Source: Zhitong Finance "Since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%)." With the rebound of the stock market, the old adage "Sell in May and Go Away" seems to have been a bad advice once again. Last month, the S&P 500 index rose 4.8%, the best May performance since 2009. The NASDAQ 100 index rose nearly 6.2%, and the NASDAQ Composite Index rose 6.9%. Goldman Sachs FICC & Equities Trading Division said: "History doesn't really support this saying. Don't sell, leave the market (go on vacation), and enjoy the good times." The rising trend is still to be continued? If history is any guide, it may indicate that the rise of the stock market is not over yet. Looking ahead to the rest of 2024, Scott Rubner, Managing Director of the Goldman Sachs Global Markets Division and tactical expert, pointed out the following historical background for investors. Rubner stated that the S&P 500 index has risen 10.7% year-to-date, and since 1950, the S&P 500 index has risen more than 10% 21 times as of the end of May. In about 90% of these cases, the S&P 500 index rose for the rest of the year. There were only two instances of declines for the rest of the year, in 1987 (-13%) and 1986 (-0.1%). "Since 1950, the median return of the last 7 months of each year (June 1 to December 31) is 5.4%. In the aforementioned 21 cases, the average performance of the last 7 months increased to 8.1%." Rubner added. Rubner also pointed out that the NASDAQ index has risen for 16 consecutive Julys, with an average return of about 4.64%.

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said on Wednesday that due to recent progress on inflationary pressures and disappointing employment data, he is more concerned about the labor market than inflation.

Goolsbee said the current level of interest rates is "very restrictive" and that such a stance is only appropriate in the case of an overheating economy. He declined to comment on the possibility and extent of a rate cut at the Fed's September meeting.

When asked about the balance between inflation and labor market risks, Goolsbee said, "To some extent, I'm increasingly worried about the Fed's job in employment."

Before making the above comments, Goolsbee said Wednesday's data showed a key indicator of potential annual inflation slowed for the fourth straight month, while July's labor market data raised concerns that the Fed was cutting rates too slowly.

Although he pointed out that the recent rise in the unemployment rate may reflect more people entering the labor market, this could also be "an indicator that we are not stabilizing in a stable state, but rather entering a worse state in the short term."

He said, "If this situation begins to happen, then our focus must be more on employment."

Fed Chairman Powell and other policymakers have stated that they are increasingly focused on preventing a decline in the job market, which is different from the Fed's main focus on containing high inflation in recent years.

September meeting.

The market generally expects the Fed to cut rates in September, but investors and economists disagree on whether the cut will be 25 basis points or 50 basis points. Futures market data shows that traders are betting that the Fed will lower borrowing costs by a full percentage point from now until the end of the year.

Goolsbee declined to make specific comments on the September meeting, but did mention the Fed's recent economic forecasts for the interest rate-setting body, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). He said these estimates suggest that multiple rate cuts are appropriate by 2025, even if "conditions are less favorable than those we face now."

According to the median forecast in June, the FOMC expects only one rate cut this year, followed by four more cuts in 2025. The committee also estimates that the unemployment rate will average 4% by the end of 2024. However, the July unemployment rate rose to 4.3%.

According to the Fed's preferred gauge, the annual inflation rate has been lower than the 2.6% forecast in June.

Goolsbee said, "If the economy is or you believe the economy is slipping into recession, that will affect the speed of the rate cut." He added: "The specifics will determine the size of the rate cut."

Editor / jayden