3）费用端：24Q2 公司销售/管理/研发/财务费用率为9.2%/4.7%/6.0%/-1.7%，同比-1.8/+0.5/+0.3/+1.4pct，环比-1.2/-0.6/-0.1/+0.4pcts，随着北美全地形车去库存收尾，公司销售费用率有所下降，费用结构持续优化。Incident: The company disclosed the 2024 semi-annual report. The company's 24H1 revenue was 7.53 billion yuan, +15.7% year over year; net profit to mother was 0.71 billion yuan, +28.5% year over year; net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 0.69 billion yuan, +32.0% year over year. The company's 24Q2 revenue was 4.47 billion yuan, +23.2% YoY, +46.0%; net profit to mother was 0.43 billion yuan, +26.4% YoY; +55.4% month-on-month, exceeding market expectations.
24H1's performance exceeded expectations, and motorcycle sales grew rapidly. 1) Revenue side: 24H1's motorcycle sales volume was 0.154 million units, revenue was 3.25 billion yuan, and ASP was 0.021 million yuan. We expect 24Q2 motorcycle sales volume to be 0.09 million units, +45.1% YoY, +38.8% month-on-month; four-wheelers sold 0.081 million units, achieving sales revenue of 3.53 billion yuan, a slight year-on-year decline. ASP was 0.043 billion yuan At million yuan, we expect 24Q2 four-wheeler sales of 0.048 million units, +15.8% year over year and +46.7% month over month. 24Q2 achieved significant year-on-month revenue growth. We believe this is due to the company's two rounds of high domestic and foreign sales growth and a recovery in sales after four rounds of inventory removal.
2) Profit side: 24H1's net profit to mother was 0.71 billion yuan, +28.5% YoY, 24Q2 net profit 0.43 billion yuan, +26.4% YoY, +55.4% month-on-month, net interest rate was 10.1%, +0.2pcts year-on-year, and +0.6pcts month-on-month. We believe this is due to product structure adjustment+cost structure optimization+exchange earnings to increase net profit.
3) Cost side: 24Q2 The company's sales/management/R&D/finance expense ratio was 9.2%/4.7%/6.0%/-1.7%, -1.8/+0.5/+0.3/+1.4pct year-on-month, -1.2/-0.6/-0.1/+0.4pcts month-on-month. As the North American all-terrain vehicle inventory came to an end, the company's sales expenses rate declined, and the cost structure continued to be optimized.
Motorcycles: The 24H1 medium and large sales volume first ranked first in the industry, and overseas sales continued to accelerate. Medium-sized motorcycles:
According to data from the China Motorcycle Chamber of Commerce, the company's 24H1 medium and large (250cc or above) models sold 0.075 million units, increasing its market share to 21.1% compared to +5.9pcts in the full year of 2023, ranking first in the middle and large cab industry; the extreme core brand: 24H1 sold 0.02 million extremely nuclear electric vehicles, achieving sales revenue of 0.12 billion yuan. The products have covered more than 30 countries and regions including Europe, Asia and South America. Channel growth of 181.3%; export side: The company's two-wheeled motorcycle export performance was impressive. In the first half of the year, it achieved two rounds of export sales of 0.086 million units, with revenue of 1.8 billion yuan, an increase of 45.1% over the previous year. With excellent design capabilities and excellent product performance, the company continues to open up new space in overseas markets and promote steady business expansion.
All-terrain vehicles: Dig deeper into the US market and are optimistic about the high-end four-wheel layout. 24H1 sold 0.081 million all-terrain vehicles, +2.6% year over year, achieving sales revenue of 3.53 billion yuan, or -1.6% year over year. The company maintained a steady development trend. The European market continued to rank first in market share, and the US market continued to develop. The company's all-terrain vehicle product structure continues to be optimized, and the sales share of high-value-added products is steadily increasing. It is optimistic that the company will expand its product line (high-end U/Z series) and continue to increase its market share in the medium to long term.
Investment advice: We are optimistic about the company's two-wheeler exports and four-wheel high-end layout in the long term, and maintain profit forecasts. We expect the company's 2024-2026 revenue to 15.2/19.59/23.7 billion yuan, net profit to mother of 1.323/1.729/2.095 billion yuan, and EPS of 8.74/11.42/13.83 yuan. Corresponding to the closing price of 134.99 yuan/share on August 15, 2024, PE was 15/12/10 times, respectively, maintaining the “recommended” rating.
Risk warning: competition in the motorcycle market intensifies; overseas four-wheel demand falls short of expectations; exchange rate fluctuations, etc.
