"Terrifying data" proves the resilience of the US economy. The US dollar has returned to the 103 level, and gold has plummeted nearly $40 higher than the previous day. The White House said Iran may carry out raids, and another region in Russia has entered a federal state of emergency. What major events happened around the world last night and this morning?
Today's selection.
US retail sales data in July far exceeded expectations.
White House: Iran may launch attacks with little warning.
Hamas senior official refutes Israel's claim of killing its military department head.
Japan reduced its holding of US bonds by $10.6 billion in June, while China increased its holding.
Two departments: Export control will be implemented for antimony and other items.
National Bureau of Statistics: PPI is expected to narrow its year-on-year decline in the second half of the year.
The central bank has postponed the MLF renewal, and LPR and MLF have further decoupled.
Financial regulatory authorities: No limit has been set on banks investing in funds.
Market inventory.
On Thursday, strong US economic data caused traders to reduce their bets on a Fed rate cut. The US dollar index rose strongly after the release of retail sales data, crossing the 103 mark and ultimately closing up 0.439% at 103.05. US bond yields rose across the board, with the benchmark 10-year US bond yield ending at 3.915%; the more interest-rate-sensitive two-year US bond yield ended at 4.101%.
Affected by the strengthened US dollar and US bond yields, spot gold plummeted during the day and fell nearly $40 from its daily high, before rebounding from the bottom and finally closing up 0.35% at $2,456.49/oz. Spot silver closed up 2.88% at $28.36/oz.
International oil prices rebounded due to the economic data easing concerns about a recession in the world's largest economy, thereby boosting confidence in the outlook for oil demand. WTI crude oil closed up 1.17% at $78.05/barrel, and Brent crude oil closed up 1.18% at $80.92/barrel.
The three major US stock indexes rose collectively, with the Dow rising 1.3%, the S&P 500 rising 1.6%, and the Nasdaq rising 2.3%. Intel (INTC.O) rose 3.8%, NVIDIA (NVDA.O) rose 4%, Tesla (TSLA.O) rose 6%, and Amazon (AMZN.O) rose 4%. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon Index closed up 1.7%, Alibaba (BABA.N) up slightly, JD.com (JD.O) up more than 4%, and NIO Inc. (NIO.N) up 3%.
Major European stock indexes rose across the board, with the German DAX30 index up 1.66%, the UK FTSE100 index up 0.8%, and the Euro STOXX 50 index up 1.7%.
The Hang Seng Index opened down 105 points at 17,008, and fell as much as 186 points to a low of 16,926, falling below the 17,000 mark. Later, boosted by positive economic data from the mainland, it turned sharply upward, rising more than 170 points at one point to 17,283 and returning to the 20-day moving average. In the afternoon, it reversed its decline. At the close, the Hang Seng Index fell 0.02%, the HSTECH Index fell 0.34%, and the turnover of the Hang Seng Index was HKD 87.93 billion. Semiconductor, livestock feed, and LED stocks rose, while gaming software and coal industrial concept(cola industry) rebounded. Agricultural products, car dealers/auto retailers, and outfitters fell, and digital health stocks fell for several days in a row. In terms of individual stocks, Sino Biopharm (01177.HK) rose more than 5.5%, Netease (09999.HK), SenseTime (00020.HK), and China Shenhua Energy (01088.HK) all rose more than 3%; Ali Health (00241.HK) and JD Health (06618.HK) both fell more than 3%, Bilibili (09626.HK) and Alibaba (09988.HK) both fell more than 2%, and Tencent (00700.HK) and JD.com (09618.HK) both fell more than 1.4%.
The three major indexes of A shares opened low and increased during the day. As of the close, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.94%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose by 0.71%, and the Chinext Price Index rose by 0.53%. On the market, the AI glasses concept rose sharply, with Doctorglasses rising for three consecutive days, Netac Technology rising more than 10%, and Zowee Technology, Yingtong Telecommunication and other stocks rising by the daily limit; the online game concept rose sharply, with Fuchun Technology, Tangel Culture, New Guomai Digital Culture and other stocks rising by the daily limit; the tourism sector strengthened in the afternoon, with Changbai Mountain and Zhejiang Sunriver Culture Tourism rising by the daily limit. The new urbanization concept performed relatively weakly, with Zhaobang Shares and Hope Shares being the top losers. The copper cable high-speed connection, coal, construction machinery, real estate, and diversified finance sectors also led the gains, while recent IPOs, green building, special treatment, and other sectors were the top losers. Among the Shenzhen, Shanghai, and Beijing markets, there were more than 3,800 gainers, and the trading volume of the two markets exceeded 590 billion yuan.
International News
1. The U.S. July retail sales rate recorded 1%, far exceeding expectations, known as "scary data"; initial jobless claims were slightly lower than expected, reaching the lowest level since July; traders cut expected Fed interest rate cuts, with the interest rate futures pricing the Fed's rate cut this year reduced to 93 basis points and the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut in September falling to 27%.
2. St. Louis Fed Chairman Mursalem: The timing of policy rate changes may be imminent, and the data does not support the view of a recession; Atlanta Fed Chairman Bostick: The Fed cannot delay in taking loose policies; Powell will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at the Jackson Hole Central Bank Symposium at 10:00 p.m. on August 23 Beijing time.
3. Middle East situation - The differences between the parties in the Gaza cease-fire negotiations are still very large, and negotiations will continue on Friday; the White House: Iran may launch attacks with little warning.
4. Russo-Ukrainian conflict-Ukrainian troops have controlled 1,150 square kilometers of land and 82 settlements in the Kursk region; US media revealed that Ukraine planned to carry out the "Nord Stream" pipeline bombing. German lawmakers said that if true, weapons supplies to Ukraine should be stopped; Russia has declared a state of emergency in the Belgorod region.
5. Hamas senior official Osama Hamdan revealed that the head of the Hamas military department, Mohamed Deif, is currently "fine." Previously, Israel had claimed to have killed him in an airstrike on July 13 this year.
6. Iraq has postponed the announcement of the end date of the international coalition's mission in Iraq, including US troops.
7. In June, Japan reduced its holdings of US Treasuries by $10.6 billion, while China increased its holdings by $11.9 billion.
8. Australia's seasonally adjusted unemployment rate in July recorded 4.2%, the highest since January 2022.
Domestic News
1. Ministry of Commerce, General Administration of Customs: Export control will be imposed on items such as antimony, which will be officially implemented from September 15, 2024. The Ministry of Commerce subsequently responded that the export control of antimony and related items is an international practice and is not aimed at any specific country or region.
2. General Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Vietnam and President Trong will visit China for state affairs from August 18th to August 20th.
3. National Bureau of Statistics: Adhere to the combination of digesting stock and optimizing increment, and accelerate the construction of a new development model for real estate. The decline in the year-on-year PPI in the second half of the year is expected to narrow.
4. National Bureau of Statistics: In July, the sales price of new commercial housing in first-tier cities decreased by 0.5% month-on-month, and the sales price of second-hand housing decreased by 0.5% month-on-month; the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 2.7% year-on-year, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, and up 0.35% month-on-month; the national urban survey unemployment rate was 5.2%.
5. The MLF due will be extended on August 26. Media interpretation: LPR and MLF are further decoupled.
6. Pan Gongsheng: The central bank will gradually weaken its focus on quantitative targets and further plan new incremental policies. Resolving the risks of financing platform debt has made important progress in stages.
7. The rumor that the SPV+ public offering investment scale of banks cannot exceed 2.5% of their total assets is not true, and financial regulatory authorities have not set a limit on the proportion of bank investment funds.
8. Has the tax preference for public debt funds been cancelled? Multiple institutions say they have not received any notices.
9. SAFE: In July, foreign investors net increased their holdings of domestic bonds by $20 billion, a year-on-year increase of 1.4 times.
10. Shanghai land auction implements "double high and double competition" for land blocks with high market enthusiasm.
Risk warning.
At 7:30 a.m., Australian Reserve Bank Governor Brock, Deputy Governor Hauser, and three assistant governors Hunter, Kent, and Jones will testify before the Standing Committee on Economics of the Senate.
At 8:30, New Zealand Reserve Bank Governor Orr gave a speech;
At 14:00, the UK's seasonally adjusted retail sales for July;
At 22:00, the initial expected inflation rate for August and the initial value of the University of Michigan's Consumer Confidence Index in the USA.