-class coke in Hebei was 37 RMB/ton.
Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group News
According to AmSpec, an independent inspection agency in Malaysia, palm oil exports from Malaysia amounted to 599,663 tons from August 1st to 15th, a decrease of 22% from the same period last month.
According to the data from the shipping survey agency ITS, the export volume of palm oil from Malaysia from August 1st to 15th was 637,466 tons, a decrease of 20.2% from the export volume of 799,268 tons in the same period last month.
According to foreign media reports, data released by the Brazilian shipping agency Williams showed that as of last week, the number of ships waiting to load sugar at Brazilian ports has dropped from 98 to 94. The total amount of sugar waiting to be loaded at ports is 3,997.7 million tons, down from 4,509.3 million tons last week. Of the total amount of sugar waiting to be exported that week, 3.7945 million tons were high-grade raw sugar (VHP). The amount of sugar waiting to be exported at Santos port was 2.9352 million tons, and at Paranagua port was 0.7657 million tons.
According to the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (Anec), based on shipping planning data, Brazilian soybean exports are expected to be 2.2466 million tons from August 11th to 17th, up from 1.7372 million tons last week. Exports of soybean meal are expected to be 0.6316 million tons, up from 0.3405 million tons last week; and exports of corn are expected to be 1.4636 million tons, up from 1.2504 million tons last week.
According to the latest drought report from the USDA, as of the week ending on August 13th, about 7% of soybean planting areas in the United States were affected by drought, up from 5% the previous week, but down from 38% during the same period last year. About 6% of corn planting areas in the United States were affected by drought, up from 5% the previous week, but down from 42% during the same period last year.
The International Grains Council (IGC) estimates that global soybean production in 2024/25 will be 0.419 billion tons, higher than the previous estimate of 0.415 billion tons, and significantly higher than the 0.392 billion tons in the previous year. It is predicted that global soybean production in 2024/25 will reach a record high, and all major producing countries may have a good harvest.
According to the US Department of Agriculture, as of the week of August 8th, net sales of US soybeans for the 2023/2024 marketing year were 0.222 million tons, compared to 0.325 million tons the previous week; Net sales of soybeans for the 2024/2025 marketing year were 1.344 million tons, compared to 0.985 million tons the previous week.
According to the American Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), inventory of US soybean oil in July 2024 was 1.499 billion pounds, with a market expectation of 1.608 billion pounds, compared to 1.622 billion pounds in June and 1.527 billion pounds in July 2023. The soybean crush volume for July 2024 was 0.182881 billion bushels, with a market expectation of 0.182367 billion bushels, compared to 0.1756 billion bushels in June and 0.173303 billion bushels in July 2023.
According to the latest data from the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), as of August 9th, the US cotton ON-call unpriced sales orders were 59720 contracts, a decrease of 97 contracts from the previous month; The unpriced buy orders were 85395 contracts, a decrease of 789 contracts from the previous month.
Energy and Chemicals News
According to Longzhong Information, as of August 15th, the comprehensive production capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 81.61%, a decrease of 7.61% compared to last week. This week's soda ash output was 0.6804 million tons, a decrease of 0.0635 million tons on a weekly basis, a decrease of 8.53%. This week, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.1483 million tons, an increase of 0.0097 million tons compared to Monday, an increase of 0.85%; the total inventory of sample enterprises in the national float glass industry was 67.43 million heavy boxes, an increase of 0.074 million heavy boxes or 0.11% on a weekly basis, an increase of 64.19% year-on-year, and an inventory turnover of 29.2 days, an increase of 0.4 days from the previous period.
According to the data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the growth rate of crude oil production has accelerated. In July, crude oil production of enterprises above designated size was 17.9 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 3.4%, an increase of 1.0 percentage points faster than in June; the daily output was 0.577 million tons. Imported crude oil was 42.34 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 3.1%.
According to Enterprise Singapore (ESG), as of the week of August 14th, fuel oil inventories in Singapore fell by 1.584 million barrels to a five-week low of 18.143 million barrels. Mid-distillate inventories in Singapore rose by 0.023 million barrels to a three-year high of 12.016 million barrels. Light distillate inventories in Singapore rose by 1.024 million barrels to a three-week high of 15.095 million barrels.
According to the EIA natural gas report, as of the week of August 9th, the total inventory of natural gas in the United States was 3264 billion cubic feet, a decrease of 6 billion cubic feet from the previous week, an increase of 209 billion cubic feet compared to the same period last year, an increase of 6.8% year-on-year, and higher than the five-year average of 375 billion cubic feet, an increase of 13.0%.
Metal Hotspot News
According to data from the Indonesian Ministry of Trade, Indonesia's refined tin exports in July were 3,409 tons, down 23.5% from the same period last year and down 51.5% from the same period last year. From January to July, Indonesia's tin ingot exports totaled 0.018 million tons, a decrease of 50% YoY. Affected by the slow approval of export quotas at the beginning of the year, the export of tin ingots in Indonesia plummeted almost to zero. After March, with the resumption of approval, the export of tin ingots rebounded, but the overall export level is still low.
Bostic, the 2024 FOMC voting committee member and Atlanta Fed president, told the Financial Times of the United Kingdom that he is "open" to easing in September. He warned that the Fed cannot be "late" in easing monetary policy as the labor market cools. As price pressure eases, Fed officials also need to realize that their mission is to maintain full employment.
According to data from the Port of Pilbara Management Authority (PPA) in Australia, exports of spodumene concentrate from Hedland Port in July were 92,533 tons, compared to 206,407 tons in June. Among them, Hedland Port exported 92,533 tons of spodumene concentrate to China in July, compared to 195,407 tons in June.
US retail sales rose more than expected in July, which may help ease concerns in the financial markets about a sharp slowdown in the economy, a concern that has intensified due to the jump in the unemployment rate. According to the data released, retail sales increased by 1.0% last month, and retail sales for June were revised down to a 0.2% decline.
BHP Group and striking Chilean miners are trying to resume negotiations over a wage dispute at the world's largest copper mine. Both sides held talks on Thursday under the auspices of the labor department in an effort to reach agreement on negotiation terms. BHP has implemented an emergency plan at the copper mine, claiming the right to use workers who are not members of the main union to maintain partial operations, while the union claims this violates labor regulations.
Praising "Periods" - Revealing the Trading Logic of Commodity Trading!
The fourth round of coke price cuts has been fully implemented, what will happen to the future of coke?
According to Zhonghui Futures analysis, the supply and demand of coke are relatively loose, the profit and loss balance of coking, the enthusiasm of coking plants is general, the production changes little, the downstream iron water has dropped sharply, and the demand has weakened, resulting in a slight increase in the overall coke inventory. In the short term, coke prices lack independent pricing power. After four rounds of price reductions, the expectation of five rounds of price reductions is further fermenting. Under the deepening negative feedback of the industry chain, the price of double coke is suppressed. However, due to the overall price decline of the sector, the decline is too great, and it is not advisable to pursue shorting excessively. The main view of the short-term observation board is to stabilize the coke 2501 and coke 2501 on the daily chart after breaking through the 5-day line, and then light buying is more secure.
With the expectation of replenishing the warehouse falling through, when will the period price of lithium carbonate stop falling?
Galaxy Futures analysis pointed out that in terms of demand, the production of batteries and positive electrodes from August to October is expected to reflect certain seasonal characteristics. However, the proportion of customer supply is still high and downstream raw material inventory is not low, with insufficient replenishment power. From the supply side, lithium mine prices continue to decline and the transactions are light, and the atmosphere of the lithium salt market is still pessimistic. The production of lithium salts and imports from Chile in August are expected to decrease slightly, and the surplus margin will narrow. However, if the seasonal effect is not better than expected or upstream production reduction cannot be seen, the rebound will eventually be limited. The spot market is under high inventory pressure, and a certain salt lake enterprise may release its low-priced industrial carbon. The price in the near month is still seeking bottom, and it is suggested to maintain the trend following strategy and pay attention to the capital trend.
Overview of important futures data and events today.
1. To be determined, China's iron ore inventory at 45 ports until August 15; China's self-bred and self-raised pig and imported pig farming profits until August 16. 2. To be determined, weekly inventory of vegetable meal and soybean meal until August 16 in China; estimated production of SPPOMA palm oil in Malaysia from August 1 to 15.
2. To be determined, weekly inventory of vegetable meal and soybean meal until August 16 in China; estimated production of SPPOMA palm oil in Malaysia from August 1 to 15.