维持公司“增持”评级，维持目标价 115.43 港元，对应 2024 年6.2xP/E。公司2024H1 营收83.13 亿元人民币（单位下同），同比+10.64%，经调整后净利润26.18 亿元，同比+23.33%。考虑到公司风险指标改善和融资成本下降，调整2024-2026 经调整净利润为56/62/71 亿元（调前47/50/57 亿元），同比26%/11%/15%。维持公司“增持”评级，维持目标价为115.43 港元，对应2024 年6.2xP/E。Introduction to this report:
Profit growth is due to higher take-rate, and lower financing costs and improved risk are the main reasons for the increase in take-rate.
Key points of investment:
Maintain the company's “gain” rating and maintain the target price of HK$115.43, corresponding to 6.2xP/E in 2024. The company's 2024H1 revenue was 8.313 billion yuan (same unit), +10.64% year over year, and adjusted net profit of 2.618 billion yuan, +23.33% year over year. The adjusted net profit for 2024-2026 was 5.6/6.2/7.1 billion yuan (previously adjusted 4.7/5/5.7 billion yuan), 26%/11%/15%, taking into account the improvement in the company's risk indicators and the decline in financing costs. Maintain the company's “gain” rating and maintain a target price of HK$115.43, corresponding to 6.2xP/E in 2024.
Reduced financing costs and improved risk are the main drivers of profit growth. The company's 2024Q2 revenue increased 6.29%, mainly due to 1) a 42% year-on-year increase in financing revenue from credit-driven services to 1.69 billion yuan. The increase in financing revenue stemmed from an increase in the company's loan balance. We judge that the company's issuance of more ABS was the main reason for the increase in the balance of the balance; 2) referral service fees in platform services increased 288% to 0.624 billion yuan year-on-year, mainly due to the increase in the company's ICE business scale. In terms of profit, 2024Q2's adjusted net profit was 1.413 billion, 23% year-on-year. The increase in profit was mainly due to the expansion of the take-rate. The company's 2024Q2 takerate (average non-GAAP net profit/balance balance on loan) reached 4.4% (3.3% for 2023Q2 and 3.5% for 2023Q4), while the loan balance was 157.8 billion, down 14.5% year on year.
The continued expansion of the take rate is mainly due to the continuous decline in the company's capital costs and the improvement in risk, and the company's current financing costs continue to fall, reaching a record low. In terms of risk indicators, the 2024Q2 first-day overdue rate of 4.8% (Q1 was 4.9%) and the 30-day recovery rate of 86.3% (Q1 was 85.1%) have all improved.
Qualitative growth will be the core of the company's future development, and the repurchase schedule has exceeded expectations, demonstrating the company's confidence. The company's 2024Q2 credit investment scale was 95.4 billion yuan, or -23.2%. Of these, about 65% of loans were provided through a capital-light model. The company's credit investment was tightened against the backdrop of uncertainty in the macro environment. It is expected that in the future, the company will pay more attention to risk management and optimization of operational efficiency, which in turn will lead to profit growth. Furthermore, the company continues to advance the $0.35 billion repurchase plan. The current repurchase progress has exceeded expectations, and continued share repurchases demonstrate the company's confidence.
Catalysts: Improved asset quality and increased loan issuance.
Risk warning: The economy falls short of expectations; the non-performing rate has increased dramatically.