随着在线音乐付费用户、ARPPU 双增，公司在线音乐收入在整体结构比重持续提高，利润率端有望持续优化。我们预计 24-26 年归母净利润分别为67/82/102 亿元(24-26 年原预测值为 66/80/94 亿元，因上调会员ARPPU、毛利率，下调费率调整盈利预测)。参照可比公司，给予24 年25 倍P/E，目标价53.17 港币(48.75 人民币)，维持“买入”评级。24Q2's revenue was 7.16 billion (yoy- 1.7%, qoq+ 5.8%). In 24Q3, we expect revenue to reach 7 billion (yoy +6.7%, qoq -2.1%). 24Q2's gross profit margin was 42.04% (yoy+7.77pp, qoq+1.10pp), mainly due to strong growth in revenue from music subscriptions and advertising services, and a gradual increase in original content. Q2 sales expenses were 0.21 billion yuan (yoy -0.47%, qoq +12.30%), which is basically the same as the same period last year. The company continues to manage promotion expenses by focusing on return on investment. Q2 General administrative expenses were 0.94 billion yuan (yoy -10.15%, qoq -1.16%), mainly due to a reduction in personnel expenses. Q2IFRS's net profit to mother was 1.7 billion yuan (yoy +29.58%, qoq +18.28%); Q2non-IFRS net profit was 1.9 billion yuan (yoy +22.50%, qoq +9.92%).
24Q2 online music service: 5.42 billion (yoy +27.65%, qoq +8.33%), mainly benefits from high-quality content, attractive member benefits, optimized user operations, and effective promotion measures. We expect Q3 revenue of 5.6 billion (yoy +23%, qoq +3.3%), and we expect 24-year revenue of 22 billion (yoy +27%). Q2MAU 0.57 billion (yoy -3.9%, qoq -1.2%); MPU 0.117 billion (yoy +17.7%, qoq +3.1%); ARPPU 10.7 yuan/month (yoy +9.94%, qoq +0.2%). We expect the ARPPU of Q3 companies to continue to increase as the penetration rate of the ARPPU membership package with higher SVIP increases, reaching 10.9 yuan/month, and MPU reaching 0.119 billion. 24 We expect membership revenue of 15.2 billion (yoy +26%) for the full year.
24Q2 social entertainment services: 1.74 billion (yoy -42.84%, qoq -1.42%). This is mainly due to adjustments to some live streaming interactive features and implementation of stricter compliance procedures, as well as competition from other platforms. We expect Q3 revenue to be 1.4 billion (yoy -30%, qoq -19%). The month-on-month decline is mainly due to continued tightening of corporate compliance combined with macroeconomic factors. Q2MAU 0.093 billion (yoy -32%, qoq -4.1%); MPU 0.01 billion (yoy +5.33%, qoq -1.25%); ARPPU 73.3 yuan/month (yoy -45.7%, qoq -0.2%).
With the increase in online music paying users and ARPPU, the company's share of online music revenue in the overall structure continues to increase, and the profit margin side is expected to continue to be optimized. We expect net profit to be 6.7/8.2/10.2 billion yuan for 24-26, respectively (the original forecast value for 24-26 was 6.6/8/9.4 billion yuan. Due to increases in member ARPPU and gross profit margin, the profit forecast is adjusted by lowering the rate). Referring to comparable companies, 25 times P/E was awarded for 24 years, and the target price was HK$53.17 (48.75 RMB), maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning
Risk of pattern reshuffle brought about by the launch of the Douyin music platform; risk of live streaming supervision; increased risk of competition within the live streaming industry