According to the report released by Guolian Securities, planetary roller screws and ball screws are mainly used in precision manufacturing such as machine tools and autos. Their application scenarios have rapidly expanded in recent years along with the development of China's high-end manufacturing industry. The mass production of robots may become a new growth point for planetary roller screws, and the steady recovery of another major downstream demand for machine tools. The planetary roller screw is mainly monopolized by overseas manufacturers, and domestic manufacturers are gradually realizing mass production and domestic substitution. The ball screw pattern is more dispersed, with a CR5 of about 45%, mainly by enterprises from Japan and Europe. Compared with reducers, the domestic screw industry is in the first phase of a niche track, waiting for the breakthrough of fundamentals and performance realization.

Planetary roller screws and ball screws have significant demand pull.

Screw is an important precision transmission component that converts rotary motion into linear motion and is mainly used for internal transmission in precision machinery. Screws are mainly divided into sliding screws, rolling screws, and hydrostatic screws. Thanks to their small size, high load, and long life, ball screws and planetary roller screws are the most widely used. Planetary roller screws are mainly used in precision machine tools, robots, and autos; ball screws are mainly used in precision manufacturing such as machine tools and autos and are used in precision instruments as a whole, and their application scenarios have rapidly expanded in recent years along with the development of China's high-end manufacturing industry.

The humanoid robot is the next new demand increment point for planetary roller screws.

In 2022, the global market scale of planetary roller screws reached 1.27 billion US dollars, and the compound growth rate from 2018 to 2022 reached 4.5%. In 2022, the scale of ball screws reached 14.9 billion yuan, and downstream mainly divided into precision manufacturing such as machine tools and autos. The scale of ball screws may follow the recovery of the manufacturing industry and grow steadily. The mass production of robots may become a new growth point for planetary roller screws, and the steady recovery of another major downstream demand for machine tools. Tesla's Optimus humanoid robot uses a total of 14 planetary roller screws, and with the corresponding price reduction of planetary roller screw, the market scale may exceed 10 billion yuan.

Planetary roller screws are waiting for domestic substitution and are in the first stage of the niche track.

The planetary roller screw is mainly monopolized by overseas manufacturers, and domestic manufacturers are gradually realizing mass production and domestic substitution. The top four suppliers account for about 80% of the market share and are all overseas leading companies. Domestic manufacturers such as Best, Nanjing Technology, and Bote Precision are gradually making their mark, realizing mass production and entering the mainstream supply system. The ball screw pattern is more dispersed, with a CR5 of about 45%, mainly by enterprises from Japan and Europe. Compared with reducers, the domestic screw industry is in the first phase of a niche track, waiting for the breakthrough of fundamentals and performance realization.

The comprehensive barriers are high, and there is room for improvement in multiple links such as technology and equipment.

The production barriers for the main components of planetary roller screws and ball screws are high, and manufacturers who achieve breakthroughs may maintain their competitive advantages. The high-precision processing of the main components of the screw is complex, and the processing accuracy is a necessary condition for ensuring accurate assembly and precise transmission. The heat treatment process and grinding equipment for precision processing have room for improvement for domestic manufacturers. In addition, the most important link in the high-precision planetary roller screw is grinding, and the required grinding machine is imported from Japan or Europe. At present, Best, Qinchuan Machine Tool, and Hengli Hydraulic have corresponding industrial layouts for planetary roller screws and ball screws.

Investment advice: pay attention to companies that achieve mass production and enter the mainstream supply chain.

The medium- to long-term demand for planetary roller screws is expected to explode in the robotics industry, and it is recommended to pay attention to companies that achieve mass production or enter the downstream leading enterprises' supply chains. Industry chain targets: (1) Hengli Hydraulic: the domestic leader in hydraulic cylinder and gradually opening the linear drive components department, the company is expected to enter the supply chain of Tesla's robots after achieving mass production; (2) Best: the domestic leading turbocharger component leader, Best is the first to achieve mass production in the field of ball screws and planetary roller screws, and provide samples to downstream machine tool and robotics fields.

Risk warning: industry technology breakthrough is lower than expected, the industry competition pattern changes significantly, and the business application scenario expansion is lower than expected.