Source: Wall Street See
Authors: Fang Jiayao, Du Yu, Bu Shuqing, Li Xiaoyin
Retail sales and employment remain strong, easing concerns of a US recession, and the market is reversing its heavy interest rate bets. US bond yields have skyrocketed. The Nasdaq and small-cap stocks rose more than 2.3%, while the chip stock index rose more than 5% intraday. Tesla rose more than 6%, Nvidia rose 4%, JD.com rose the highest at more than 7%, and Alibaba opened low but briefly turned up 3%. The yen fell more than 1%, offshore renminbi fell more than 300 points, oil prices rose 2% intraday, and gold showed a V-shaped rebound.
All three major US stock indices rose, with the Nasdaq up 2.34% and small-cap stock indices up 2.45% leading the way. Technology stocks, chip stocks, and AI concept stocks all rose, and Chinese stocks generally rose:
US stock indices rose across the board and closed at new highs: the S&P 500 rose 1.61% to 5,543.22, the Dow Jones rose 1.39% or 554.67 points to 40,563.06, and the Nasdaq rose 2.34% to 17,594.5. Nasdaq 100 rose 2.46%. The Nasdaq Technology Market Cap Weighted Index (NDXTMC), which measures the performance of Nasdaq 100 technology stocks, rose 2.67%. The Russell 2000 Index rose 2.45%. The VIX index, which measures panic, fell 5.93% to 15.23.
US industry ETFs closed mostly higher. The semiconductor ETF rose more than 4%, and the global aviation ETF, optional consumer ETF, technology industry ETF, and global technology stock ETF all rose by about 3%, while the internet index ETF, regional bank ETF, and bank ETF all rose by at least 2%.
Most of the 11 sectors in the S&P 500 rose. The consumer discretionary sector rose 3.38%, the information technology/tech sector rose by 2.54%, and the raw materials and industrial sectors rose by at least 1.3%. The financial, telecommunications, and energy sectors all rose by more than 0.8%, while the real estate sector fell 0.34%.
The "Magnificent Seven" technology companies all rose. Tesla led the way, rising 6.34%, followed by Nvidia, which rose 4.05%. Over the past four days, it has risen by a cumulative 17%. Apple rose 1.35%, Microsoft rose 1.18%, Meta, which is known as the "metaverse", rose 2.01%, Google A rose 0.58%, and Amazon rose 4.4%.
Chip stocks rose collectively. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 4.87%, the industry ETF SOXX rose 4.81%, and the Nvidia double leverage ETF rose 8.03%. On Semiconductor rose 6.75%, TSMC ADR rose 2.35%, Intel rose 3.87%, AMD rose 4.7%, Qualcomm rose 3.7%, ASML ADR rose 5.53%, KLA Corp rose 5.52%, Arm Holdings rose 3.59%, Broadcom rose 5.35%, and Applied Materials rose 5.06%. Micron Technology rose 6.51%.
Most AI concept stocks rose. "AI monster stock" Super Micro Computer rose 8.59%, Dell Technologies rose 7.05%, Oracle rose 0.98%, CrowdStrike rose 1.67%, C3.ai rose 2.19%, Palantir rose 0.71%, BigBear.ai rose 6.61%, the AI robot delivery company Serve Robotics held by Nvidia rose 0.62%, BullFrog AI rose 11.67%, while Snowflake fell 0.2%, and SoundHound AI, an AI voice company owned by Nvidia, fell 0.6%.
Chinese concept stocks generally rose. The Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index rose 1.72%. In ETFs, the China Technology Index ETF (CQQQ) rose 1.6%, and the Chinese Internet Index ETF (KWEB) rose 1.65%.
In the popular Chinese concept stocks, Pinduoduo rose 2.18%, Netease rose 2.7%, Baidu rose 2.61%, Alibaba rose 0.09%, New Oriental rose 1.4%, Tencent Holdings ADR rose 0.59%, JD.com rose 4.25%, Li Auto Inc rose 2.13%, Jike rose 3.54%, Bilibili rose 2.14%, Xpeng rose 2.4%, and Nio Inc rose 2.96%.
Among other stocks that fluctuated significantly due to financial reports: (1) Cisco rose 6.8%, surpassing expectations for growth in the new fiscal year and planning to cut the global workforce by 7%. (2) Nike rose 5.07%, with hedge fund bigwig Ackman building up his position. (3) Ulta Beauty rose 11.17%, with the company receiving increased shareholdings from Berkshire Hathaway. (4) JD.com rose 4.25%, with the company's second-quarter net revenue and adjusted earnings per ADS exceeding estimates. (5) Alibaba rose slightly by 0.09%, with the company having a first quarter revenue of 243.24 billion RMB, estimated at 249.85 billion RMB. (6) Walmart rose 6.58%, with second quarter revenue and net income both exceeding expectations, and the full-year performance guidance raised. (7) Applied Materials fell 0.56% in post-market trading but then rose 0.55%, with sales in the third quarter meeting market expectations and AI driving the company's performance growth. (8) Lenovo Group ADR rose 1.11%, with non-PC businesses accounting for nearly 47% and reportedly reaching a new historical high, with Lenovo AI PCs shipping up to 228% higher according to Canalys' latest statistics.
Strong U.S. retail sales data eased concerns of economic recession, boosting European stocks after midday: The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose to a new high since August 2nd:
The pan-European Stoxx 600 index rose 1.15%, with the technology sector leading the way, rising 2.54%. Stock indices across Europe rose, with the German DAX up 1.66%, the French CAC up 1.23%, the UK FTSE up 0.80%, the Spanish IBEX up 1.23% and the Dutch AEX up 1.75%. The Italian, Greek, and Polish stock markets were closed.
"Recession trading" retreated and U.S. bonds roared upward across the board, with the 2-year Treasury yield soaring more than 13 basis points to 4%, and European bonds significantly rising along with U.S. bonds:
U.S. bonds: During the final trading session, the two-year Treasury yield, which is more sensitive to monetary policy, rose by 13.30 basis points to 4.0909%, with growth in retail sales and other data causing a frenzy and reaching a daily high of 4.1159%. The yield on the 10-year benchmark U.S. Treasury rose 8.17 basis points to 3.9169%, trading between 3.8257%-3.9513% during the day. Swiftly rising with the release of the U.S. retail sales data and weekly jobless claims survey at 20:30 Beijing time, breaking the earlier consolidation.
After U.S. retail sales data was released, European bond yields rose significantly: The major 10-year German bond yield rose by 8.5 basis points, the 2-year German bond yield rose by 11.0 basis points, and the 10-year French bond yield rose by 7.1 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Italian bond rose by 7.4 basis points. The yield on the 10-year Spanish bond rose by 7.0 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year Greek bond rose by 7.0 basis points. The yield on the 2-year U.K. bond rose by 8.6 basis points, and the yield on the 10-year U.K. bond rose by 9.8 basis points.
Economic recession fears eased, and the outlook for oil demand improved. WTI crude oil rebounded more than 1.5% to $78 per barrel, ending a two-day decline:
U.S. crude oil: WTI September crude oil futures rose from $76.98 per barrel yesterday to $78.16 per barrel today, up over 1.53% or $1.18 on the day. US oil remained up throughout the day, with US stocks hitting a new high midday, up over 2.1%, breaking through $78.6.
Brent crude oil futures for October rose from $79.76/barrel to $81.04/barrel, up 1.60% or $1.28 in the day. Brent oil continued to rise, with US stocks up nearly 2.1% at their midday peak of $81.50. Product structure, 10-30 billion yuan products operating income of 401/1288/60 million yuan respectively.
Investors are paying attention to the situation in the Middle East. According to CCTV News, the Gaza ceasefire negotiations began in Doha, the capital of Qatar, on Thursday, and Hamas was absent from the first day of talks. Hamas officials said that Hamas believed there was no need for further negotiations or a new agreement, but rather to force Israel to accept a ceasefire agreement proposed by the United States and agreed to by Hamas. The differences between the parties to the Gaza ceasefire talks in Doha, the capital of Qatar, remain serious, according to Egyptian sources.
Due to the escalation of tensions in the Middle East, US oil prices rose sharply by 4.19% on Monday. Although oil prices fell for two consecutive days on Tuesday and Wednesday due to US EIA crude oil inventories and IEA monthly reports, US oil prices rose by 1.7% for the week as of Thursday.
Henry Hub natural gas futures for September fell 0.99% to $2.1970/million BTUs.
US economic data added evidence of economic resilience, and a rise in the US dollar and bond yields weakened gold's rise. Spot gold plunged more than 0.6% after the US retail sales data was released.
COMEX December gold futures rose 0.6% to $2,494.7 per ounce. Before the US retail sales data was released at 20:30 Beijing time, spot gold hit a daily high, rising more than 0.9% to break through $2,470. After the data was released, the gold price fell sharply, hitting a daily low of more than 0.6% and bottoming out at $2,430.
COMEX September silver futures rose 3.9% to $28.405. Spot silver maintained its upward trend throughout the day, with short-term selling pressure after the US retail sales data was released and then continuous upward trend. At midday, US stocks hit a daily high, rising nearly 3.5% and breaking through $28.5.
Most London industrial metals rose. Dr. Copper, a leading economic indicator, rose nearly 2.01% to $9,148 per ton. London zinc rose by about 2.47%, London tin by about 1.71%, London aluminum by about 1.20%, London lead by more than 1.29%, and London nickel rose $43, while London cobalt fell more than 1.88%.
Editor/Jeffy